Wednesday, 18 October 2006
4th District Update
« 2008 Presidential Field Narrows | Main | 2nd District Update »As we come down the stretch in this campaign season, it is good to take stock as to where the key races in Kentucky stand. The hottest race is probably the 4th district in Northern Kentucky. One that pits Republican Congressman Geoff Davis against former Democratic Congressman Ken Lucas.
The latest polls shows incumbent Davis with a three point lead, 47-44, over Lucas. The problem for Lucas is that he had a 9 point lead in July and a 4 point lead last month. All of the momentum appears to be with Davis as we head down the down stretch.
The question I have is can Lucas turn the momentum around? I don't think so for two reasons.For me the biggest reason Davis will win is because he has brought the most passion to the campaign. When he was down 9 points in July he hit the road and campaigned in every county in his district. Meanwhile Lucas has limited his appearances. During the same period Davis out raised Lucas almost 8 to 3. Davis still has $1.6 million dollars cash on hand while Lucas barely has $400,000. That is an 4 to 1 advantage heading towards November. It is hard to regain momentum while being outspent by that type of margin.
Secondly, what I call the Nancy Pelosi factor is in play in this race. Many in the district are worried about voting for Lucas just to see Nancy Pelosi become speaker of the house. While they may like Lucas, they really don't want a San Fransisco liberal being the next Speaker. Once again the drag from the national Democrats will keep a conservative Democrat like Lucas from gaining the cross over voters he is going to need to steal this election.
But for me the big issue is the lack of passion and drive emanating from the Lucas campaign. I don't know if it is his age or what, but he doesn't appear to have the energy or commitment necessary to unseat Davis. And for that reason, I think Davis will win this race by 5 to 10 points.
