Thursday, 27 March 2008

Casino Bill Dead

Besehar made the pronouncement today that the casino bill was officially dead. Apparently, they were unable to come up with 60 votes in the Democratically controlled house to move the legislation. All this does is make official what many have know for the last month.

Since casinos are dead until at least 2010, I guess it is time for the government efficiency study that Beshear promised if casinos failed. It was going to save us hundreds of millions of dollars a year. I can't wait to see the results of it.

Posted by brians at 6:02 PM in Kentucky Politics
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Beshear's Approval Rating Continues To Fall

Polling from Monday Released by Survey USA shows Beshear with an approval rating of 46% and a disapproval rating of 48%. It marks the first time his negatives were higher than his positives.The results of this poll is a stunning turn around for Beshear who was elected by a wide margin just a few months ago.

Looking at the cross tabs two things stick out to me. The odd one was the fact that Republicans were oversampled. This is one of the first polls I have ever seen where Republicans were oversampled. Usually if anything they are under sampled. Which makes one question the validity of the results. I doubt Beshear's approval rating is as low as this study suggests.

With that said, when looking at Beshear's favorability among Democrats it isn't very good. Among his own party members he has a meager 54% approval rating. That doesn't show much confidence in his administration.

I think the drop in approval ratings tell us a couple of things. First it confirms that they have performed poorly during the session. Their biggest initiative, casino gambling, was unable to move through the Democratically controlled house. In its stead they decided for a tax increase. Clearly the public doesn't appear to be too wild the concept of higher taxation. Add to that an inability to pass a budget and you end up with bad polling numbers.

Secondly, it ends any talk about a Democratic mandate from last years election. People apparently aren't crazy about casinos or the Democratic need to tax and spend. Otherwise his numbers would be much higher. No, this poll illustrates that last year was a personal rebuke of Fletcher and not a failure of his administrations policies.

Posted by brians at 5:57 PM in Kentucky Politics
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Wednesday, 26 March 2008

Kentucky is Still A Racist and Sexist State

Over the weekend, the Lexington Herald brought out articles that showed how poorly represented women and blacks are in the state legislature and how we need to do more to change it. All of which is poppycock.

The "under representation" of each group is easily explained and not as nefarious as the left wants us to believe. First let's start with the black representation in the legislature. There are two reasons they are underpopulated and neither of them are because of racism.

First the black populations in Kentucky tend to be concentrated geographically. In many of the districts where a black is the representative has a majority black population. The concentration means that other districts have a very small minority of black population meaning it is less likely to be represented by blacks.

Let's say the population of district A is 5% black. That means 1 out of every 20 legislatures will be black. If the average politician is in office 10 years then a black should be the representative in that district once in every 200 years. With that type of population, it is not surprising that many districts are still represented by whites.

Secondly, the black population and especially activists are almost monolithically liberal. Can anyone name any black elected official in Kentucky that isn't a liberal? When looking at the state's political leanings it is definitely conservative. Therefore it is not a far stretch to understand why blacks haven't fared well electorally. Obama is a perfect example. He will lose Kentucky in the fall. Not because we are racists but because he is one of the most liberal senators in Washington.

Women on the other hand are a different story. They are more diverse politically than blacks and is reflected in the state legislature. For example, Representatives Marizan and Stein represent the left while Senator Denton represents the right.

In addition to political diversity, women are dispersed more evenly across the state's population. Why are they under represented in the legislature? It must be sexism. Right?

Not so fast my friend. The under representation is a pure numbers game. More men than women run for political office. The gap isn't even close. The phenomenon is similar to engineering profession. It is not that women can't be engineers, it is just for some reason women don't enter the field. When I was in engineering school at U of L we had only a handful of women in our classes. The low numbers had nothing to do with sexism and everything to do with personal choice. Until more women run for office they will be always be under represented.

In Kentucky's history racism and sexism have been influential in politics. Fortunately, those days are past us. The baby boomers and generations after have moved past the old ways of thinking into a post racial and sexist world. Now if only we can get the left to recognize how far we have come and stop trying to play the victim card, we can truly move on to a new day.

