Saturday, 30 September 2006

Gaining Readership

Brian Goetll from conservativeedge.com focused on three ways for growing your readership and make an impact.

First thing you have to do is your research. Places like kentuckyvotes.org are great resources to do that research. Call people involved in the stories and try to talk to them. You get better information and get them to read your site.

Secondly, you can use the MSM to get the information. You can take a story and read between the lines to view the issues from a conservative perspective. You can raise points that aren't being raised by the main stream media.

Lastly we need to cross link each other. Help each other out to make the entire community stronger.

David Adams from KentuckyProgress added to Brian's comments by saying that we as bloggers need to work with the media and help them to get out stories they may not have otherwise covered.

It is about contacts. Reaching out to people on both sides of the isle to get the story. You need to make it fun to blog on a daily basis.

And that is the key to gaining readership. Blogging on a daily basis is the promary way to getting people to come back again and again.

Posted by elendil at 2:47 PM in Political Issues
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kentuckyvotes.org

Caleb Brown from kentuckyvotes.org gave a presentation about his web site that tracks the voting records of politicians in Frankfort. His site has all votes (or lack of votes) by politicians in Frankfort.

Great way to find facts about politicians. Allows journalists/bloggers to fact check politicians that they cover. Excellent tool that all bloggers should utilize to hold politicians accountable for their actions.

Posted by elendil at 12:58 PM in Political Issues
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Are We Journalists?

Leland Conwway from Conservative Edge was next. His talk focused on "Are bloggers journalists?"

One of the problems with bloggers is that they can be very vitriolic in thier attacks (I know I have been known to do that occasionally) and in the process you limit your audience.

The downside to new media is that it allows people to insulate themselves from seeing the other point of view and thus it is difficult to grow your readership.

What Leland talked about was using the blogosphere as a way to convince people to your side. By being more fair and rid ourselves of the name calling and to try to be more journalistic in our approache we can engage more people into the process and win people to our cause..

By backing up and presenting facts you can gain credibility and allow you to sway other people's thoughts and gain readership outside of the "conservative camp".

One of the ways to do that would be to take some time to show people how you got to your opinion instead of just thowing up opinion. Show people both side along with your reasoning for your beliefs and you can win converts.

Interesting points.

Posted by elendil at 12:29 PM in Political Issues
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Blogging 101

The first presenter was Johnathon Gay.. He presented on on blogging 101.

He began the speech by giving us a short history of blog-o-sphere..Next he moved into the basics of web journaling (blogs)

Interesting points he made about running a bloging for people to remeber.

  • You can be sued for the content you create. So be careful what you say.
  • Need to publish in Internet time. This can be very difficult to do when you are working on a blog part time..
Posted by elendil at 10:56 AM in Political Issues
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Blogging Live

Today, conservative bloggers in Kentucky are gathering for the second annual bloggers conference in Lexington. I will be blogging it live. So stay tuned today to learn what happened.

Posted by elendil at 10:52 AM in Cultural Events
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Friday, 29 September 2006

Fletcher Cleared Again

Once again, the left's attempts to slime Fletcher have failed. The latest attempt was brought to you by Common Cause. They claimed that the Blackberry Fletcher uses was paid for by the Republican party. Therefore it is a campaign contribution and should have been reported to the registry.

Of course the registry board voted 6-1 to throw out the charge due to lack of evidence. Common Cause could not show that the Blackberry was used for campaigning. Therefore it is not an election violation. Nice try guys! Better luck next time.

Posted by elendil at 12:16 AM in Kentucky Politics
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Downard Stays Competitive With Abramson

Republican Kelly Downard raised $230,000 in a fund raiser yesterday. This money will allow him to make a late push in television advertisement in his attempt to unseat Abramson.

I have been impressed so far with Downard's grass roots efforts. Especially his ability and desire to campaign door to door across the city. Now he has to follow it up with an effective television advertisement campaign to reinforce his message. He is definitely outworking the Abramson campaign. Even so, I don't know if it will be enough to win this fall.

But as long as he can keep the race close, it will make it extremely difficult for Abramson to run for Governor next year. How can he win state wide if he can barely carry Jefferson County? That is good for Kentucky.

Posted by elendil at 12:06 AM in Kentucky Politics
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Thursday, 28 September 2006

Northup Continues to Dissect Amateur Yarmuth

The headline reads "Yarmuth: Northup dodges issues He says her ads are far-fetched". But when you delve into the details of the article, it reveals a story that is devastating to Yarmuth team.

