Thursday, 28 October 2004

Arrogance

John Kerry has taken arrogance to a new level. How? He hasn't even beenelected, and now he isappointing his cabinet. What a disgrace. Now that I think about it, Iam not sure if it is arrogance or if he is suffering from one more delusionof grandeur. I hope the people on the fence hear about this and use their opportunity on Tuesday to reject the delusional New England Liberal arrogance of John Kerry.

Oh well, that just means even more prominent Democrats will be crying in their lattes when Bush takes the entire Mid-west and defeats Kerry withover 300 Electoral votes.

Posted by elendil at 11:41 PM in National Politics

Wednesday, 27 October 2004

Late Deciders Breaking Towards Bush

In a previous post, I predicted that the internals of the polls would showthe undecideds will break for Bush.

Those undecideds who decided to vote for Bush or Kerry will tend towards Bushbecause the polls show people fundamentally see Bush as a better presidentthan Kerry.

Now we are beginning to see evidence that my analysis was correct. Fromtoday's Rassmussenpolling data

However, those who decided in the past month favor President Bush by a 57% to38% margin.Our sample included 136 Likely Voters who made up their mind over the lastweek. These voters also appear to be breaking in the President's direction butthe small sample size prevents any definitive assessment.

This evidence deepens my belief that Bush will win well over 300 electoralvotes, and Kerry will be lucky to get 200.

Posted by elendil at 12:26 PM in National Politics

Monday, 25 October 2004

Senator Kerry's Fantasy World

There is an unbelievable story in the Washington Times about another make believeKerry story. What frightens me is that this is not the first time he hasembellished a story.

The first occurred when he told reporters that he had talked to a number offoreign leaders and they told him that they hoped he would win thepresidency. Of course, no leaders were named and none came forward to collaborate the story.

The second occurred on the Senate floor, when he stood before the chamber and recounted how his Christmas in Cambodia story was seared into his memory. This story turned out to be false. He spent Christmas in Vietnam on a base and was not even on patrol.

Other times he has talked about how he carries in his briefcase a hat from a CIA agent that he dropped off in Cambodia during the war. This is a bizarre tale that I doubt anyone truly believes.

Now we have Senator Kerry telling us in the presidential debates how he metwith all of the members of the U.N. Security Council one week before votingin October 2002 to authorize the use of force in Iraq. This turns out to befalse as well. The members of the panel have no recollection of ever meetingwith Kerry.

The uncanny ability of Kerry to make up fictitious stories to bolsterhis argument is frightening. It scares me to think that someone who suffers from delusions of grandeur could end up running our country. I am not sure how much play this will get in the mainstream media since they are continuing toprop up Kerry's failing campaign. But if the story gains any momentum,Kerry will not recover.

Posted by elendil at 12:19 AM in National Politics

Sunday, 24 October 2004

Election Turnout

I was reviewing polling data the other day when I came across this choicequote from an article about a recent Harrison poll.

Using one definition of likely voters, those who are registered to voteand are "absolutely certain" to vote, the poll shows President Bush with amodest two-point lead (48% to 46%). Using this definition but excluding allthose who were old enough to vote in 2000 but did not do so, President Bushhas a commanding eight-point lead (51% to 43%). This second definition hasproved more accurate in the past, but there are some indications that in thiselection many people who did not vote in 2000 will turn out to vote, in whichcase it would be wrong to exclude them.

I am not buying this notion that voter turnout this year is going to beheavier than previous years. Why? When high voter turnout occurs it iscaused by a single dominating issues of the day. The only issue that hasdominated the previous four years were 9/11 and the Iraq war. But when welook at a poll from Rasmussen on themost important issues to voters, National Security is well less than 50%.This means that only 38% of voters consider Iraq and 9/11 dominating issues.I would even be willing to argue that the 38% is composed of almostentirely Bush and Kerry base.

When thinking of how you will vote this November, which type of issues will be most important?
National Security 38%
Economic 25%
Domestic 17%
Cultural 8%
Fiscal 4%

I think this means that a majority of the country has "forgotten" about9/11 and the news in Iraq has become just another story. If this is thecase, then a majority (62%) see this race as nothing more thana typical election year dominated by the usual issues. This leads me toconclude that this presidential race will not have the historic voterturnout predicted. Which means that race will be decided upon whichcandidate can better motivate the base to vote.

