Saturday, 23 February 2008

In a Pickle

When we first started hearing Beshear decry the state's financial situation, I knew immediately that the reason for the dire predictions was to promote casino gambling. Just last week, Beshear told college students that he wouldn't have to cut college education if casino gambling legislation passed.

Addressing several hundred raucous students from the state's eight public universities, Beshear said that higher education is a top priority for his administration but that more revenue is needed to pay for it.

"This budget does not contain enough money for higher education," he said.

Beshear told the group he has proposed a revenue source -- casino gambling -- that could bring in as much as $600 million more to the state each year.

Beshear thought he would be able to rally all the Democrats to his casino bill. Of course, I knew that the law of unintended consequences would strike. It turns out the "shortfall" only prompted tax and spend Democrats in his party to use it as an excuse to call for higher taxes.

It hasn't taken long as the chairman of the House budget committee talked Friday about raising taxes as much as $400 million.

The chairman of the House budget committee said yesterday he hopes to craft a tax bill that could raise as much as $400million in annual revenue to restore cuts proposed in Gov. Steve Beshear's budget.

Rep. Harry Moberly said the severity of the proposed cuts has driven him to try to find more revenue than the roughly $200million a year he spoke of early this month.

"I'm looking at proposals that would be anywhere from $240million to $400million each year," he said in an interview.

Now Beshear has found himself in a pickle. He is going to have to pass his casino gambling amendment or face the decision of going along with huge tax increases or telling people that the "deficit" isn't as bad as originally forecasted. Neither of those decisions will be good for him politically. Therefore, he has no choice but to throw everything he has at casino gambling. Look to see a more intensified effort from Beshear to get the casino gaming through. Otherwise, he will be faced with falling into an abyss that may consume his administration. Meanwhile the real issues facing Kentucky go unresolved.

Posted by brians at 4:58 PM in Kentucky Politics

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Counting the Votes on Gaming Amendment

For gambling to be legalized in Kentucky, the state constitution needs to be amended. The process is three fold. The house must pass the amendment with 60% in favor. One it clears the house, it must go to the senate where 60% is also necessary. Once both sides of the legislature pass the amendment, it is put before the general public where a simple majority is necessary to finalize the amendment process.

That means Beshear and associates need 60 votes in the house and 23 votes in the senate. Since the house is first, let's take a look at the numbers.

The governor's search for Republican House votes comes after House Democratic Whip Rob Wilkey polled the 63 members of the majority caucus this week. Wilkey, of Scottsville, found as few as 51 Democratic votes in addition to "a few R's" who say they're likely to vote for it.

"I think we're somewhere in the mid-50s of (representatives) who've indicated they will or can" vote for it, Wilkey said. "I think there are probably, between D's and R's, another 10 who are on the fence."

The Democratic house whip thinks they have 51 Democratic votes for sure with up to 10 Democrats and Republicans on the fence. I imagine they will get some of the Republicans from the Louisville area, but that won't account for 9 votes. They might be able to get some Republicans from northern Kentucky to vote for it as well. I can't imagine more than 5 Republicans voting for expanded gaming. With that said, the Democrats are going to have to twist some arms to get the other 4 votes. It will be interesting to see the incentives that will be offered to get legislators to flip on the issue.

It seems to me that the chances of the house passing this measure are slim, and I am sure a tremendous amount of energy will be expended to make it through. Even if they succeed they are probably going to be stonewalled in the Senate where Republicans have the majority. All the while the important issues of the day go unaddressed. Welcome to Kentucky politics Beshear style.

Posted by brians at 4:08 PM in Kentucky Politics

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