Friday, 30 May 2008

Full Frontal By MSM On Republicans in State Senate

The story about the state senate offices undergoing renovations is hilarious. The legislators have for the last few years been trying to upgrade the offices for elected officials. They are basically claiming more space in the capital annex and renovating it for their needs. It is space that is sorely needed.

I am one of the biggest small government people you will meet, and I don't see any problems with this expansion. Have anybody been in some of the legislator's offices before this upgrade? They were horribly small. Some legislators even shared desks. Even I see that is an inadequate amount of space for legislators. Besides I want them to be able to get their work done within the time frame of the regular session so we don't have to have silly special sessions. I see any step to help legislators get it done is a good thing. It's not like they are building palatial offices for each legislature. They are just giving them all adequate office space so they can be more efficient.

The decision to finish the process is much less offensive than many hundreds of other items in the budget. But since it is the senate and they are controlled by Republicans, the condemnations were inevitable. The attacks are so predictable and childish that they border on comical.

But critics said Wednesday that they were stunned to learn that senators are making themselves more comfortable as the rest of Kentucky sacrifices.

"We wish the 52,000 children eligible for health insurance coverage through KCHIP, but not enrolled because of inadequate funds, would receive the same level of attention as the 5,250 square feet of Senate office space now being renovated," said Terry Brooks, executive director of Kentucky Youth Advocates. "The emphasis on these self-serving projects over the needs of real people is sadly becoming the norm."

And of course they had to quote the Senate's most liberal member.

"This just adds insult to injury," (Sen Ernest) Scorsone said Wednesday. "With all of the cuts to human services, to education, to proceed with the expansion and renovation of our Senate offices is sinful. How can we expect the public to hold any confidence in our actions if these are the kinds of priorities we have?"

Oh the horror. Think of all of the poor people suffering without government to be there with handouts. Give me a freakin break. How did people ever get by without government before? The same way they will get by this year without it. Why is it such a sin for the state to cut back some of its services for a year or two? The state doesn't always have to get bigger. We can say no more. At least for a few years.

Posted by brians at 5:43 PM in Kentucky Politics

Wednesday, 28 May 2008

Why Are Kids Fat Today?

It appears that the number of fat kids in America have begun to level off after 25 years of increases. While I am glad that the number is no longer rising, the results are still appalling. Many want to blame either parents for poor nutrition or the advent of video games which kids tend to sit in front of for hours at a time.

I know when I was younger I ate lots of junk food. I even watched television and played video games. But I never became obese. Why? What was different back then? One simple thing. Freedom.

Us kids would run all over the neighborhood playing with each other. We would ride our bikes by ourselves to each others house to play. Heck, we would ride our bikes all over community. We would go swimming, play in parks, and have a good ole time exercising every step of the way. We never feared being kidnapped or molested.

Unfortunately, paranoia has gripped parents of today. It has slowly stripped our kid's freedom away. Today the idea of kids running around without restraint is unthinkable. The only time kids can go out to play is if they are supervised by adults. With the busy lives most adults enjoy, they don't have time to watch over their kids while they play.

Thus kids remain indoors. The boredom leads them to watch television or play video games. The inactivity along with junk food leads to obesity we see everywhere today. In addition, the longer children lead sedentary lifestyles the harder it is to generate the inertia to get them outside to play. The results from this behavior are inevitable as the sun coming up in the morning.

Somewhere along the way, this country lost its innocence and our children have paid a hefty price through lost freedom and greater obesity. It's a shame that kids just can't be kids anymore.

Posted by brians at 11:08 PM in Political Issues

Is McConnell Trailing Lunsford?

I have been out of it the holiday weekend and am just now getting back into the swing of things when I came across the latest Rasmussen poll on Kentucky's U.S. Senate race. The poll had some interesting results.

After seeing the Herald Leader's poll recently that showed McConnell 12 points ahead of Lunsford, I was a bit stunned to see a 17 point shift that showed Lunsford was leading McConnell 49 to 44. Of course what makes this poll even more bizarre was the fact that Lunsford's approval rating or 47 percent was not only below 50 percent but lower than his vote total.

That must mean that McConnells approval ratings must be abysmal. Right? Interestingly enough it is not. McConnell has a 52 percent approval rating. Making the results of this poll seem a bit backwards. The only reason I can think for the contradictory results within the poll is that Lunsford enjoyed a good deal of press over the final days of the primary and this is nothing more than a convention like bounce.

While I find Rasmussen to be a highly respected polling company, I am going to have to wait for more polling samples before I belive that McConnell is actually trailing Lunsford. Especially when his approval rating is above 50 percent. In the mean time I'll consider this poll a weird outlier that occasionally occurs.