Reading reports from the campaign trail it appears that Bush is doing abetter job of motivating the base while Kerry's baseis tepid is best. All of this information make me further believe thatBush will win this election easily.

On a weird note, polls out of Hawaii show that Bush has a narrow lead. This isa state that Gore carried by 15 points. If this is true, the momentum forBush is really starting to build and will only cause the Kerry doubt toget bigger.

Posted by elendil at 11:37 PM in National Politics

Friday, 22 October 2004

Internal Polling Data and the Presidentail Election

One of my favorite polling sites is Rasmussen Research because they provide daily tracking poll. I alsolike how they highlight the internals of the polls along with the horserace numbers. What I have noticed is a very consistent pro-Bush trend inthe internal data of the polls. Let's examine the data.

President Bush Job Approval 53
Bush Favorable - Unfavorable 52 - 47
Who is a Better Leader? Bush 50 - Kerry 40
Trust on Nat'l Defense? Bush 53 - Kerry 42
Trust to Manage Economy? Bush 49 - Kerry 45

What we can take from this data is that people are positive about the jobBush is doing and they personally like him. Also Bush is seen as betterleader, better on defense, and better on the economy by a healthy margin.These would suggest that people think Bush would be a better president thanKerry. Why then does Bush only lead in the polls 48.8 to 46.2?

The answer comes from the only number going against Bush, Is the countryheaded in the right direction? 43% believe country is heading in theright direction while 54% think it is going in the wrong direction. Thiswould mean that although they like Bush, they have a general feeling thatthe country is not headed in the right direction. I would add they don'treally know why they feel that way.

I believe this number shows how effective big media and the Democrats havebeen in convincing people how rotten it is in America. The problem theDemocrats have is that John Kerry's numbers suggest he is not the candidatewho can take advantage of this feeling of negativity.

This makes me think that the remaining fence sitters will do one of threethings come election day.

  1. A large number of undecideds are going to be put off by the negativityand not seeing a real "alternative" in John Kerry will stay home.
  2. 3rd party candidates will do better than polls suggest as undecidedswho don't like Bush but see Kerry as weaker will vote for one of the alternatives.
  3. Those who do decided to vote for Bush or Kerry will tend towards Bushbecause the polls show people fundamentally see Bush as a better president than Kerry.

I also believe that the Republican base is more motivated in this electioncycle because Bush is running a campaign focusing on defeating terrorismthrough American strength along with a positive message on the economy andmoral issues. The Democrats, on the other hand, are waging a negative warabout the state of America which is centered around there hatred for Bush. I do not see this as either motivational or sustainable.

These facts lead me to conclude that all of the toss up states will trend Bush and he will win, albeit closely, 35 states with an electoral victory of 349-189.

Posted by elendil at 2:21 PM in National Politics

Thursday, 21 October 2004

Hiking at the Breaks State Park

Every fall my wife and I take a two day hiking trip to eastern Kentucky. Wealways spend the first day at the Breaks State Park on the KentuckyVirginia border. (Yes they do touch) The Breaks features a 1600foot deep gorge know as the "Grand Canyon of the South".

The park has camping, a lodge, picnic areas, and of course trails. Thepark's trails consist of an array of short (1-2 mile) trails. Fortunatelythey intertwine so trails can be combined to make a longer hike. Jen and Iuse the following hike and highly recommend it to others who are lookingto hike the Breaks.

We start the hike behind Shelter #2. This is the beginning of the LoopTrail. We take this trail until it intersects with the Tower Tunnel Trailand the Prospectors Trail. At this point we detour 200 yards down theTower Tunnel Trail to get our first panoramic view of the canyon. Themajor features are a towering rock and a train tunnel bearing into the mountain below. Afterwards, we retrace our steps back to the Prospectors Trail and take it. The Prospectors Trail follows underneath the cliffs of the canyon wall and have some nice rock formations. We follow the trail until it intersects with the River Trail. The River Trail slowly winds down the side of the canyon until you reach the river's edge. This is an amazingly peaceful place to stop and rest as the water rushes past.

At this point we continue on the River Trail until it dead ends into the Grassy Trail. The Grassy Trail follows the Grassy creek.During this part of the trip you can see a number of water falls providedby the creek. Soon this trail runs into Laurel Branch Trail. Laurel Branch trail follows the branch back up to the top of the canyon. All 1600 feet. This is not an easy climb. Near the top, we departed from Laurel Branch to take the Geographical Trail. This takes you past some really cool rockformations until it ends at the State Line Overlook. The State Line Overlook provides a view of the both the gorge and the Virginia-Kentucky border. From there, we take the Overlook Trail which follows the top of the canyon back to Shelter #2. This final trail provides more incredible views of the canyon.

