Monday, 12 March 2007
Republican Gubernatorial Primary
The Republican primary up to this point has been quite boring. Northup has gone negative right from the beginning. Her only hope for winning is two fold. The first step is to drive up Fletcher's negatives and lower his polling numbers through relentless attacks. She needs Fletcher to get involved in the tussle with the hope of turning off voters from going to the polls in May. A low voter turnout is essential for her to have any chance of winning. In a low turn out her teams superior mobilization efforts will giver her the edge on Fletcher.
So far her attacks have been relentless.
Northup now regularly describes the governor's record with references to pardons, indictments and the governor invoking his 5th Amendment right not to testify to the grand jury that investigated allegations of improper state hirings. And she often reminds GOP audiences that all of that came after Fletcher promised in 2003 to "clean up the mess."
"They're having trouble with the truth, and that's what got them in this position to start with," Northup said at a recent stop in Owensboro to announce that Lt. Gov. Steve Pence was endorsing her.
Despite Fletcher's powers of incumbency, it has been Northup's no-holds-barred approach that so far has defined the three-candidate Republican primary race for governor.
Unfortunately for her, Fletcher has not fought back. In fact he continues to run a fairly upbeat campaign. His positive themes come through in his first television spot.
The commercial���s message reinforces Fletcher���s two main arguments for a second term: that he���s been unfairly dogged by political opponents and that his administration deserves a second term because of policy accomplishments over the last four years.
The ad begins with a dark-haired boy in glasses, resembling a young Fletcher, walking across a school yard while his peers yell and taunt him.
���Day after day he took it. He didn���t punch because fighting���s not his way,��� the announcer says. ���He held his head high, so in his own determined way, he won.���
The spot then cuts to the Capitol, showing Fletcher at work through his office window.
���That���s how it���s been for two long years for our governor,��� the announcer continues. ���He did his job, and Ernie Fletcher did it well.���
Several points that Fletcher is billing as his administration���s main accomplishments then flash across the screen, such as ���booming economy,��� ���budget surplus��� and ���tax breaks.���
By focusing on the state of the economy, Fletcher is able to sell himself as the man who has lead Kentucky through prosperous times the last four years. Heck, he was even able to accomplish it with people from both sides of the political isle trying to bring his administration down. It is a clever ad brilliantly executed ad.
The positive messages from Fletcher means two things. First off, he must be leading in the polls. The only reason he can continue to be positive is that he must hold a comfortable lead in the polling data. Usually the only reason a person goes negative is because they are trailing in the polls and they need to bring the other candidate back to them. Which is probably why Northup continues to attack Fletcher while Fletcher remains above the fray. None of which is really all that surprising.
Secondly, Fletcher's commitment to an upbeat message has made the Harper campaign irrelevant. His only hope was to remain positive while Fletcher and Northup beach each other over the head. Without that scenario, his campaign will remain a foot note in this race.
Personally, I feel the window of opportunity is beginning to slide shut on Northup. If the numbers don't tighten soon, her campaign will be based entirely on negative attacks. I don't believe that a negative campaign in a primary will resonate well with many Republicans in the state. If she can't get Fletcher to engage her by the middle of April her campaign will have zero momentum heading into the final days which will probably cause her campaign to fade.
So, until the status quo changes, this race will remain boring.