Posted by brians at 9:40 AM in Kentucky Politics
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Monday, 24 March 2008

Beshear To Prove Irrelevance

Most of us learn by experience. Take for example a hot stove. You don't really understand why you shouldn't touch it until you actually touch it. The searing pain teaches you a lesson. You learn not to touch a hot stove.

The rest of the people have a more difficult time learning simple lessons. They must touch the hot stove multiple times before they are convinced that it really hurts every time they touch it. Beshear clearly falls into the latter category. He has decided to make a last ditch effort to save his doomed "Casino Bill".

FRANKFORT -- With seven days left in his first legislative session, Gov. Steve Beshear is calling House Democrats together at 4:30 p.m. Monday "to launch a final push" to get his casino gambling amendment passed and sent to the hostile Senate.

Beshear announced the last-ditch effort at a Rotunda press conference surrounded by House leadership and handful of supportive groups -- teachers, chambers of commerce, and racetracks. The governor met privately with track leaders in his office beforehand.

Beshear is again pegging his pitch to money and the state's financial situation, thrown into stark relief with the release today of the Senate's proposed budget.

"It is clear that expanded gaming in the Commonwealth of Kentucky will create a substantial amount of recurring revenue, and it's very clear today Kentucky could certainly use a substantial amount of recurring revenue from some source," Beshear said. "It's time to let the people decide if this is how they want to get it."

The foolishness of the new effort to revive gambling is like touching a stove multiple times. Why? Because Beshear and his fellow Democrats don't have the votes to get it out of the house.

John-Mark Hack of Say No to Casinos. "We feel very good about the House Democrats who have committed to voting against casinos in Kentucky." Hack said by his count "close to 50" House members are committed to voting against the casino amendment.

I am at a loss to understand why the Dems are making a final push. The only thing Beshear will accomplish is to once again demonstrate how irrelevant he has become to the 2008 legislative session.

Posted by brians at 10:28 PM in Kentucky Politics
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Friday, 21 March 2008

If You Are Going To Break A Promise Might As Well Go All Out

Sometimes watching the Beshear administration can border on the surreal. Just a couple of days ago Beshear appeared before a group health advocates in the Capital Rotunda and again pitched his 70 cent per pack cigarette tax.

Gov. Steve Beshear called again yesterday for a 70-cent increase in Kentucky's cigarette tax, urging people to lobby their lawmakers if they agree. Advertisement

"I ask you to start talking as you've never talked before to your legislators," Beshear said to a cheering crowd of health advocates and others gathered in the Capitol Rotunda.

The call to arms is bizarre. He is asking to raise taxes three times more than his fellow Democrats in the house want to raise the tax.

"The House has made a good start," Beshear said of the 25-cent increase lawmakers have proposed in the House budget. "It's just not enough."

Why would you want to pick a fight with members of your own party over this issue? I guess if he is going to break a campaign promise he might as well do it in spectacular fashion. Of course the story gets stranger. Now it appears that Beshear is going to resurrect his casino bill to put pressure on the senate so they will agree to the tax hike.

Beshear says he's not trying to jump start the casino bill to use as leverage in trying to get the republican-led Senate to approve an increase in the cigarette tax.

I am at a loss over this logic. He doesn't even come close to having the votes to pass it out of the house, but this is going to some how magically put pressure on the senate? All it is going to do is highlight how ineffectual Beshear has been this session.

Fortunately for Kentuckians, it doesn't look like David Williams in the senate is going to break his promise not to raise taxes.

The budget is now before the Senate, where its president, David Williams, R-Burkesville, has said repeatedly he sees no sentiment for a tax increase.

The sad part of those whole sordid budget affair is the sheer incompetence. The Democrats bickered and fought like petulant kids over the budget and in the process took an extraordinary amount of time to pass it in the house. The Senate has no time to address the budget meaning it has little chance of being passed during the legislative session.

It appears that we will now be stuck with a special session to get done what the legislatures couldn't get done during the regular session.

Posted by brians at 11:45 AM in Kentucky Politics
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Wednesday, 19 March 2008

The Obama Advantage Is Turning Against Him

When I watch the Obama campaign I am struck by his messianic appeal to a portion of voters within the Democratic party. It is amazing that he was able to develop such a strong brand.