The amazing views, the rock formations, the waterfalls,and the sheer beautyof the forest around the trail as you travel down and out of the canyon make this the best hike in Kentucky. If you can make the hike in the fallwhen the leaves are turning, the trail becomes even more magnificent.

The only problem with the trail is that it is rocky in places so you willneed good boots for the hike. Other than that the trail is well marked andcleared of any major debris.

If you like to hike, then this is a trail that you shouldn't miss. Eventhough the hike is at times strenuous, I have to rate this as a five startrail. I don't know if I could find a better trail to hike.

Posted by elendil at 3:01 AM in Travel

Wednesday, 20 October 2004

Why Bush?

I remember driving into work the morning of 9/11, when I received a phonecall from an associate telling me that a plane had flown into the WorldTrade Center. I heard about the second tower strike from the radio. Iremember spending the day at work sitting around the television watchingreplays of the plane striking the tower, the towers burning, and the towersfalling. I vividly remember the horror, rage, and sorrow of the moment.I remember sitting on the verge of tears wanting revenge on those whoattacked us.

The one thing I remember thinking was "Thank God George Bush won thepresidency." In the days immediately after the attack, that thought wasechoed by friends and acquaintances who I know voted for Gore.

I could give a litany of reasons to vote for Bush

  • He supports appointing judges that strictly interpret the Constitution
  • He supports partial privatization of social security
  • He supports lower taxes
  • He promotes a culture of life
  • He supports the rights of gun owners

But the real reason I am voting for Bush is the steely resolve he showed in thedays following 9/11. His commitment to fighting and winning the war on terrorso we can be free from fear was a shining beacon to thw world. If we can remind people how they felt on 9/11 and then ask if they too thought"Thank God George Bush won". The decision becomes simple.

Posted by elendil at 12:58 AM in National Politics

Thursday, 14 October 2004

Bob Schieffer as Moderator

Bob did an absolutely awful job as moderator. It was embarrassing watchinghim lob softball after softball at John Kerry while he asked fastball afterfastball of Bush. Below are the most bizarre and egregious questions in theorder they were asked by Bob along with my comments.

And that is, will our children and grandchildren ever live in a world assafe and secure as the world in which we grew up? What is he talkingabout? Didn't we grow up in a world with fear of a nuclear war? a fear ofcommunism? I am not sure what he is talking about.

Both of you are opposed to gay marriage. But to understand how you havecome to that conclusion, I want to ask you a more basic question. Do youbelieve homosexuality is a choice? What the hell kind of question isthis? The issue of gay marriage is a real issue, but this is a questiontrying to trap Bush

Health insurance costs have risen over 36 percent over the last four yearsaccording to The Washington Post. We're paying more. We're getting less.Nice editorial of we're paying more and getting less. That comes rightout of the Kerry talking points

The gap between rich and poor is growing wider. More people are droppinginto poverty. Yet the minimum wage has been stuck at, what, $5.15 an hournow for about seven years. Is it time to raise it?This question fired me up more than any other question. The gap betweenthe rich and poor is growing wider? This is a flat out lie perpetrated bythe left for years and to add it into a question is a complete outrage.

Mr. President, I want to go back to something Senator Kerry said earliertonight and ask a follow-up of my own. He said, and this will be anew question to you, he said that you had never said whether you would like to overturn Roe v. Wade. So I'd ask you directly, would you liketo?Since the candidates can't ask each other questions, I guess it is okfor the moderator to ask the question for Kerry?

Senator, the last debate, President Bush said he did not favor a draft. Youagreed with him. But our National Guard and Reserve forces are beingseverely strained because many of them are being held beyond theirenlistments. Some of them say that it's a back-door draft.More Democratic talking points

Senator Kerry, after 9/11 -- and this is a new question for you -- itseemed to me that the country came together as I've never seen it cometogether since World War II. But some of that seems to have melted away. Ithink it's fair to say we've become pretty polarized, perhaps because ofthat would be your attitude on that?Gee, I wonder how Kerry will answer this one? This time we will putthe softball on a tee!

