Wednesday, 16 April 2008
Democratic Primary for US Senate
« Budget Take 1 | Main | Budget Take 2 »I think it is safe to assume at this point that Lunsford will be facing Sen McConnel this weekend. The only obstacle in Lunsford's way is a blunder of colossal proportions. Take a look at the latest numbers and then I'll explain why.
| Lunsford | 47% |
| Fischer | 9% |
| Williams | 8% |
| Cassaro | 5% |
| Rice | 5% |
| Wylie | 3% |
| Stepp | 1% |
Lunsford's only real rival, Fischer, is in deep trouble. I am not talking about the fact that he is statistically even with non-candidate David Williams. He has the money and resources to move his numbers significantly. Fischer's main problem is the fact that Lunsford is doing well.
I suspect that David Williams is going to finish around 10% of the vote. I imagine that the other 4 candidates are going to garner between 1-3% of the vote each. That means that 15% of the vote total will go to 5 candidates without a shot. Leaving only 85% of the vote for Fischer and Lunsford to divide. The problem for Fischer is Lunsford already enjoys a majority of the remaining votes. Therefore Fischer has to accomplish two things in the next 6 weeks. He needs to get his numbers up over 40% AND drive down Lunsford's numbers to somewhere around 40%.
There is where the paradox lies. For him to drive down Lunsford's numbers, he is going to have to go negative. The problem is it is hard to build your own numbers while going negative on an opponent. He has very little time to accomplish both tasks. All Lunsford has to do is continue to run positive adds and ignore the rest of the field. It should be easy for him to run the clock out.