First off, Yarmuth is trying to defend himself against the latest information advertisement from Northup. One that claims Yarmuth is for legalizing marijuana, lowering the drinking age, abolishing Social Security, and opposing an east end bridge. So what does he do?

He begins by denying the advertisements allegations. The only problem is that the Northup team has the ammo to back up their allegations. Making Yarmuth look like a complete fool.

He denied saying one of the quotes Northup's camp attributed to him from a primary debate: that by "doubling the employee payroll tax, and the employer contribution, that we can make Medicare solvent into the foreseeable future."

But Northup's campaign manager, Patrick Neely, produced a video yesterday showing Yarmuth making the statement, which was an issue in the Democratic primary campaign. And the congresswoman's campaign said it had accurately reflected Yarmuth's positions on that and other issues.

Ok, so denying is a bad idea. How about saying you don't remember saying what they claim?

Yarmuth also said he didn't recall advocating a tax on "large engines" in SUVs and pickup trucks, another claim in Northup's ad. But Neely produced another videotape from a March forum of the Coalition for the Advancement of Regional Transportation. Yarmuth said: "The single most significant thing I could do as a member of Congress would be to try to promote a tax on larger engines."

Hmm, ok that didn't work. How about saying your position has changed over the years.

Jason Burke, Yarmuth's campaign manager, said other statements made by Northup about Yarmuth's positions from his LEO columns are either out of context, draw inaccurate conclusions or are no longer relevant because they were made years ago.

By this point in the article I am laughing out loud. Who is running the Yarmuth campaign? The keystone cops? Yarmuth comes across as a complete slime. He is either denying things he said or "changing" his positions. Of course every time he denies something where evidence exists to suggest otherwise, he just confirms Northup's message about him.

The Northup team has totally out classed the Yarmuth team in every aspect of the campaign from fund raising to the execution of a coherent campaign strategy they have been superior. Northup's team is focused, prepared, and disciplined. I am not sure Yarmuth's bunch has any of those qualities. At this point, I don't see how Yarmuth gets more than 42% of the vote.

Posted by elendil at 11:30 PM in Kentucky Politics
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Tuesday, 26 September 2006

Economics of Disasters

My heart and prayers go out to all of those victims of the flooding this past weekend. I would also like to express my sympathy for all those whose homes were flooded. I know my parents were one of those who suffered from flooding and they live on a hill! The rain came down so fast it flooded the backyard and filled the window well. The pressure from the water broke the window spilling a inch or two of water into the basement. Heck, it even caused the cancellation of the great St. X / Trinity rivalry.

Unfortunately, this tragic event provides an opportunity to better understand basic economics. It is unfortunate that tragedies make great object lessons, but we must take every chance to learn a valuable lesson.

Some people will talk about all of the commerce that will be generated from the damage that was wrought by the flooding. Just think of all of the new furniture that will need to be bought. The carpet that will need replacing. The ruined appliances that will be replaced. It will be a regular bonanza to the the furniture, carpet, and appliance industry.

And they will be correct. A great deal of commerce will be necessary to replace goods damaged by the flood. They will see this as a good thing for the local economy. This time they will be wrong. In fact the flood will cause a net loss to the economy and the community.

How is that possible? There will be a lot of money spent! Well, let's back up a second, and take a look at an individual family and extrapolate to the entire community.

Let's say a family lost carpet, some furniture, and a washer and dryer. Since they didn't have flood insurance, they are going to have to replace everything at a cost of $6000. But before the storm, they were already planning on spending that $6000 to buy new winter jackets for their kids and put a down payment on a new car.

Since they have to pay to replace already functional goods they longer have the capital necessary to purchase the new jackets or the new car. The family decides to wait until the following year or the year after than to buy the jackets and car. So while the furniture, carpet, and appliance stores will have gains, the clothing store and car dealership will lose exactly what the others gained. And in addition, the economy as a whole no longer gains these new winter jackets or the new car. Therefore the economy's lost production of the jackets and car create a net loss to the economy.

If we expand this out to all of the families who lost because of the storm, the net loss to the economy would be quite large. And so, I will add the loss to our local economy to the other more tragic losses that occurred over the weekend.

Posted by elendil at 5:54 PM in Political Issues
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Treo Test

This is a simple test to see if I can blog from my cell phone. Not that I would use it a lot.But it is nice to know it is an option.
Posted by elendil at 12:20 PM in Cultural Events
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Monday, 25 September 2006

Update on Northup / Yarmuth Race

This has been a fun race to watch. It is easy to see how Northup continues to win tough races year after year. Her professional dissection of the Yarmuth campaign is a political treat.

