Friday, 22 October 2004
Internal Polling Data and the Presidentail Election
One of my favorite polling sites is Rasmussen Research because they provide daily tracking poll. I alsolike how they highlight the internals of the polls along with the horserace numbers. What I have noticed is a very consistent pro-Bush trend inthe internal data of the polls. Let's examine the data.
| President Bush Job Approval | 53 |
| Bush Favorable - Unfavorable | 52 - 47 |
| Who is a Better Leader? | Bush 50 - Kerry 40 |
| Trust on Nat'l Defense? | Bush 53 - Kerry 42 |
| Trust to Manage Economy? | Bush 49 - Kerry 45 |
What we can take from this data is that people are positive about the jobBush is doing and they personally like him. Also Bush is seen as betterleader, better on defense, and better on the economy by a healthy margin.These would suggest that people think Bush would be a better president thanKerry. Why then does Bush only lead in the polls 48.8 to 46.2?
The answer comes from the only number going against Bush, Is the countryheaded in the right direction? 43% believe country is heading in theright direction while 54% think it is going in the wrong direction. Thiswould mean that although they like Bush, they have a general feeling thatthe country is not headed in the right direction. I would add they don'treally know why they feel that way.
I believe this number shows how effective big media and the Democrats havebeen in convincing people how rotten it is in America. The problem theDemocrats have is that John Kerry's numbers suggest he is not the candidatewho can take advantage of this feeling of negativity.
This makes me think that the remaining fence sitters will do one of threethings come election day.
- A large number of undecideds are going to be put off by the negativityand not seeing a real "alternative" in John Kerry will stay home.
- 3rd party candidates will do better than polls suggest as undecidedswho don't like Bush but see Kerry as weaker will vote for one of the alternatives.
- Those who do decided to vote for Bush or Kerry will tend towards Bushbecause the polls show people fundamentally see Bush as a better president than Kerry.
I also believe that the Republican base is more motivated in this electioncycle because Bush is running a campaign focusing on defeating terrorismthrough American strength along with a positive message on the economy andmoral issues. The Democrats, on the other hand, are waging a negative warabout the state of America which is centered around there hatred for Bush. I do not see this as either motivational or sustainable.
These facts lead me to conclude that all of the toss up states will trend Bush and he will win, albeit closely, 35 states with an electoral victory of 349-189.