After going over the questions, I can tell you one thing for sure. BobSchieffer didn't do anything to lessen the charge that CBS is a biasedshill of the DNC.

Posted by elendil at 12:57 AM in National Politics

Bush vs Kerry - Round 3

As we came into the final debate, the pundits thought Kerry would dominatedomestic issues. I didn't think that would be the case. I thought Kerrywould pour on the doom and gloom and suggest bigger government was theanswer to every question and Bush's moderately conservative stands on theissues would be much more effective.

After watching the debate, it appears that I was proved right. As Ilistened to Kerry I was reminded of the Fed-Ex commercial where the actorskept saying they were "doomed" because they couldn't get their packagesdelivered. Every time Kerry opened his mouth all I heard was "doomed".Kerry's view of America was incredibly bleak, and all he had to fix it wasa plan to increase governments involvement. But as Bush said "a laundrylists of complaints is not a plan , and a plan is not to lay out programsthat you can't pay for.".

Bush on the other hand had a positive message for the future. A futurewhere government is not the answer, but the people empowered to act are thefuture of this country. Bush's positive view of the future continued:

  • He wants to continue to take the battle to the terrorists, and not treat it as a law enforcement effort.
  • He wants people to be able to control their own retirement
  • He wants people to choose their own insurance and to reintroduce competition to health care.
  • He wants to promote a "culture of life"
  • He wants to continue to close the education gap
  • He wants to educate people so they can compete in the jobs of the 21st century
  • He wants to make the streets safer by prosecuting criminals that use guns in crimes.
  • He wants to limit liability lawsuits which increase the costs of practicing medicine.

That is a positive vision of America that will be compelling to voters inMiddle-America. Bush was also more person than Kerry. His answers on thefaith and strong women questions showed a warm personal side that Kerrywasn't able to do. Heck Kerry didn't even mention his wife in his answer.The bottom line is Bush knocked Kerry out in this debate, and the momentumis clearly shifting back to Bush.

I want to close by highlighting the best exchange of the debate. In thisexchange Bush set up Kerry, Kerry bit, and Bush knocked it out of the park.

BUSH:
My opponent, the senator, talks about foreign policy.In our first debate he proposed America pass a global test. In order todefend ourselves, we'd have to get international approval. That's one ofthe major differences we have about defending our country.I'll work with allies. I'll work with friends. We'll continue to buildstrong coalitions. But I will never turn over our national- securitydecisions to leaders of other countries.We'll be resolute, we'll be strong, and we'll wage a comprehensive waragainst the terrorists.
KERRY:
I have never suggested a test where we turn over our security to anation. In fact, I've said the opposite: I will never turn the security ofthe United States over to any nation. No nation will ever have a veto overus.But I think it makes sense, I think most Americans in their guts know, thatwe ought to pass a sort of truth standard. That's how you gain legitimacywith your own country people, and that's how you gain legitimacy in theworld.But I'll never fail to protect the United States of America.
BUSH:
In 1990, there was a vast coalition put together to run SaddamHussein out of Kuwait. The international community, the international worldsaid this is the right thing to do, but when it came time to authorize theuse of force on the Senate floor, my opponent voted against the use offorce.Apparently you can't pass any test under his vision of the world.
Posted by elendil at 12:31 AM in National Politics

Wednesday, 13 October 2004

Bush vs Kerry - Round 2.5

I didn't get a chance to comment on the second debate for a couple ofreasons. On the night of the debate, I was attending a bourbon tastingparty and didn't watch my taping of it until I got home at 3:30am. Needlessto say, I didn't take any notes for commenting. The next day, My wife and Ipacked up for a weekend backpacking trip. When we returned Sunday night,I was to tired to write anything. So, I decided to wait until I previewedthe final debate before talking about the second.

In the second debate, Bush showed an energy level that was not there in thefirst debate. He came out swinging and really took it to Kerry which I amsure invigorated the base. Besides the energy, I knew that Bush had won thedebate when Kerry kept going back to the previous question whichwas a sign he was having difficulty saying what he wanted to say.

As for the content of the second debate, I had trouble following all of thenuances of Kerry's shifting opinion on Iraq which blurred the differencesbetween the two candidates. This was frustrating because I don't thinkKerry truly believes half the things he said. That to me was a bigger"nuisance" than Kerry's comments on Monday about terrorism.