Posted by brians at 10:16 PM in Kentucky Politics

Friday, 23 May 2008

Oil Bubble Will Burst

For a while now, I have thought the price of a barrel of oil has been artificially high. Even now, we see growing evidence of this phenomenon.

Surely it(Oil) is driven by profound and lasting changes in global supply and demand: China's insatiable appetite for food and energy, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, the peaking of global oil reserves, droughts caused by global warming and so on. All these fundamental points are perfectly valid, but they tell us nothing about whether the oil price will soon jump to $200, stay at $130 or fall back to $60 next month.

To see that these “fundamentals” are all irrelevant, we have merely to ask which of them has changed in the past nine months. The answer is none. The oil markets didn't suddenly discover China's oil demand nine months ago so this cannot explain the doubling of prices since last August. In fact, China's “insatiable” demand growth has decelerated. In 2004 it was consuming an extra 0.9 million barrels a day; in 2007 it was consuming just an extra 0.3 mbd. In the same period global demand growth has slowed from 3.6 mbd to 0.7 mbd. As a result, the increase in global demand growth is now well below last year's increase of 0.8 mbd in non-Opec production, according to Mike Rothman, of ISI, a leading New York consulting group.

We are even seeing a huge build up of supply.

the Gulf, according to Mr Rothman, is crammed with supertankers chartered by oil-producing governments to hold the inventories of oil they are pumping but cannot sell.

Add to it the fact that higher prices are almost assuredly curbing consumer consumption, and a glut in supply is invevitable.

Isn't this just a plot by Big Oil to drive up prices? In reality the build up of oil is not some nefarious plot, but the result of having no one wanting to pay today's price for oil. Especially when the future price is almost assuredly going to be lower.

If supply is outstripping demand how come prices are still going upwards? This isn't the first time we have seen irrationalities in the market place. Just go back to the late 90's where Dot Com companies were trading well above their true value. There was nothing rational about it. But what happens when prices become detached from market principles? The Dot Com bubble burst and stocks fell dramatically.

The same thing is bound to happen to oil prices. The irrationality within a market can only last so long before the market forces a correction. The only question remaining is when it will occur. Hopefully it will occur before the politicians in DC start taking actions to "correct the problem" of high gas prices. A move that will only cause more problems than it will solve.

So while gas prices are painful right now, don't bitch to politicians about it or blame some conspiracy by big oil. One would be better served to show some patience and frugality. Sooner or later the market will correct and prices will plummet to more reasonable levels. That is just the way markets work. Complaining about it doesn't change they dynamics.

Hat tip to my friend Rob for sending me the article.

Posted by brians at 9:08 AM in Political Issues

Thursday, 22 May 2008

Lunsford Fails Economics 101

Let's say you are the owner of a company that makes widgets. You have determined that people are willing to pay $10 for each of these widgets. After materials, labor, marketing, transportation, and other costs of doing business you are able to make $1 in profit off each widget. Now let's say you are able to sell 1 million of these widgets in a year. That means you made 1 million dollars in profit from all of your hard work.

The government looks at your business and says your price is ridiculously high and your profits are "obscene". They decide to soak you for gouging people. They are going to tax you 50 cents on each dollar of profit. I don't know about you, but I would be pissed off that the government is penalizing me for making money off of my hard work. Instead of taking the financial hit you decided to build the cost of taxation into the costs. So now you sell the widgets for $10.50. The following year you are able to sell another million widgets. Who are the winners and losers in this transaction? The clear winner is government. They make $500,000. You come out even. Your customers who end up paying the extra 50 cents and are now $500,000 in the whole.

The moral of the story is that whenever you hear government wants to soak any company for obscene profits what they are really saying is they want to soak the consumer. Which is exactly what will happen if government goes after big oil. The losers will be the consumers of oil. That would be all of us.

Now let's say the government is going to give your customers a rebate of 40 cents for each widget they buy. Wow how magnanimous the government is! Or are they? In this new scenario. Consumers save 40 cents on each widget they buy but the cost has increased to $10.50 when it was previously $10.00. So your customer is still paying 10 cents more for each widget and the government is profiting off the transaction. Of course this is the same argument that Hillary Clinton is making when she claims she wants a gas holiday and wants to pay for it by taxing "Big Oil's obscene profits". What she really wants is to soak the taxpayers while pretending to help ease their pain. It is a complete shell game.

