Tuesday, 8 April 2008
Northup Likely to Face Yarmuth In Fall
Polling came out on the 3rd congressional Republican primary. They show Northup comfortably ahead. She is leading her nearest rival Theineman by 68 points (79-11). A lead that is insurmountable with less than two months to go. Her win will set up an interesting rematch this fall.
Two things will be different this time around. As it stands right now, it looks like McCain will win Kentucky easily in the fall. (I wouldn't be surprised if McConnell doesn't win as easily). The success of McCain's campaign should soften the anti-Republican sentiment that was so overwhelming two years ago. Even with the strong tide back then, Yarmuth was only able to squeak out slim margin of victory. The playing field will be more level this time swinging the advantage back to her.
Secondly, Yarmuth now has a voting record. One that is very liberal. Northup should be able to draw a sharp contrast with her more moderate record in Congress and his extreme Liberalism.
Personally, I think the race is very winnable for Northup. A contest that will likely prove a barometer for the rest of the country. If Northup can regain her seat it should bode well for Republicans nationally. If not, then the Republicans are probably going to suffer another bad year.