I realize that part of his appeal was due to his message of post partisan hope. It has a certain appeal which lacks substance but sounds good to the "American Idol" generation. It makes people feel good. The second part of his success stems from the fact that he is a relatively new face into national politics and doesn't carry the baggage of years in political office.

He has a measly four years in the U.S. Senate and didn't spend much more time than that in the Illinois Legislature. The lack of a political resume has allowed him to define himself however he sees fit. And he has taken advantage of that to create a strong brand for his name while avoiding issues. The brand was so strong that it caused the media to swoon and allow him to avoid criticism.

Without a political history to examine, Obama's opponents went to the only thing available. How was it possible for him to rise so quickly onto the national scene? It is in this answer that we may see his undoing as a national candidate.

For him to rise so quickly in Chicago politics he needed to have friends with money and access to the community. He found those resources in Tony Rezko and Pastor Wright.

The problem is that Tony Rezko is on trial for fraud and corruption charges. His trial will probably expose more corruption within Chicago politics. It will expose the kickbacks and patronage of a city with a long heritage of these types of shenanigans. The shady relationship between Obama and Rezko will only be explored in greater detail as the trial goes forward.

Pastor Wright provides another problem for Obama. Obama's involvement with the pastor helped him to gain street credibility among the black areas of Chicago. It provided a spring board for his rise to state senator and the US Senate. Now that Pastor Wright's wild rantings have become public, they are becoming another weight around Obama's neck.

The ironic part of his new found problems is I don't believe they would have been major stories 10+ years from now. If Obama had a real political record as a U.S. Senator or as an Illinois Governor, I doubt his early relationships would be anything other than a minor issue in the race. Instead the focus would have been on his record.

We come to the crux of the Obama phenomenon and problem. He has been able to create a brand because he doesn't have years in political office, but at the same time has created a problem for himself. It exposes him to the questions about how he got there in the first place. Looking into his meteoric rise in Chicago politics, one is bound to finding shady dealings and questionable alliances. It are these issues which might prove to be his unraveling.

Posted by brians at 9:27 AM in National Politics
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Tuesday, 18 March 2008

Don't Try To Send Beshear an Email

Don't try to send Beshear an email message because he won't get it. It seems that Beshear has decided to refuse being assigned a state email address.

Besides the obvious lameness in being too good for an email account, one has to wonder what he has to hide? If you are above board in all of your dealings, why would you have to worry about having your email being available for open records request?

Maybe Beshear is doing everything at the highest level of ethics. Maybe I am reading too much into this decision. But if you are clean in your actions, why would you hide your communications behind a shroud of secrecy. If I had championed myself as a leader in ethical reform, I know I wouldn't be trying to find ways to hide what I do. It makes one wonder.

Posted by brians at 9:39 AM in Kentucky Politics
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How Bad Was The Loss In the 30th?

We already know that the Democrats poured a lot of time and resources into the special election for Mongiardo's old seat. Only know do we get the full picture of the carnage.

FRANKFORT -- The Kentucky Democratic Party and its unsuccessful candidate in February's special state Senate race spent roughly $550,000 -- the most money expended on a losing legislative campaign in Kentucky history.

That amount doubled the $275,000 total that Republican Brandon Smith and the state GOP dished out in the winning campaign for the 30th Senate District.

Not only did Beshear and Mongiardo spend a lot of political capital on the race, the Democrats spent a lot of money on the seat. Outspending the Republicans 2 to 1. The final tally really accentuates the loss and makes it all that more humiliating for the Dems. It also makes you wonder why they took such a risk over a seat that wasn't that important in the grand scheme of things.

The Republicans on the other hand performed brilliantly in this contest. They put forth a better candidate and devoted enough resources to stay competitive in the race. Of course they had nothing to lose in the race which makes the small risk well worth the reward. By doing so, they wiped out any momentum the Democrats had and returned it back to the Republicans.

Posted by brians at 9:25 AM in Kentucky Politics
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Tuesday, 11 March 2008

Budget Crisis?

One of my first criticisms of the Beshear administration was his immediate claim of a "budget crisis". I still don't believe we are in a budget crisis. I think the crisis was a manufactured ploy to gain support for the casino amendment.

