Sunday, 24 October 2004
Election Turnout
I was reviewing polling data the other day when I came across this choicequote from an article about a recent Harrison poll.
Using one definition of likely voters, those who are registered to voteand are "absolutely certain" to vote, the poll shows President Bush with amodest two-point lead (48% to 46%). Using this definition but excluding allthose who were old enough to vote in 2000 but did not do so, President Bushhas a commanding eight-point lead (51% to 43%). This second definition hasproved more accurate in the past, but there are some indications that in thiselection many people who did not vote in 2000 will turn out to vote, in whichcase it would be wrong to exclude them.
I am not buying this notion that voter turnout this year is going to beheavier than previous years. Why? When high voter turnout occurs it iscaused by a single dominating issues of the day. The only issue that hasdominated the previous four years were 9/11 and the Iraq war. But when welook at a poll from Rasmussen on themost important issues to voters, National Security is well less than 50%.This means that only 38% of voters consider Iraq and 9/11 dominating issues.I would even be willing to argue that the 38% is composed of almostentirely Bush and Kerry base.
| When thinking of how you will vote this November, which type of issues will be most important? | |
| National Security | 38% |
| Economic | 25% |
| Domestic | 17% |
| Cultural | 8% |
| Fiscal | 4% |
I think this means that a majority of the country has "forgotten" about9/11 and the news in Iraq has become just another story. If this is thecase, then a majority (62%) see this race as nothing more thana typical election year dominated by the usual issues. This leads me toconclude that this presidential race will not have the historic voterturnout predicted. Which means that race will be decided upon whichcandidate can better motivate the base to vote.
Reading reports from the campaign trail it appears that Bush is doing abetter job of motivating the base while Kerry's baseis tepid is best. All of this information make me further believe thatBush will win this election easily.On a weird note, polls out of Hawaii show that Bush has a narrow lead. This isa state that Gore carried by 15 points. If this is true, the momentum forBush is really starting to build and will only cause the Kerry doubt toget bigger.
