Wednesday, 27 October 2004
Late Deciders Breaking Towards Bush
« Senator Kerry's Fantasy World | Main | Arrogance »In a previous post, I predicted that the internals of the polls would showthe undecideds will break for Bush.
Those undecideds who decided to vote for Bush or Kerry will tend towards Bushbecause the polls show people fundamentally see Bush as a better presidentthan Kerry.
Now we are beginning to see evidence that my analysis was correct. Fromtoday's Rassmussenpolling data
However, those who decided in the past month favor President Bush by a 57% to38% margin.Our sample included 136 Likely Voters who made up their mind over the lastweek. These voters also appear to be breaking in the President's direction butthe small sample size prevents any definitive assessment.
This evidence deepens my belief that Bush will win well over 300 electoralvotes, and Kerry will be lucky to get 200.
Posted by at 12:26 PM in National Politics