Guess who else is on board with this stupidity? If you said Bruce Lunsford then you guessed right. Yesterday in attacking McConnel he said he favored placing a wind-fall profits tax on oil companies and approving a federal gas tax holiday to pay for it. It always amazes me that Democrats like Lunsford can't understand simple economic principles. No wonder Lunsford's company went bankrupt.

Posted by brians at 10:21 PM in Kentucky Politics

Painting Kentucky Racists

The Courier Journal today had an article on how Kentucky's racism accounted for Obama's beatdown in Kentucky. They used Oregon as a counterpoint.

In Kentucky and Oregon, nearly nine of every 10 voters Tuesday were white.

But the results in the two states' presidential primaries were very different.

Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois got 30 percent of the vote in Kentucky; in Oregon he received nearly 60 percent....

It's difficult to escape the conclusion that Kentucky's racial attitudes played a significant role in the outcome of Tuesday's primary.

"This was so overwhelming of a win, and partly it was an endorsement of (Sen. Hillary) Clinton. But partially it was a rejection of Obama," said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics. "And I think race is part of it."

It is has to be racism which is the difference. Or it could be that Oregon is far to the left of the center politically while Kentucky is right of center politically. I think this plays out by the fact that Clinton beat Obama in a group he usually carried.

In Kentucky, however, she also won a majority of voters with college degrees, a demographic group that has generally appealed to Obama in other states.

Stir into the equation the fact that Hillary has consistently done well with Kentucky's largest demographic, blue collar workers without an education, and you have the makings of a blow out of large proportions. Which is exactly what we saw unfold on Tuesday.

Many of Hillary's core voters are "Reagan Democrats" so don't be surprised if many of them move to McCain this fall. They more naturally align themselves politically with McCain than the elitist liberal, Obama. I expect the "racism" meme will be the excuse the liberal media use when Obama gets trounced in November. And not the fact that he is just another McGovern/Carter replay.

Posted by brians at 9:51 AM in Kentucky Politics

People Upset Over Lack Of Cross Party Voting

The biggest complaint on election day was the ban on cross party voting.

Perhaps the most complaints in Jefferson County came from people who had registered for one party but wanted to vote in the other party's primary, said Nore Ghibaudy, a spokesman for the county Board of Elections.

Why are people upset? If you want to vote in a primary join the party for which you want to vote. It is that simple. I never understood the concept of open primaries. A primary is for a party to select their nominee and not for the world to select the nominee. If you want to select party A's nominee and you are part of party B or an "Independent" then join party A if you want to vote for who is nominated from party A. Its not that complicated. I am just glad that Kentucky does it right.

Posted by brians at 9:29 AM in Political Issues

Bias In The Media - The On Going Saga

Recently we have had a number of stories about Democrats who have said repulsive things that were never apologized for and were never dwelt upon by the main stream media. Just a couple of days ago there was a story about the candidates for the Republican 4th District Congressional Race. The story itself was unremarkable, but It contained this tid bit on Rep Davis.

He also took some heat last month after calling Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama a "boy" while discussing national security at a GOP dinner. Davis said he quickly wrote Obama an apology.

It has been over a MONTH ago and he is still being associated with this story. Heck he even apologized for the remarks. (Something the Democrats haven't done) Yet it is still magically part of the story about him. I am waiting for the media to have a story about Beshear that begins with:

Beshear, who recently was heard calling for Cheney to shoot Bush and who still hasn't apologized for the remarks, said today that ....

For some reason, I don't think that is going to happen. Oh well, just another case of media injecting biased editorial into a story.

Posted by brians at 9:13 AM in Political Issues

Tuesday, 20 May 2008

Primary Election Results

As I predicted earlier today, there was very little drama in today's primary election. Hillary destroyed Obama 66-30 gaining 250,000 popular votes. Another stunning loss for the anointed nominee of the Democratic party. This type of beating will ensure McCain wins Kentucky in the fall. The only question that remains is how big of a drag will Obama's presence on the ticket be for other Kentucky Democratic candidates in the fall.

Lunsford exceeded my expectations winning 52-34. I didn't think he would get over 50% of the vote. It turns out his name recognition gave him a huge boost in the rural parts of the state. I put the over under for Lunsford at 42 for the general election.

Northup also exceeded expectations by winning the primary with 78% of the vote. She sets up an exciting rematch with Yarmuth! that promises to be another barn burner.

Posted by brians at 10:42 PM in Kentucky Politics

Low Turnout In The Highlands?

If this report is true, then Obama isn't going to win Jefferson County. Obama is going to need strong turnouts in the west end and highlands if he hopes to offset the votes Hillary will get from the south and east ends. I guess his voters think they have the race wrapped up and decided not to vote.

