Thursday, 8 May 2008
Why Should Hillary Quit Now?
The talking heads everywhere seem to agree that the race for the Democratic nomination is over. Obama has won and Hillary should realize it and drop out of the race. I only have one question for these people. Why?
I can think of at least three reasons for Hillary to stay in the race.
-
Look at the results in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Tennessee, and other Appalachian states. Hillary has won the areas of Appalachia by massive margins 30 - 40 points. Therefore I don't think it is a stretch to think she is going to destroy Obama in West Virginia and Kentucky. I think she will win West Virginia by close to 40 points and Kentucky by over 30. I think she could pick up nearly 250,000 votes between the two states. Personally, I think the size of her win in both states are going to shock people and make them take pause.
Add on top of that a big victory in Puerto Rico and she could legitimately pass Obama in the popular vote when Florida is included. That would give her a legitimate argument for being the nominee.
Then she can turn her attention to winning the knife fight for delegates between June and August. That is a lot of time to do arm twisting and I think she will do better at this than many people think.
- The Rezko trial is winding down. Rezko may decide to plea bargain or if he is found guilty may decide to spill his guts to try and have his sentence reduced. Who knows what sordid details might come out about Rezko's relationships with Obama if that happens.
- Obama could easily make more gaffes. Four months is a long time and mistakes happen. If he screws up enough then Hillary can be there to pick up the pieces.
It would be stupid for her to get out now. The game isn't over until the fat lady sings. And she won't sing until August. Hillary knows this is her only opportunity to win the nomination. Why get out now when there is still a chance to win? Even if the chance is slim. No one thought that NC State would beat Houston in 1984. No one thought Villanova would beat Georgetown in 1986. No one thought Appalachia St would beat Michigan last year. But guess what? Each time Cinderella won. There is a lot of time left in the game and weird things can happen. Sometimes the ball takes a crazy bounce. If it were me, I know I wouldn't give up so easily. I would stay in until the end.