First, Northup comes out and challenges Yarmuth on some of the issues. She points to his past writing in which he was against a gas tax cut, against the east end bridge, and against the prescription drug plan that passed Congress a few years back.

"Either he doesn't know what he's written or John Yarmuth will say anything to get elected," the TV spot claims.

So what does Yarmuth do? He whines to the media that Northup is "mud slinging".

Yarmuth said the ads took his words from old columns and "manipulated them to create false impressions."

....

Yarmuth said columns he wrote on a proposed gas tax and the bridges are irrelevant because circumstances have changed in the ensuing years, and he says his 2002 column on a prescription drug plan did not endorse the plan but only supported a bipartisan solution.

How sad is that? He comes off as a complete crybaby in the article. Especially when he confirms the ads by saying that "times have changed". In other words, my positions have changed to run for office and I don't think it is fair for my opponent to notice it!

Then after whining about mud slinging, his campaign produces a slimy hit job on Northup.

Two days after accusing U.S. Rep. Anne Northup of mudslinging, Democratic challenger John Yarmuth began airing a radio ad yesterday saying Northup supported laws that allow workplace discrimination.

The ad, broadcast on stations popular among blacks, said Northup "even tried to make it harder for us to vote."

But that line has been in the ad because the production studio sent the wrong tape to stations, said Jason Burke, Yarmuth's campaign manager. He said the correct version was sent to stations late yesterday.

....

But Burke said that Northup didn't vote on extending the Voting Rights Act of 1964 because it took place only days after her son died in July. Because there was no documentation to back up the statement about "making it harder for us to vote," that version of the ad wasn't supposed to run, he said.

....

Yarmuth's replacement ad has a new line saying, "John's a lifetime member of the NAACP," Burke said.

Of course the line which "wasn't supposed to go in" was a direct slander against Northup. It was a cheap shot to make Northup look like she is suppressing blacks. Of course, the Dems say it was a mistake, but we all know it wasn't a mistake. It was done on purpose so that it would get "free" media and they would never have to run again. It is the same dirty trick politics that Lyndon Johnson pulled against Barry Goldwater.

The problem is the ad indeed backfired.

Danny Briscoe, a Democrat and longtime political consultant not involved in the race, said the ad will "further define (Yarmuth) as a liberal Democrat."

"It's obviously an attempt to get every black vote he can," Briscoe said, adding that blacks will continue to vote overwhelmingly for Democrats but that Northup has made inroads in that area.

Raoul Cunningham, president of the Louisville chapter of the NAACP, said the ad is fair "if it's accurate." But he said citing her support for a law allowing religious discrimination is a stretch because the ad is directed at racial discrimination.

Ouch! The funny thing is this ad ran just a couple days after Yarmuth was complaining about "mud slinging" by his opponent. She runs a piece that is true, while he plays dirty pool. Can we say hypocritical?

So what does Northup's campaign do next? She continues to press Yarmuth on articles he wrote for the LEO.

Northup held a press conference Friday to unleash new TV and radio ads and a campaign Web site devoted solely to expose "goofy" positions she says Yarmuth has held.

She cited Yarmuth for once having endorsed abolishing Social Security, getting rid of "Under God" in the pledge of allegiance, doubling the payroll tax, legalizing marijuana and lowering the drinking age.

Of course, Yarmuth is in a no one situation. He can either accept that he believes policies he previously wrote or "change his mind" on the issues. He chose the later.

Yarmuth didn't respond Friday to Northup's attack, instead letting his campaign manager, Jason Burke, say that none of those ideas represent Yarmuth's current positions.

Flip flop. Flip flop. At this point Northup has Yarmuth completely on the defensive. What does she do next? She continues to press her position without mercy.

Her campaign continued its focus on his record yesterday at the Fairdale Parade in southern Jefferson County, a major draw on the political campaign circuit.

...

Ahead of Yarmuth's group, Northup supporters passed out fliers along the route to people huddled under umbrellas.

Headlined, "Yarmuth?" above his picture, the flier included quotes attributed to him, including one under his picture: "I don't have a lot of friends in Louisville's South End, blue collar neighborhoods either. I also don't go into those neighborhoods either."

The quote ends, "But none of these facts carry implications beyond the simple fact that I don't go there. It is undeniable that people want to be with people who have common interests."

Wow! So much for the south end vote. At this point it is fair to say that Northup has completely out classed Yarmuth across the board in this race. Yarmuth keeps trying to change the topic back to Bush and the Iraq war, but his attempts have been completely ineffective. Instead he is continuting to defend his numerous editorials. At this point Northup has total control over the race. It has been amazing to watch.