This news probably doesn't bode well for Fischer's doomed campaign either.

Posted by brians at 4:42 PM in Kentucky Politics

Primary Predictions

Today's primary has come and it promises to be boring. The only big race that might be close is the Democratic battle in the 2nd Congressional District. Otherwise the statewide races appear to be beatings. The latest Survey USA poll has Hillary leading Obama 62-31. It looks like she will beat Obama by 30+ points here in Kentucky. The only question remaining is will Obama win any counties? Something he failed to do in West Virginia. A huge win in Kentucky will give Hillary another massive boost. If she manages to keep it close in Oregon, she might be able to pass Obama in the total popular vote. Regardless, she is going to continue the trend of beating him in the popular vote since Super Tuesday. The Peurto Rico primary is starting to look really interesting.

The U.S. Senate race looks to prove just as boring as the presidential primary. Lunsford holds a 21 point lead on Fischer, 47-26. As poor of a campaign as Fischer ran, he was unable to capitalize on Democrat unease over Lunsford. That lack of comfort will cause Lunsford to under perform and Fischer to over perform. But 21 points is too much to overcome. I think Lunsford will win somewhere around 43-31

Bonus prediction: Northup will get over 70% of the vote.

Posted by brians at 9:37 AM in Kentucky Politics

Saturday, 17 May 2008

NRA's Celebration Of American Values Leadership Forum Part 2

One of the few speeches I took notes during was Sen McConnell's speech. I have always found McConnell to not only be an outspoken defender of the second amendment but also worth a couple of good quotes. I wasn't disappointed.

He started by saying that "More guns equals less crime". A true statement. Everywhere that has a high level of personal gun ownership has the lowest crime rates in the country. I doubt that is a coincidence. Because of the propensity for NRA members to carry guns McConnell quipped "I will sleep well tonight knowing that the NRA is in town"

He then turned to the left's hatred for the second amendment and attempts to subvert it. "For some reason they have a greater fear of their fellow citizens than their government." That the left seems to think that "people need the government more than the government needs the people". That what we heard from Obama in San Francisco about bitter people clinging to their guns is what they actually believe. "When 9 out of 10 NRA voters vote it is not because they are bitter, but because freedom is alive"

McConnell believes the left has begun to understand that "gun control isn't as popular in Springfield KY as it is in San Francisco" so they try to hide from the issue. Obama is latest in a line of national Democratic figures who have tried to hide from it. But one thing is sure "Obama won't appoint judges who would by keynote speakers at an NRA event".

That is the real crux of this years presidential election. It is a race between two people with different views of the second amendment. On one side, McCain will staunchly defend it while an Obama presidency will mean renewed attacks on the second amendment. Whether it be appointments to the supreme court or retaining the right to carry in national parks, Obama's administration will stand against the second amendment. McCain's won't.

Posted by brians at 10:32 AM in Political Issues

NRA's Celebration Of American Values Leadership Forum Part 1

NRA’s Celebration of American Values Leadership Forum was the big event on day 1 of the NRA conference. I sat in the press room and watched many of the speeches. It is much easier than actually going into the hall(especially since the secret service wouldn't allow anyone to carry). Many speakers took to the floor to extol the virtues of the second amendment. If you have been around politics long enough, these speeches become a bit boring after a while. Not because the content is bad, but because politicians have a sanitized way of talking at events. Therefore I spent time walking in the exhibitor hall rather than listening to all of the speakers.

But one speaker stood out from them all. Former Navy Seal Marcus Luttrell. He came out on stage wearing casual clothes which was strikingly different from all of the other speakers. He started out by apologizing for what he was wearing and then went on to tell why he had on the casual clothes. The night before he was at a local bar getting a drink and had on something with a Texas flag. Another patron of the bar with fancy tight clothes, a pencil lined beard, and a heavy foreign accent came over and asked him about the Texas flag and then went into a profanity laced rant about President Bush and America.

It turns out that Mr Luttrell took offense to the fellows words and took him out back and slapped him around a bit. "I didn't want to use my closed fist because he was just too pretty hit". Anyway, the cops came and he spent the night in jail. Which is why he was wearing the same clothes he wore the night before.

He went on to talk about his experience in Operation Red Wing and how he talked about his will and his pride in country which propelled him to keep going. It allowed him to crawl seven miles to a local Afghan tribe where he was rescued.

