Wednesday, 7 March 2007
Legislature Decides Fate of Next Years Gubernatorial Election
The fate of House Bill 224 and House Bill 476 will have a tremendous impact on who will be elected Governor in November. What are these Bills? HB 224 would eliminate a primary run off if none of the candidates garner 40% of the vote total. While HB 476 would help to fund the primary run off if it were to occur this year.
Why does a primary run off matter? In the Republican primary it matters little. I doubt that Harper can garner the 20% of the vote necessary to force a run off. But the Democratic primary is a different matter. With seven candidates and no clear cut front runners, they are almost assuredly headed towards a primary runoff between the top two vote getters.
So what? That means that no candidate can sneak in with say 25% of the vote and win the primary outright. They would have to come back one month later for a run off election. Not only would they have to be able to get enough votes to get in the top two, they would also have to both the appeal to gain a majority of Democratic voters and the financial backing necessary to organize and fund the short election cycle.
Money is the gasoline that fuels political elections. And the money issue would be deadly to all but a few Democratic candidates. Obviously Lunsford has the money. I suspect Beshear, Henry, and probably Richards would also have the money for a quick turn-a-round. On the other hand, I doubt Miller and the rest of the pack have the money to be able to stage a successful challenge in a run off.
On top of that I think Miller's appeal to the left would cost him in a two person race for the Democratic primary. Unless his opponent is Lunsford, the more moderate Democratic majority would see Miller defeated. While Lunsford has the money to compete, I believe he has way to many negatives and a mound of bad will built up to be able to win a two person primary. So if the current favorite HB 476 passes, the Democratic primary will begin to come into focus. In this case I would put my money on either Beshear, Henry, or Richards.
Now if things change and HB 224 passes, the Democratic primary will be a free for all with anyone having a legitimate chance to come away with a small percentage victory. It will be interesting to see what the legislators do.