Posted by elendil at 8:44 AM in Kentucky Politics
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Tuesday, 19 September 2006

Price of Gas

For some time now I have been preaching three things about gasoline. First that the gas prices were artificially high and would eventually drop. That the drop in gas prices will help the Republicans in the fall elections. And finally that people are irrational when they worry about the fluctuations in the gas price. Now I am starting to find proof to back up my assertions.

First off, I have thought that the oil prices were artificially high and that we would see an oil bust that would send gas prices back down to more reasonable levels (around 1.50 a gallon). Well, low and behold it looks like it is beginning to happen and the drop could be more severe than I thought.

The recent sharp drop in the global price of crude oil could mark the start of a massive sell-off that returns gasoline prices to lows not seen since the late 1990s ��� perhaps as low as $1.15 a gallon.

Why? Because people were scared there would be a disruption in oil production from either problems in Nigeria, the Middle East, or another large scale hurricane in the gulf. This lead oil traders to bet that prices would continue to go upward. Which led oil consumers to stock pile oil in case of future shortages. Now that the summer crunch for oil is over, the demand for oil will go down. Combine that with the over supply and prices will dip dramatically.

Next, I said that the drop in gas prices would improve the fortunes of Republicans this fall. Well we are beginning to see the results of gas price drops. In the latest Gallup USA poll, Bush's approval numbers are at 44% and the generic congressional Dem vs Rep ballot is tied at 48%. Both are way up from where they were just a month ago before gas prices fell.

Why? Because all of the supposed anger about the Bush administration is really centered around a simple pocket book issue... the price of gas. It seemed high and people freaked out about it. Now that prices are returning to normal, people are back to more traditional issues that consistently favor Republicans. Mainly national security, immigration, and taxes.

Lastly I have talked about the irrationality around people and gas prices. Well, OmniNerd has an article which quantifies the irrationality behind the worry of gas prices. The reality is that you can save more money than is spent on gas if you would just be picky about other goods you purchase were price volatility is much greater (such as food goods). I highly recommend the article to those who want to see the math behind such rationality.

Posted by elendil at 11:05 PM in Political Issues
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Monday, 18 September 2006

Updates on the 2007 Gubernatorial Race

After returning from vacation and reading the news, I am reminded of a quote by Han Solo from Return of the Jedi.

I'm out of it for a little while, and everyone gets delusions of grandeur!

First we have Pence "seriously considering" a challenge of Fletcher in next year's Republican primary. He believes he can be the "alternative candidate" to Fletcher.

"I think people in the party are looking for an alternative if the governor continues to run" for re-election, Pence said in an interview with the Herald-Leader. "That's why I'm going to give serious consideration to being that alternative."

He said he hopes to announce his decision on running for governor "fairly soon" -- potentially as early as the end of this month.

Ok, there is a great campaign strategy. He is going to side with Stumbo in the investigation of Fletcher and make that the centerpiece of his campaign. That is a great way to win over the faithful. I am sure he may get a few of the party structure, but that doesn't make the type of grassroots campaign needed to topple a sitting Governor.

But delusions of grandeur does not end with Pence, it also extends to Mayor Abramson. It appears that he is also considering a run for governor.

But his increasing political stops around the state have many people speculating about his political future, even as the Democratic mayor remains noncommittal about his plans.

In recent months, Abramson has held political fundraisers from Henderson to Crescent Springs to Lexington, fueling speculation that he is planning a run for governor.

He's spoken to groups across the state and even met in Washington with U.S. Rep. Ben Chandler, D-6th District -- another potential gubernatorial candidate.

First off, he still has to win his mayoral race. But even if he does win it handily he has serious handicaps running for state wide office. The biggest of which are his controversial stances as mayor of Louisville. Being for gun control and the fairness amendment are going to be devastating in trying to win votes outside of the liberals in Louisville and Lexington. Those two small groups are hardly the base needed to win a state wide race.

Maybe my return will bring some sanity back to the political landscape in Kentucky.

Posted by elendil at 11:26 PM in Kentucky Politics
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Friday, 8 September 2006

Out the Next Week

I'll be unable to post anything next week because of work. I'll be back to posting again the following week.
Posted by elendil at 12:53 PM in Announcements
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Deconstruction of Yarmuth

The Northup campaign is starting to put the screws to the Yarmuth team. The current issue is the debate over the bridges. Yarmuth is claiming he is for both bridges, but what do you know. His previous comments and actions speak to the fact that he was against the east end bridge from the beginning.