It was on the domestic issues where the differences between the candidateswas more stark and less murky. Bush came across as a moderatelyconservative candidate while Kerry came across as a wacky leftistscandidate. Four positions really solidified this thought in my mind.

  • Kerry kept talking about raising taxes on the "rich" which of course is code word for everyone. He is also the last candidate since Mondale to run on a platform of raising taxes.
  • Kerry talked about socializing Health care which is a blatant attempt to try Hiliary care again.
  • Kerry talked about wanting to sign the Koyoto treaty which was filled with enough leftist environmentalism that would have cost our economy billions of dollars in regulations. The worst part is that much of impetus for the treaty was based on flimsy science and leftist propoganda.
  • Kerry also came out against the ban on partial birth abortions. This is a truly barbaric procedure where a child is pulled partially from the womb, killed and then left for delivery. That is the most extreme pro-choice position once can possible have.
Kerry's domestic agenda was the most leftist I have seen since Dukakis ran forpresident. Everyone keeps saying that Kerry's strength is the domesticissues, but I can not disagree more. His doom and gloom about a recoveringeconomy falls flat and the rest of his domestic policy is the same policiesthat have been proven failures over the last 30 years is a hard sell.

With this as a backdrop, we head into the third debate. The last twodebates have entailed a lot of slugging it out back and forth. What I amlooking for in this debate is who delivers a positive message about thefuture of the country. Kerry's campaign is based to much on doom and gloomto be able to carry such a postive message. So, I look to Bush to continueto contrast himself with Kerry, but in a way that reflects positive andsunny view of America's future.

Posted by elendil at 5:37 PM in National Politics

Adventure Hiking Trail

Jen and I went backpacking last weekend on the Adventure Hiking Trail in Wyandotte Forrest in Harisson County Indiana. The trail itself is 27 miles in length which was impossible for us to complete on our simple overnight trek. We entered the trail a mile from "Post C" and headed west for about four more miles. There we set up camp just off the trail on one of the ridges and enjoyed a peaceful night in the woods (with the exception of a couple of planes flying into and out of Louisville) The following morning we packed up and backtracked back to our truck.

The trail itself was well marked as it meandered up and down the hills ofSouthern Indiana. Every so often the trail crossed one of the many horse trails in the area which led us to encounter a number of horseback tours. The weather was perfect for early October and the trees were just beginningto turn providing a multitude of fall colors for our viewing. Although the trails go along a number of ridges, we encountered no panoramic scenes.

I only encountered two problems with the trail. The first complaint is about the trail conditions. In a couple of places we had to walk around downed trees and through bramble patches where the trail was not completelycleared. This complaint is minor compared to the fact that they had no easily available maps of the trail. This was annoying because we had no ideawhere we were or where we were going. We were able to guess our way into alovely weekend, but it could have been more enjoyable if we had a map to tell us our position on the trail.

All in all it is a good trail for backpacking and I would give it 3 stars . I would like to go back when I have more time and complete thewhole 26 miles trail.

Posted by elendil at 12:28 AM in Travel

Thursday, 7 October 2004

Hero

Hero is a movie about a valiant warrior who has rid the Qui-chin nation ofthree assassins who had plotted and attempted to terminate the emperor. The story starts with the "hero" telling his story to the emperor. The emperor doesn't buy the hero's original story, so the story gets re-told a number of times with a new twist occurring during each recounting.

Last Friday, I went and saw Hero. Once it ended, I had absolutely noopinion either way about this film. The story line was interesting andentertaining, the cinematography was incredible, and the fight scenes wereboth fantastical and full of action. The most incredible scene of themovie which highlighted both the cinematography and action was a fight scenein the falling autumn leaves. It was truly spectacular. In addition, thedirector's use of color to separate scenes and the panoramic views of thecountryside provided wonderfully appealing visuals throughout the movie.The only downside was the sub-titling which caused you to have to read themovie.

So you would have thought I loved the movie. Right? But for some reason Ididn't. I thought the movie was okay. Upon reflection, I know what botheredme about the movie. Its pace was to slow for starters, but moreimportantly, I had no emotional connections with the characters. Eventhough much of the movie develops the characters, I didn't reallycare what happened to any of them. The combination of those two elementscaused me to walk away from the movie shrugging my shoulders.

