Monday, 1 November 2004
Election Night Scorecard
As we head into the final days before the election, it is time to puttogether the scorecard for next Tuesday's election. The scorecard takes thepolling averages for each swing state and places them in numeric order.With this data we can compare results from election night and see what thetrend is to pick the presidential winner as early as possible. So what doesthe data tell us?
First off Bush has 191 electoral votes to start with. These states includeAlabama, Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana,Mississippi, Montana, North Carolina, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma,South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virgina, Wyoming
For Kerry the base is 149 electoral votes whose states areCalifornia, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, NewYork, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington DC.
The states remaining are the swing states and the only ones we truly careabout on election night. Below is a list of swing states in the order ofthe polling data found on Real ClearPolitics. I am using the polling data from Saturday because that is thelast of the accurate data since weekends are notoriously pro-democrat andwe want the most accurate data available for making this chart. Since wehaven't seen any "late breaking" dirty pool these numbers will give us agood base to start.
Colorado (9) Bush +6.5 200Missouri (11) Bush +4.7 211West Virginia (5) Bush +4.0 216New Mexico (5) Bush +4.0 221Nevada (5) Bush +3.7 226Arkansas (6) Bush +3.0 232Florida (27) Bush +1.9 259Iowa (7) Bush +1.7 266--------------------------------------------- <--- Point Where Kerry WinsHawaii (4) Bush +0.9 270--------------------------------------------- <--- Point Where Bush WinsOhio (20) Bush +0.2 268Wisconsin (10) Kerry +1.0 248Minnesota (10) Kerry +1.7 238New Hampshire (4) Kerry +1.7 228Pennsylvania (21) Kerry +2.6 224Michigan (17) Kerry +3.3 203New Jersey (15) Kerry +4.0 186Oregon (7) Kerry +4.7 171Washington (11) Kerry +5.5 164Maine (4) Kerry +8.5 153
What to look for on election eve are states on one side of the line or theother going for the opposite candidate. If Kerry loses Ohio, Wisconsin, orPennsylvania Bush will likely win. If Bush loses Florida, Arkansas, or IowaKerry will probably win. It is interesting to note that Hawaii could be theswing state in this election, but I doubt it will come to it.
Now for some predictions. If I were a bookie, I would probably set theOver/Under for Kerry at 238 electoral votes. That would be about a 2-3point victory for Bush in the final vote count. Personally, I think Bush isgoing to win the silent majority easily and will win all of the mid-west.My electoral guess is Bush winning 348-190 with a 4-5 point margin in thevote count.