Well, the evidence keeps pouring in and the budget crisis is still no where in sight. In fact, both January and February revenue numbers have shown an increase from the previous year. It's funny how reality can get in the way of a good political tall tale.

Posted by brians at 1:01 AM in Kentucky Politics
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Beshear is No Henry Clay

Joesepth Gerth yesterday in the Courier Journal tried to make the comparison between Henry Clay and Steve Beshear. The analogy falls short on many levels and only displays political bias in reporting.

Henry Clay was a storied politician and tremendous leader. He was known as the "Great Compromiser". A person who could bring people together to get stuff done. None of which is on display by our current inept Governor.

The best analysis I have heard on Beshear is a joke I heard from my brother-in-law. "Beshear sat down at his desk on day 1 and found Fletcher's playbook in a drawer of the desk. He then decided to use it."

Beshear is making all of the same bone headed mistakes Fletcher made in his first years of office. At least Fletcher had an excuse. He was surrounded by a lot of inexperienced government operatives. Beshear doesn't have that excuse. He has filled his administration with cronies. That is what makes his term such an amazing embarrassment.

Posted by brians at 12:32 AM in Kentucky Politics
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Money Changes Everything

With all of the money being pumped into the political system by proponents of expanded gambling, one has to wonder if all of the money is influencing votes.

Let's take a look at an example. Tom Burch, a Democrat from Louisville, has decided he would vote for Beshear's casino proposal this year. Now let's step into the way back machine to take us back to the year 2002. At that time Burch was militantly against casinos. In fact he proposed legislation, HB256, that would encourage the purchase of a submarine to patrol the state's rivers and destroy casino riverboats.

I wonder what happened in the last 6 years that brought such a revelation to Rep Burch? Hmmm, I don't know. But for some reason I am reminded of the Cindy Lauper song, Money Changes Everything.

Money changes everything
Money changes everything
We think we know what we're doin'
We don't pull the strings
It's all in the past now
Money changes everything
Posted by brians at 12:14 AM in Kentucky Politics
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Monday, 10 March 2008

KEA Holds Kentucky Education Hostage

Senate Bill 1 would replace the current CATS testing system with national testing standards. The bill passed the senate on Friday along party lines.

Voting along party lines, the Senate yesterday approved a controversial bill to overhaul the state's student testing program.

The vote on Senate Bill 1 was 22-15, with the chamber's lone independent, Bob Leeper of Paducah, siding with the majority Republicans as he normally does.

The KEA is opposing the bill, so it is probably dead in the house. Regardless, we know Beshear, who bows to the KEA, has promised to veto the bill if it reaches his desk.

After Beshear issued his veto threat, Rep. Harry Moberly, the chairman of the House budget committee, said SB 1 won't get through the House.

"There's nothing wrong with looking at problems with the CATS test," said Moberly, D-Richmond. "But Senate Bill 1 throws out the whole system. It takes away open-response questions which test critical-thinking skills, and it's just a bad bill all the way around."

Beshear said SB 1 "eliminates test questions requiring students to explain what they know and apply that knowledge to solving problems. Instead, it substitutes multiple-choice questions that promote memorizing and guessing."

Let me get this straight. CATS is better because it judges analytical skills. It is more than just memorizing stuff for tests. It is a better judge of an individual students skills. Why the hell do we have this test? We already have something that tests all of these factors. It is called GRADES. The point of a grade is to test a student in various activities throughout the school year. In doing so, the curriculum should test all of the students skills. Why do we need a test to tell us what grades can effectively do?

What we need is some way to compare Kentucky's progress to other states. That is what SB 1 would do. It would replace our asinine system with one more suited for national comparison.

"But all students aren't always good at multiple choice tests?" So what. The same problem applies to other states. While standardized tests aren't perfect, they provide a good indication of a students skills. The goal isn't to grade the individual student, but to see how the aggregate compares to other states. That is the only way to know if you are moving forward.

In any endeavor it is important to have metrics to measure success. That way one can tell if they are moving in the right direction. All we know from CATS is how we are doing from the previous year. While we might be doing better from year to year, we could continue to be falling behind the rest of the nation. We can't know unless we measure as everyone else does. Such a system would provide much needed accountability!