I would give this movie a rating of 3.5 stars out of 5

Posted by elendil at 11:52 PM in Cultural Events

Wednesday, 6 October 2004

Cheney vs Edwards

The vice presidential debate displayed clearly the contrast between thetwo campaigns. Cheney continued the Bush campaign's mantra of strength on the war on terror while maintaining that his opponents have wavered. Edwards on the other hand, continued his Monday morning quarterback assaults on the Bush presidency.

What was interesting about the debates was Cheney's evisceration of Edwards onthree key points

  1. The first and most damning occurred when Cheney said "A little tough talk in the midst of a campaign or as part of a presidential debate cannot obscure a record of 30 years of being on the wrong side of defense issues." This was a devastating comment that put front and center the abysmal voting record of John Kerry. And it is this liberal voting record that John Kerry himself has been trying to avoid. He knows it is one of the most liberal voting records in the U.S. Senate and liberalism will not play with the American electorate. If the focus stays on Kerry's voting record, the Kerry campaign will not be able to close the gap between him and Bush in the final four weeks.
  2. The second was Cheney's explanation of why Kerry voted for the war and against the $80 million dollar supplemental funding

    And with respect to this particular operation, we've seen a situation in which, first, they voted to commit the troops, to send them to war, John Edwards and John Kerry, then they came back and when the question was whether or not you provide them with the resources they needed -- body armor, spare parts, ammunition -- they voted against it.

    I couldn't figure out why that happened initially. And then I looked and figured out that what was happening was Howard Dean was making major progress in the Democratic primaries, running away with the primaries based on an anti-war record. So they, in effect, decided they would cast an anti-war vote and they voted against the troops.

    Now if they couldn't stand up to the pressures that Howard Dean represented, how can we expect them to stand up to al-Qaeda?

    This quote illustrates perfectly the flip flop nature of Kerry and why people can't trust him to be commander in chief.
  3. The final blow occurred when Cheney's talked about Kerry's degradation of our allies in the war on terror and how his remarks impairs our ability to fight the war on terror.

    You made the comment that the Gulf War coalition in '91 was far stronger than this. No. We had 34 countries then; we've got 30 today. We've got troops beside us.

    It's hard, after John Kerry referred to our allies as a coalition of the coerced and the bribed, to go out and persuade people to send troops and to participate in this process.

    You end up with a situation in which -- talk about demeaning. In effect, you demean the sacrifice of our allies when you say it's the wrong war, wrong place, wrong time, and oh, by the way, send troops. Makes no sense at all. It's totally inconsistent. There isn't a plan there.

    Our most important ally in the war on terror, in Iraq specifically, is Prime Minister Allawi. He came recently and addressed a joint session of Congress that I presided over with the speaker of the House.

    And John Kerry rushed out immediately after his speech was over with, where he came and he thanked America for our contributions and our sacrifice and pledged to hold those elections in January, went out and demeaned him, criticized him, challenged his credibility.

    That is not the way to win friends and allies. You're never going to add to the coalition with that kind of attitude.

    This provides a severe credibility gap on one of Kerry's key issues. Kerry claims that he alone would be able to build better coalitions with nations around the world. How can he accomplish that when he insults our closest friends.
It is important for Bush to continue to attack along these lines in the upcoming debate. If he does, Kerry will be forced into a corner with no life lines and will cause his campaign to fade in the final days leading upto the election.

Edwards on the other hand was long on FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt) and short on substance. All we got from Edwards was a constant drum beat of gloomand doom tied with the ancient tradition of liberal class warfare.

Let's get a taste of Edward's quotes and see if you don't agree

You know, we've taken 90 percent of the coalition causalities. American taxpayers have borne 90 percent of the costs of the effort in Iraq.
1.6 million private sector jobs have been lost
2.7 million manufacturing jobs have been lost
4 million more Americans have fallen into poverty.
The administration says over and over that the outsourcing of millions of American jobs is good.
we have gone from a $5 trillion projected surplus when George Bush took office to a $3 trillion projected deficit.
They promised they were going to put $2 trillion of the surplus aside from Social Security. Not done.
Roll back tax cuts for people who make over $200,000 a year; we will do that.
Here's the truth: I have grown up in the bright light of America. But that light is flickering today.

The Kerry-Edwards ticket has shown to be nothing more than nattering naybobs of negativity. Everything they spew forth is either negative about America or promoting liberal class warfare, racial divisions, or scaringsenior citizens.