Unfortunately for Yarmuth, the Courier chronicled all of his times he spoke out against the east end bridge.

Why would anyone have have opposed an east end bridge? It is the logical place to put a bridge. Look at a map. Both sides have roads that end near the river and are lined up with each other.

So why would he be opposed to an east end bridge?Because it was going to bring the highway through his "back yard". They snooty rich didn't want the highway going anywhere near their million dollar estates. Talking about east end snootiness.

This is tip of the iceberg of the many issues where Yarmuth is going to come off as a rich east end liberal. One that is not representative of this mildly conservative district. The major reason the national Democrat's didn't put any money into this race.

Posted by elendil at 12:40 PM in Kentucky Politics
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Thursday, 7 September 2006

Grayson Will Not Challenge Fletcher

Today, Grayson confirmed his decision not challenge Fletcher in the primary. This move comes as no surprise to me. A Grayson candidacy would be riddled with problems. The first would be the fact that his only legitimate issue of difference with Fletcher would be the Stumbo witch hunt. Otherwise they share similar ideologies on the most pressing issues of the state. The only room he has to differentiate himself would be to side with Stumbo. That isn't a side that will be popular in a Republican primary.

Secondly, his candidacy would divide the state party. In the process, Grayson would make enemies with people he would need to win the general election. And if he losses the primary, he would be blamed for wounding our sitting Governor. Such a charge would make it near impossible to make a future bid for Governor and hope to survive the primary. So Grayson is doing the right thing by seeking re-election for Secretary of State. That way he will be seen as a team player which puts him in a much stronger position to challenge for the Governorship in 5 years.

With Grayson pulling out of the race, it confirms my suspicion that no serious contender will challenge Fletcher in the primary. So now we have to wait and see who the hopeful Democratic challengers for next November's race will be.

Posted by elendil at 11:19 PM in Kentucky Politics
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Wednesday, 6 September 2006

Is This The Best the Democrats Have to Offer?

I was reading the Lexington Herald's coverage of the 2nd Senate District race in Kentucky. This race is interesting because it is a three way race between independent State Senator Leeper, Republican Neil Archer, and Democrat Carroll Hubbard. Wait a second. Carroll Hubbard????

The last time we heard from Mr Hubbard, he was resigning his congressional seat to spend two years in federal prison for campaign violations. Now he is seeking "redemption" by running in the 2nd District seat.

So the best the Democrats have to offer in Western Kentucky is a former felon? The cupboards must really be bare in the Democratic pantry if they have to recycle this guy in an attempt to pick up a senate seat. And people think Republicans have problems with Fletcher? The Dems can't even field a candidate without a criminal record. And a criminal record for crimes committed the last time he held political office to boot.

Now wonder the Republicans think they have a chance to win this seat.

Posted by elendil at 11:36 PM in Kentucky Politics
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Friday, 1 September 2006

Another Thing Fletcher's Accomplished

I was flipping through the Lexington Herald's site today and came across a small article on the sentencing of a fellow from Barbourville. The man was convicted of using state credit cards to make personal gas purchases. He was sentenced to five years in prison and forced to repay the $2000 he stole from the state.

This story reminded me of yet another accomplishment of the Fletcher administration. Fletcher's team has done a good job cracking down on misappropriation of state credit cards. He has done a commendable job cleaning up the sloppy practices left over from previous administrations. Practices that cost taxpayers thousands of dollars each year in fraudulent purchases. But we don't hear much about those successes. Do we.

Posted by elendil at 5:51 PM in Kentucky Politics
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2nd District Race Update

The Lexington Herald again does it's job in the war against Republicans. This time with a piece that tries to help Weaver's floundering campaign against Ron Lewis. My favorite line from the article is from Scott Lasley.

Scott Lasley, assistant professor of political science at Western Kentucky University, says Lewis is considered the favorite and that Weaver has to hope for a strong Democratic surge nationally.

"I think Weaver is still looking at the potential that if the right scenario emerges and there's enough of a national tide, that there will be enough people on board," Lasley said. "But I don't think there's any indication that a lot of that has happened."

I think by tide, he really means Tsunami. Because it would take a Democrat tidal wave to unseat Lewis in the second district. I know the Herald wants us to believe this election cycle is like 1994, but the facts don't bare it out. The election in 1994 was a national correction for the political leanings of the country.

KY's 2nd District is a perfect example of that realignment.Most in that district are more politically aligned with national Republicans than national Democrats. Once the seat opened up, it naturally went to the Republicans. For that reason, Lewis will win this election with 60% of the vote.

Posted by elendil at 5:30 PM in Kentucky Politics
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