At the end of the day, it is the accountability aspect of this bill which has lead the KEA and Beshear oppose it. They don't want to be held accountable. They just want to be able to throw more money at the problem. It is a shame this bill isn't going to be made into law. But as long as the KEA holds the strings to Democrats, we are going to continue to have inadequate education.

Posted by brians at 11:59 PM in Kentucky Politics
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Saturday, 8 March 2008

Fall Of Beshear

It didn't take long for Beshear to break his campaign promise not to raise taxes. Last Thursday Beshear came out in support of a 70 cent tax per pack on cigarettes. An amount that was well above what the state house wanted.

Acknowledging that his casino gambling proposal faces long odds, Gov. Steve Beshear switched course Thursday and proposed a cigarette tax increase that would leverage $800 million over two years to bolster his bare-bones budget.

The next day Beshear met with the house Democratic caucus to pimp his new proposal. Almost immediately afterward, the house Democrats decided to ignore him and continue on their own path.

House Democrats yesterday rejected Gov. Steve Beshear's proposed cigarette-tax increase and directed sharp criticism at him.

After hearing Beshear, a Democrat, make his pitch in a closed meeting, the House majority caucus decided to stick with its own revenue plan as it prepares to vote on a budget bill next week. The plan includes a 25-cent increase in the state's 30-cent-per-pack cigarette tax.

Thursday night, in a surprise move, Beshear proposed raising the tax by 70 cents and using some of the revenue to secure a bond issue to help pay continuing state expenses.

He was critical of the revenue proposal fashioned by House Democratic leaders, and yesterday they returned fire.

"Our budget is responsible, and the governor's is irresponsible," said Rep. Harry Moberly, the chairman of the Appropriations and Revenue Committee, after the hour-long meeting in which Beshear argued for his plan.

Moberly, D-Richmond, said he was furious with Beshear's unexpected cigarette-tax proposal and his charge that the House had used "funny money" in devising its revenue plan.

Moberly described Thursday evening's meeting, at which House leaders were to give Beshear their revenue plan, as an "ambush" by the governor.

Wow! It is amazing how quick Beshear has fallen from conquering hero to an afterthought. Members of his own party are ignoring him and have pretty much told him to shove it. Three months is all it took. Quite an accomplishment.

I remember back to the Democratic debates when pressed on how he would get his casino bill through the house, Beshear responded that he would force legislation through. Comrade Richards said at the time his attitude would never fly in Frankfort. Moberly brought those prophetic words to life yesterday.

Moberly said of Beshear, "We want him to understand that we're an equal branch of government, and we're not going to be treated the way we were treated yesterday.

Beshear has lost any control he had on legislation for this session. His influence is about zero right now. It will be interesting to see if he learns anything from this debacle and regains any of his stature in the coming years. Otherwise he has quite effectively turned himself into a lame duck Governor.

Posted by brians at 9:56 PM in Kentucky Politics
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Thursday, 6 March 2008

Unions Rally to Lunsford?

Last week Kentucky's largest labor coalition endorsed Bruce Lunsford for the U.S. Senate.

In a stunning reversal from last year's gubernatorial race, Kentucky's largest labor coalition announced yesterday that it was endorsing Louisville businessman Bruce Lunsford in the U.S. Senate race.

Just 12 months ago, the group Change to Win announced that it would not endorse anyone in the Democratic primary for governor but would work to tell its members about "the sins of Bruce Lunsford."

In announcing its endorsement yesterday, Change to Win noted that it didn't support Lunsford last year. Its press release focused more on the need to beat Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell than it did on why union voters should back Lunsford.

A year earlier, these guys were talking as if Lunsford was evil incarnate. In fact every time Lunsford has run the labor unions have repudiated his candidacies. Why would they endorse him now?

The have multiple candidates to choose from including multi-millionaire Fischer. In the process, the union's just weakened these other candidates immensely. Are they really worse than Lunsford? I am sure the unions are just trying to get behind the "chosen" candidate early to help him though the primary, but it must leave a bitter taste for true believers. The endorsement is not exactly a principled stand.