He said that his job is to bring "hell to the enemies until they no longer want to attack us." He talked about how politics intruded upon them and kept them from doing their job. He talked about how during one of his missions they set fire to some vehicles that had IED residue on them. Clearly the people that owned them were bad guys. Al Jazera came along and filmed the event as a sob story, and his team was grounded for two months because of it.

He also criticized the U.S. media for its coverage of the war. He claimed that Post Traumatic Stress Disorder is what he gets not from the war, but from watching the news. What you see on TV over here... remember there’s so much more going on behind it,”

It was obvious that he wasn't a politician and wasn't involved in politics. His speech was not polished. In fact it was a speech by a good ole boy. One who did his job for his country and was proud of it. His performance was electric and so anti-political that it was the shining moment at the forum.

Posted by brians at 10:23 AM in Political Issues

Friday, 16 May 2008

NRA Convetion Day 1 - Part 1

Last night, I got to attend the "Blogger Bash" at the Makers Mark Lounge down at Fourth Street Live in Louisville. It was fun to meet bloggers from across the country who are so passionate about the second amendment. Everyone seemed to have a great time and no one seemed "bitter" to me. No matter how shocking that might be to Obama.

During the event I got to meet a number of people who work for the NRA, and I spent a good deal of time talking to a couple of those who work in the NRA's PR department. I must say that I am a bit envious of their jobs. They basically get paid to defend the Second Amendment. I imagine it would be quite rewarding to work for an organization that contributes in a such a meaningful way to our society.

Posted by brians at 12:55 PM in Political Issues

Question For Those Against Big Oil

Chris Theineman's latest attack on Northup accuses her of being in bed with the evil "Big Oil" companies. He on the other hand is going to stand up to the oil companies. A position I am sure is shared by Yarmuth!.

Chris Thieneman will NOT accept a dime from Big Oil, and will fight to bring gas prices down by standing up to Big Oil.

Exit question for Chris and Yarmuth!. How are you going to stand up to "Big Oil"? Are you going to raise taxes on them? How is that going to magically lower gas prices? Won't they pass the tax along to the consumers in the form of higher prices? Since that won't work are you going to fix the price of gasoline? How is that not going to lead to shortages? I really want to know how are you going to stand up to Big Oil? And more importantly I want to know in detail how your stand is going to result in lower prices.

Posted by brians at 12:43 PM in Kentucky Politics

Beshear Teaches Lessons In Class

I thought it was pretty classless of Beshear to make a joke insinuating that the only good thing Vice President Cheney could do was shoot the President. I might have been able to let it go as a slip as long as Beshear would at least admit the mistake and apologize for his remarks. Unfortunately, Beshear decided to reach for new depths of classlessness by refusing to apologize for his remarks.

Beshear's spokesman, Dick Brown, says no apology is needed because the governor's remark was "all in good fun."

Oh, I see you can make whatever hurtful, degrading, and spiteful remarks you want as long as they are "all in good fun". Thanks for the lesson in class Governor.

Posted by brians at 12:26 PM in Kentucky Politics

Thursday, 15 May 2008

NRA Convention - Day 0

The NRA was founded in 1871 as an organization to "promote and encourage rifle shooting on a scientific basis". They wanted to advance proper fire arm useage and competitive shooting. A role the NRA actively pursues today.

In the early 1900s second amendment rights came under attack by "progressive" elements in the U.S. In 1934, the NRA formed the Legislative Affairs Division to begin to combat the problem. It handed out legislative facts so its members could decide which candidate would best support second amendment rights.

In 1975, the NRA decided to increase its participation in the political process and formed the Institute for Legislative Action. The NRA-ILA began to actively lobby on behalf of its members second amendment rights.

While the NRA is best known for their impassioned defense of the second amendment, they also are involved in firearm education, safety, and marksmanship.

They provide hunter education courses on proper hunting safety. They provide law enforcement with firearm instruction. They train hundreds of thousands of civilian gun owners every year in proper firearm use. They have an Eddie Eagle gun safe program that teaches kids to "Stop. Don't touch. Leave the area. Tell an adult". They provide seminars that teach tens of thousands of men and women common sense strategies for personal safety.

I can proudly say that I have been a member of the NRA since 2001. I joined shortly after I received my concealed carry permit in Kentucky. I thought at the time it was important to join an organization that shared my values on protecting the second amendment. A group that made it possible for me to obtain my carry permit. I am glad I joined..

I must say it is cool to have such an important institution hold its annual convention in my home town of Louisville Kentucky. It is even cooler that I have been invited to report on the affair as credentialed member of the media. Over the next couple of days, I hope to report on all my experiences. Stay tuned.

