Wednesday, 6 June 2007
Polling the Governor's Race
The numbers came out last week for the Governor's race. SurveyUSA had the race at 62-34 for Beshear which seems a bit off base. The more reliable Rasmussen Poll had the race at 51-35. If the election were held today, I suspect Beshear would win by 20 points. At the moment, things are looking bad for Fletcher's reelection chances.
The primary showed us two things about polls. If the numbers remain static as they did on the Republican side then we can make accurate predictions about the race. If they change from week to week as they did on the Democratic side then the polls have a difficult time accurately predicting the outcome.
So the thing to watch in the upcoming months is will the polls show signs of movement. For Fletcher to win he is obviously going to need create some fluidity in the current polls. When looking at the poll internals, there is reason to believe he can gain traction.
Both SurveyUSA and Rasmussen had large numbers of Republicans (35% and 25% respectively) voting for Beshear. This is understandable immediately after a bitter primary. And the numbers reflect this with 50% of Northup and Harper supporters in the SurveyUSA poll saying they will vote for Beshear. Will they still cross over? As liberal as Beshear is, I find it hard to believe that 30% of Republicans in Kentucky would vote for him. Not if they call themselves Republicans. Now assuming that Republicans make up 40% of the electorate and if 80% of the Republicans who say they will currently vote for Beshear come home, then Fletcher would be in a virtual dead heat right now. Below is the totals if 80% of Republicans who currently support Besehar switch back to Fletcher.
| Fletcher | Beshear | |
|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 45 | 51 |
| Rasmussen | 43 | 43 |
The other key category will be moderates. Currently, according to SurveyUSA, Beshear has 75% of the moderates support in Kentucky. As these people begin to focus on the race, how will they react to Beshear's fairly liberal agenda of socialized health care and legalized gambling.
There is definitely room for Fletcher to close the gap and gain the momentum to surge into a victory this November. The only question that remains is can Fletcher's campaign make it happen? Can he generate the momentum to swing the race back to him? The opportunity is there.