To me it seems like a bonehead move. Why endorse in the primary? They could have just stayed mum on the issue like they did in last years Gubernatorial primary. The could easily endorse any of the Democrats and point their ire at McConnell.

Now if one of the other candidates win, they are going to look politically weak. If he wins, then they will have enabled someone they strongly dislike. Regardless of the outcome they have exposed themselves for what they truly are, Democratic mercenaries. They have shown their true colors. They no longer represent the working class. They represent the wishes of Beshear and the Democratic party.

Posted by brians at 1:06 PM in Kentucky Politics
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Casino Bill Is Dead

Yesterday the Herald Leader ran a story on the vote count for the casino measure in the house. It looks bleak for Beshear and Democrats.

Even as House Speaker Jody Richards and Gov. Steve Beshear expressed optimism about rounding up the necessary 60 votes to pass a casino bill, a Herald-Leader survey of the 99 House members showed it had a long way to go.

Just 37 House members said that they plan to support the current version of the constitutional amendment that would allow casinos. Twelve others told the Herald-Leader they were undecided and five wouldn't reveal their positions.

Perhaps more concerning for advocates of the proposal, such as Richards and Beshear, is that 44 of the 99 current House members said they're likely to vote against the draft of the constitutional amendment that's pending before the lower chamber.

37 are for the amendment. 44 are against it. And 18 don't know how they are going to vote. The house needs 60 for the measure to pass. The numbers just aren't there. Sen Williams was right, the casino amendment won't make it through the house.

While I am sure the papers are going to continue to cover this issue and Beshear and company are going to continue twisting arms, they won't get it done. The issue is dead for this session. Meanwhile, Beshear continues to be AWOL on the pressing issues facing our state.

Posted by brians at 8:45 AM in Kentucky Politics
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Wednesday, 5 March 2008

Democratic Presidential Primary

On Tuesday, Hillary won big. She won both Texas and Ohio putting a momentary stop to Obama's momentum and resuscitating her nearly dead campaign. While Hillary still trails Obama by a significant number of delegates, she isn't that far back in the raw vote totals. Thus the battle continues onward to Pennsylvania.

As the fight continues three things will happen. First, both sides will continue to exhaust resources that could be better used in the general election. Secondly, the constant pressure will create fatigue and bring more opportunities for "gaffes" that could define the race. Lastly and most importantly, the longer the race goes on the dirtier it will get. The mud slinging and partisanship between the two sides will increase dramatically. Especially with team Clinton on one side of the divide.

The danger to Obama is much greater than for Hillary. For the most part, Obama has been able to define himself as a new "post-partisan" candidate. The more he has to fight the greater the scrutiny will become. Providing a very real chance to peel back the thin veneer of his campaign. Exposing him as just another liberal.

These dangers are very real and why Obama's team keep trying saying the "race is over". Unfortunately for them, Obama couldn't knock Hillary out of the race. Instead they left the door open and Hillary blew through it. Hillary is now in a position to continue to hound Obama into a mistake for the next six week. She is on the offensive while Obama is on the defensive. I don't see why Hillary can't steal this election.

All the while, the Republican race is settled. While Democrats get to continue a weary battle, McCain gets to start stock piling resources for the general. He can rest while Hillary and Obama continue to battle. He also has the luxury of being able to throw bombs at both Democratic candidates. Both Dems will have to not only fend off each other, but fend off McCain. Making it an even more pressure packed environment.

So pass the pop corn, this is going to be a fun couple of months.

Posted by brians at 11:34 PM in National Politics
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Tuesday, 4 March 2008

Hoisted By Their Own Petard

Campaign donations are a form of speech protected by the first amendment of the Constitution. For years, McConnell has been the champion of protecting this basic right. Whenever people on the left want to limit campaign contributions, McConnell has fought vociferously against it.

Thus I find it really amusing when stupid campaign finance laws come back to bite the left.

With two wealthy candidates running in the Democratic primary, it's possible that a complex federal campaign-finance provision called the Millionaires' Amendment could come into play for the first time in Kentucky.

The Millionaires' Amendment is governed by a series of mathematical formulas that can give voters -- and reporters -- flashbacks to high school calculus. It can be triggered if a candidate dumps a certain amount of personal funds into the campaign.