Posted by brians at 5:53 PM in Political Issues

Wednesday, 14 May 2008

Will Hillary Have The Election Stolen From Her?

Hillary entered last night trailing in the popular vote by 475,176 votes when you include Florida in the calculations. I left out Michigan because Obama wasn't on the ballot there. Last night's beat down of Obama by Hillary allowed her to pick up 147,410 votes. Cutting Obama's lead down to 327,766 votes.

Next week Kentucky votes. I believe that Hillary is going to score another massive victory here. I think she will win by 30+ points. She may even sweep every county like she did in West Virginia. The only counties that Obama has any a chance of winning are Jefferson and Fayette. If he does manage to win either it will be by a very small margin. I expect Hillary to win the rest of the state in the same fashion she won West Virginia.

If so then I don't see any reason she won't pick up well over 200,000 votes here in Kentucky. Let's say that Obama picks up 100,000 votes from Oregon, Montana, and South Dakota. That still puts Hillary 100,000 votes closer and cuts Obama's lead down to 227,766 votes. That leaves one last primary battle in Puerto Rico. They traditionally have massive turnouts for elections. I suspect they will have well over a million voters casting a ballot in the primary. If Hillary maintains her advantage among Hispanics she could easily win the primary by 25 points giving her a pickup of at least 250,000 votes. Which would propel her to a 25,000 vote lead in the popular vote.

If she wins the popular vote, but is denied the nomination can she not rightly claim that the election was stolen from her?

Posted by brians at 10:24 AM in National Politics

Are West Virginians A Bunch Of Racists?

Hillary destroyed Obama last night in West Virginia winning by over 40 points (68-27). The annihilation was so complete that Hillary won every county. To explain away the lopsided victory, a meme is being floated that West Virginians are nothing but a bunch of racists. I have one question for those who believe this rhetoric. If whites voting for Hillary over Obama by a spread of 68 to 27 make them racist, what does that say about blacks who have voted for Obama over Hillary by a 92 to 7 margin?
Posted by brians at 9:55 AM in National Politics

Tuesday, 13 May 2008

Inside The Poll Numbers

Last night the Lexington Herald released poll numbers showing how Fischer and Lunsford stack up against McConnell in the general election. Not surprisingly McConnell leads by 12 points against either candidate. The poll also shows McConnell's approval ratings at 48% with a disapproval rating of 44%.

At first glance, these number's don't look all that great for McConnell. But when one begins to examine the internals, a problem with polling sample jumps out as problematic.

Age 
18-2917%
30-4431%
45-5932%
60+20%

The elderly (60+) are polled at roughly the same numbers as the 18-29 age group? I find it difficult to believe that the poll's distribution represents the actual voting percentages for each age group. The 60+ group will almost assuredly be a much larger percentage of those voting in the fall than the percentages represented by this poll.

Interestingly enough when we break down vote and approval rating by age we see an interesting phenomenon. First let's look at the approval numbers

AgeApprove/Disapprove
18-2937%/54%
30-4454%/38%
45-5945%/50%
60+57%/33%

Hmm, the most underrepresented group in the poll provide McConnell the highest approval ratings. Coincidence? Now let's look at the most likely match up this fall, McConnell vs Lunsford.

AgeMcConnell - Lunsford
18-2944%-41%
30-4453%-38%
45-5945%-39%
60+52%-32%

Again we see the underrepresented group, 60+, has McConnell with a 20 point lead. Adjusting the poll for reality, two things become apparent. McConnell's real approval rating is some where over 50% and he is really leading Lunsford and Fischer by a minimum of 14 points. One thing is for sure, McConnell is in a more comfortable position than the Herald would lead you to believe.

Posted by brians at 5:28 PM in Kentucky Politics

Monday, 12 May 2008

Nothing To See Here, Move Along Now

We have received the latest round of polling from Survey USA and the Lexington Herald on the state of Kentucky's Democratic primary for US Senate. And surprise surprise, the poll numbers are virtually unchanged from last week.

 USALH
Lunsford41%43%
Fischer23%23%

 

This race is virtually over. The political oxygen in the state is being sucked up by the Obama and Clinton presidential primary. Neither candidate will be able to gain much traction with the media between now and the primary. Which means Lunsford will win the primary easily. My prediction a week out is that Lunsford will under perform and end up just below 40% of the vote. I think Fischer will over perform, but come up well short with around 30% of the vote. David Williams will get 10% of the vote. The rest of the candidates will get between 2-3% of the vote.