The truth about the economy is it is recovering from a devastating recessionbrought on by the dot.com bust which was exacerbated by the attacks of 9/11.Job growth is up this year and the economy is growing again. The only drag on the economy is the high oil prices that will hopefully stabilize with afree Iraq. But the Kerry camp continues to deflate confidence in the economy.

Then they bring out the tired liberal play book and try some class warfare.This is done by stating that they only want to raise taxes on those makingover $200,000. It escapes the liberals that raising taxes will be a tax on small businesses filed as s-corps. And it is these small businesses that create over 70% of the jobs.

Of course the calls from the play book would not be complete without an attempt to scare senior citizens. They say that the Republicans are going to take away Social Security and the evil Republicans prefer drug company profits to providing drugs at an affordable cost. This is flat poppy-cock.

You think the play book of the left would get some new plays after 40 years, but alas they are void of new solutions. There think tank is on empty. I keep hearing that the domestic issues are a strong point for the Kerry camp, butI see it as a weaker position than their war on terror. No wonder they have decided to fight this election over the war on terror.

Posted by elendil at 9:50 PM in National Politics

Tuesday, 5 October 2004

The Magic of Campfires

This last weekend, my wife and I attended the fifth annual Fire in the Fieldparty. Fire is an party held at a friends farm down in Larue county Kentucky. Every year a group of friends gather at thefarm to enjoy a number of festivities. In the day hours the guys shoot guns while the ladies carve pumpkins. Once the guns are put away, we start the cookout and drinking. At dusk the drinking continues as we light a monstrous bonfire that sets the sky ablaze and the warms the blood (Or was the warmth from the alcohol? I would be willing to bet a bit of both). The whole event is a wonderful spectacle that I look forward to every year. Even with a full day of fun activities, it is the bonfire which makes the event special for me.

I don't know what it is about campfires, but they are my favorite part ofthe camping experience. Maybe it is the distance from the hustle and bustle of everyday life? It could be the shelter the fire's light provides from the loneliness and vulnerability of the dark. Or maybe it is the companionship of sitting around the fire chatting about anything and everything with friends? Or it could be the serenity provided by the fire's hypnotic dance? Or does the pleasure come from remembering child hood experiences of camping? I would be willing to bet it is a combination of these reasons. Regardless, the campfire provides a magical moment of peace for me that is found in few other places.

Posted by elendil at 1:02 AM in Travel

Friday, 1 October 2004

Question for Kerry

Kerry always talks about a coalition of nations is necessary for us to takeaction in the world.

If I had one question I could ask Senator Kerry it would be this:

If you thought a course of action was in the best interest for the United States, but the international community was against it, what would you do?

Posted by elendil at 9:45 AM in National Politics

Bush Kerry Debate Round 1

As I sat to watch the debate last night, I could feel the excitementan nervousness normally reserved for big sporting events. I was hoping thatBush would do well, and more importantly not make any mistakes. Of coursethere was nothing I could do about it, but it doesn't change the tensenessof the situation. This nervousness was evident among both candidates in theopening minutes of the debate. But they calmed down and were very articulatethe rest of the evening. So let's score this debate.

I thought Kerry came off as an academic. He reminded me of a professor whowas lecturing those in the audience. The thing that struck me was his lackof themes in the debate. He was all over the place on issues, trying to soundmore intelligent than coherent. As a result, I doubt anyone will rememberanything he said from the debate. The only themes I could deduce werethe following

  • The US rushed to war without a plan
  • We can do better
  • We must build multi-national relationships
The first two sound like Monday morning quarterbacking and contradict someof his statements form the last two years. His final point makes itsound like we should only move at the will of international opinion.

On the other hand, Bush was always on message and drove his themes homeearly and often.

  • Can't lead when sending mixed messages
  • Must go on the offensive to defeat terrorists
  • Iraq was a vital mission to spread democracy and make the world safer
These themes are much more resonant with strong leadership and makingthe US safer from terrorists than Monday morning quarterbacking.

Leading up to the debate, I was scared that Bush wouldsound inarticulate next to Kerry's silver tuonge. During the debate,Bush not only sounded articulate, but seemed to have a good grasp of theissues facing this country.

Bottom line, Kerry needed to do something spectacular to change the momentumof the campaign, and he failed. Bush hit home with the themes of his campaign while Kerry was all over the place. I suspect the trends in the polls will not change after this debate.

Posted by elendil at 9:26 AM in National Politics