Those thresholds in U.S. Senate races vary from state to state according to population. And if a candidate's own money surpasses those thresholds, then that person's election opponents might be eligible to accept more from individuals than the $2,300 per-person, per-election limit.

What are the possible thresholds and what do they mean for McConnell?

In a Kentucky U.S. Senate race, the first key threshold is $559,000 in personal money pumped into a campaign. That would allow an opponent to collect up to $6,900 from donors -- three times the regular $2,300 limit.

If a Kentucky Senate candidate crossed $1,118,000 in self-financing, an opponent could be eligible to accept up to $12,600 from each donor.

And the $2,795,000 threshold allows an opponent to receive unlimited financial help from national party organizations.

These measures won't kick in immediately because the formula takes into account how much the campaigns have relevant to each other. But if either millionaire can't raise the necessary funds, they will be limited in how much they can put into the race. If they go over the threshold in the millionaire's law, it will trigger a devastating effect. It will allow McConnell to be able to raise millions more from previous donors. Allowing him to either keep pace or outstrip his opponents.

Therefore McConnell will have more than enough resources to take on whichever millionaire wins the primary. Giving him yet another advantage over his opponent in the fall.

Posted by brians at 1:08 PM in Kentucky Politics
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Saturday, 1 March 2008

Time To Grab Your Wallets

It is time to grab your wallets because the Democrats are on the prowl looking for "new revenue sources".

Democratic House leaders hope to beef up Gov. Steve Beshear's anemic two-year budget with as much as $800 million in new revenue from tax hikes and other "creative" measures when they begin marking up the document Sunday.

On top of the money grab, they are playing stupid political games to make sure the Senate can't make many changes.

Senate leaders say they might not have enough time to fully vet the voluminous document if the House doesn't send its proposal to the Republican-led Senate until March 15.

Senate Majority Leader Dan Kelly, R-Springfield, said the Senate usually receives the House budget in the first week of March.

"And we've always complained about that. That gives them some six weeks to work on the budget and us about two weeks," Kelly said.

The Senate this year must be finished with its budget plan by March 21, Kelly said.

"If we don't get the bill from the House by March 15, we will have less than a week with it," he said. "It raises the question if there is some strategy by the House not to give us enough time."

It is either a political game or they are completely incompetent. While I wouldn't rule out incompetent after watching them handle the casino amendment, I think they have been in Frankfort long enough to get a budget through on time. Instead of doing the right thing, they are trying to run out the clock to keep the senate from undoing the damage they are likely to do.

Posted by brians at 7:25 PM in Kentucky Politics
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SS Titanic Lists Out of Port

After stacking the deck in the committee, the speaker of the house Comrade Richards was able to get his version of the casino bill out of committee. Now it heads to the floor where the votes don't exist to pass the amendment. They need 60 votes for it to pass and according to Wilkey, the house whip, there are just over 50 votes for the amendment.

Rep. Rob Wilkey, D-Scottsville, the House majority whip, estimated just over 50 representatives would vote to allow nine casinos with no licenses set aside for racetracks.

"I'm not sure that you can muster the next 10," he said. "I think that its fate is in serious jeopardy."

House Speaker Jody Richards, D-Bowling Green, said the amendment would not be called for a vote on the House floor until he believes it has at least 62 votes.

Gov. Steve Beshear said he'll be working through the weekend and into next week to find support in the House.

I seriously doubt they will get the 10 votes they need for it to be brought to a vote. First, I don't think there is a good deal of enthusiasm in rural Kentucky for casino gambling. As such state legislators don't want to stick their neck on the line for it. The split in the Democratic leadership is providing all the cover necessary. The strong arm tactics and lack of explicit protection for the horse industry provides ample cover for those who don't really want to vote for it.

I imagine they will be able to do enough arm twisting to get in the high 50's, but I don't think they will be able to bully enough Republicans into supporting it. So while the SS Titanic has finally made it out of port, it is listing wildly and on the verge of sinking before it even gets to the ice berg in the Senate.

Posted by brians at 6:44 PM in Kentucky Politics
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