Posted by brians at 10:41 PM in Kentucky Politics

Politics Of Personal Destruction

Tonight during a rally for Obama, we were treated to Chandler calling Republican presidential candidate John McCain John Insane. This weekend Beshear said Cheney should shoot Bush. Last week, Patton said that Beshear should have shot Sen David Williams.

I don't know about you, but this sounds a lot like the "politics of personal destruction". These aren't comments that are disagreeing over policies. No, these are comments that are personal attacks. I assume that these quotes will be a front page story for days like it was for Republican Congressman Davis when he referred to Obama as a "boy". I assume the media will justly make calls for apologies from all three of them.

Oh wait, it is only Republicans who practice the politics of personal destruction. It is only Republicans whose comments make the front page. And it is only Republicans who apologize. If you are a Democrat you just get a pass from the media. The joys of double standards.

Posted by brians at 10:16 PM in Kentucky Politics

Beshear Calls For Cheney To Shoot Bush

Beshear is unquestionably a paragon of bi-partisanship. He demonstrated it again this weekend at a Democratic event where he called upon Vice President Cheney to shoot President Bush.

Speaking before Clinton, Gov. Steve Beshear had some fighting words of his own. He tied the plight of the national Democrats to local ones, having reclaimed the office from a Republican incumbent last year. He said Democrats were "problem solvers."

"I can think of only one Republican that could be a problem solver," he added. "And that is Vice President Cheney, if he would just take George on a hunting trip."

Nice. Thanks Gov Beshear for showing us all how classy you can be.

Posted by brians at 10:05 AM in Kentucky Politics

Thursday, 8 May 2008

Why Should Hillary Quit Now?

The talking heads everywhere seem to agree that the race for the Democratic nomination is over. Obama has won and Hillary should realize it and drop out of the race. I only have one question for these people. Why?

I can think of at least three reasons for Hillary to stay in the race.

  1. Look at the results in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Tennessee, and other Appalachian states. Hillary has won the areas of Appalachia by massive margins 30 - 40 points. Therefore I don't think it is a stretch to think she is going to destroy Obama in West Virginia and Kentucky. I think she will win West Virginia by close to 40 points and Kentucky by over 30. I think she could pick up nearly 250,000 votes between the two states. Personally, I think the size of her win in both states are going to shock people and make them take pause.

    Add on top of that a big victory in Puerto Rico and she could legitimately pass Obama in the popular vote when Florida is included. That would give her a legitimate argument for being the nominee.

    Then she can turn her attention to winning the knife fight for delegates between June and August. That is a lot of time to do arm twisting and I think she will do better at this than many people think.

  2. The Rezko trial is winding down. Rezko may decide to plea bargain or if he is found guilty may decide to spill his guts to try and have his sentence reduced. Who knows what sordid details might come out about Rezko's relationships with Obama if that happens.
  3. Obama could easily make more gaffes. Four months is a long time and mistakes happen. If he screws up enough then Hillary can be there to pick up the pieces.

It would be stupid for her to get out now. The game isn't over until the fat lady sings. And she won't sing until August. Hillary knows this is her only opportunity to win the nomination. Why get out now when there is still a chance to win? Even if the chance is slim. No one thought that NC State would beat Houston in 1984. No one thought Villanova would beat Georgetown in 1986. No one thought Appalachia St would beat Michigan last year. But guess what? Each time Cinderella won. There is a lot of time left in the game and weird things can happen. Sometimes the ball takes a crazy bounce. If it were me, I know I wouldn't give up so easily. I would stay in until the end.

Posted by brians at 10:06 PM in National Politics

Wednesday, 7 May 2008

Fischer Makes Move A Little To Late

Survey USA has another poll out that shows Lunsford with a huge lead, but Fischer is closing the gap. The latest numbers show Lunsford leading Fischer 41% - 22%.

Looking at the trends we see that Lunsford has been trending down. This doesn't surprise me. Lunsford isn't exactly a candidate Democrats can get excited about and he carries a lot of baggage which Fischer has exploited. On the other hand Fischer has been trending upwards. Again this isn't surprising either. He has been advertising and has increased his name recognition. He is consolidating a good deal of the "anti-Lunsford" vote.

Unfortunately for Fischer he has made his move too late in the game. Even if the current trend continues for the next two weeks Lunsford will still win by around comfortable 10 point margin. Unless something happens to radically shake up the election, I still think Lunsford will win handily.

Fischer will have no one to blame but himself for the loss. He waited too long to engage in the primary. He had zero name recognition and needed to spend resources early to increase his name recognition. Instead he waited until it was too late and will not surprisingly find himself coming up short.

