Tuesday, 20 May 2008

Primary Election Results

As I predicted earlier today, there was very little drama in today's primary election. Hillary destroyed Obama 66-30 gaining 250,000 popular votes. Another stunning loss for the anointed nominee of the Democratic party. This type of beating will ensure McCain wins Kentucky in the fall. The only question that remains is how big of a drag will Obama's presence on the ticket be for other Kentucky Democratic candidates in the fall.

Lunsford exceeded my expectations winning 52-34. I didn't think he would get over 50% of the vote. It turns out his name recognition gave him a huge boost in the rural parts of the state. I put the over under for Lunsford at 42 for the general election.

Northup also exceeded expectations by winning the primary with 78% of the vote. She sets up an exciting rematch with Yarmuth! that promises to be another barn burner.

Posted by brians at 10:42 PM in Kentucky Politics
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Low Turnout In The Highlands?

If this report is true, then Obama isn't going to win Jefferson County. Obama is going to need strong turnouts in the west end and highlands if he hopes to offset the votes Hillary will get from the south and east ends. I guess his voters think they have the race wrapped up and decided not to vote.

This news probably doesn't bode well for Fischer's doomed campaign either.

Posted by brians at 4:42 PM in Kentucky Politics
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Primary Predictions

Today's primary has come and it promises to be boring. The only big race that might be close is the Democratic battle in the 2nd Congressional District. Otherwise the statewide races appear to be beatings. The latest Survey USA poll has Hillary leading Obama 62-31. It looks like she will beat Obama by 30+ points here in Kentucky. The only question remaining is will Obama win any counties? Something he failed to do in West Virginia. A huge win in Kentucky will give Hillary another massive boost. If she manages to keep it close in Oregon, she might be able to pass Obama in the total popular vote. Regardless, she is going to continue the trend of beating him in the popular vote since Super Tuesday. The Peurto Rico primary is starting to look really interesting.

The U.S. Senate race looks to prove just as boring as the presidential primary. Lunsford holds a 21 point lead on Fischer, 47-26. As poor of a campaign as Fischer ran, he was unable to capitalize on Democrat unease over Lunsford. That lack of comfort will cause Lunsford to under perform and Fischer to over perform. But 21 points is too much to overcome. I think Lunsford will win somewhere around 43-31

Bonus prediction: Northup will get over 70% of the vote.

Posted by brians at 9:37 AM in Kentucky Politics
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