Posted by brians at 10:12 PM in Kentucky Politics

Never Saw That Coming Part II

I have long been an opponent of animal rights groups like PETA. I find their dogma to be silly at best. They constantly tell us that animals are precious and should never be killed for any reason. Not even as a means to feed ourselves. To them it is immoral to use animal byproducts for food. As if animals share the same moral platform as humans and should never be exploited under any condition.

I always wondered why animals were so special and plants could be killed and eaten in a heart beat. It seemed to me that someone needed to stand up for the rights of plants.

Well that time has come. It appears that the Swiss Federal Ethics Committee on Non-Human Biotechnology created a report entitled, "The Dignity of Living Beings with Regard to Plants"

It is a strange document where they attempt to determine if plants are sentient beings. Regardless of the answer to that question, they believe that plants should be protected from random acts of violence and that any use of plants must have a moral justification.

Therefore I assume it is immoral to spray my lawn to kill off weeds. The whole concept is preposterous. But it is just the next logical step in the dehumanization of man. Such rationalization has taken us down the path that we are no better than animals. Now it is being extended to its logical conclusion. We might not be any better than plants. Amazing.

Posted by brians at 9:56 PM in Political Issues

Tuesday, 6 May 2008

Never Saw That Coming Part I

All along I thought the smoking bans inside was just the first step to a complete smoking ban by the anti-smokers. It has nothing to do with "second hand" smoke and everything to do with their hatred for smoking and smokers.

The next obvious step would be to ban smoking outdoors. Leading the way to this new enlightened society is Bowling Green.

City Manager Kevin DeFebbo has issued a policy to eliminate smoking in almost all locations of the city’s park system. It will go into effect at individual parks, said Parks & Recreation Director Ernie Gouvas, as soon as signs announcing the change can be posted.

That will take awhile, but sooner or later most parks will only allow smoking in parking lots.

I guess the ventilation in the parks must be horrible down in Bowling Green. I didn't know you could be exposed to so much second hand smoke OUTDOORS. Maybe I am being a bit too cynical here. I am sure they have great reasons to ban smoking in parks?

DeFebbo said he knows smoking is a “very visceral issue” with many people, but this is part of the city’s effort to protect public health and set an example for the many children who use public parks.

Give me a break! Let me see if I understand this. They want to set an example for the kids who use the parks? Is this a joke? What we are really telling our kids by banning smoking is much more nefarious. We are demonstrating for them that it is OK to strip society of its freedoms one small step at a time. Something many more times evil than watching a hand full of people smoke cigarettes.

But it doesn't stop there. The "excuses" get better.

Gouvas said that while there are some safety concerns, such as the fire danger around playground wood mulch, the main thrust is toward promoting a healthy community.

I can't believe he sites the fire danger from the wood mulch at the playgrounds. I bet I could throw lit matches onto that mulch for hours and never catch a single piece of mulch on fire. I seriously doubt a cigarette would send a playground up in flames. He had to really stretch to find "reasons" to hide his smoking bigotry.

Posted by brians at 10:37 PM in Political Issues

Thursday, 1 May 2008

Boy Scout Does Right And Is Labeled Weird

I just happened to be looking through the news on the Lexington Herald site when I came across this story in the "weird news" section. It was a story about a Boy Scout who found $800 in a wallet and returned it to the rightful owner.

I was wondering why this ended up in "weird news". I would expect nothing less from a Boy Scout. But then again, the story is probably weird to liberals and the media. They see the Boys Scouts as nothing but bigoted evil homophobes. The fact that Boy Scouts around the country do a good turn daily must come as a shock to them. How can some one so "evil" do something so good. It must be just a weird coincidence.

For the rest of America, we understand what is the true purpose of the Boy Scouts. It is an organization that does more than provide outdoor experiences. It teaches kids valuable skills such as first aid, community involvement, and leadership. More importantly, it works to instill the highest principles in our young men. If you don't believe so, then check out the Scout Oath.

On my honor I will do my best
To do my duty to God and my country
and to obey the Scout Law;
To help other people at all times;
To keep myself physically strong,
mentally awake, and morally straight.

The Scout Law builds on the oath and provides a solid set of foundational principles to lead a good and productive life.

A Scout is:
Trustworthy
Loyal
Helpful
Friendly
Courteous
Kind
Obedient
Cheerful
Thrifty
Brave
Clean
Reverend

It's a shame that we don't have more organizations like the Boy Scouts. Groups that can help instill in our children solid values that will help them to develop into outstanding citizens. The Boy Scouts represent the highest principles that make this country great. They should be honored and not ridiculed or treated as weird.

Posted by brians at 3:13 PM in Political Issues