Tuesday, 20 May 2008
Primary Predictions
« NRA's Celebration Of American Values Leadership Forum Part 2 | Main | Low Turnout In The Highlands? »Today's primary has come and it promises to be boring. The only big race that might be close is the Democratic battle in the 2nd Congressional District. Otherwise the statewide races appear to be beatings. The latest Survey USA poll has Hillary leading Obama 62-31. It looks like she will beat Obama by 30+ points here in Kentucky. The only question remaining is will Obama win any counties? Something he failed to do in West Virginia. A huge win in Kentucky will give Hillary another massive boost. If she manages to keep it close in Oregon, she might be able to pass Obama in the total popular vote. Regardless, she is going to continue the trend of beating him in the popular vote since Super Tuesday. The Peurto Rico primary is starting to look really interesting.
The U.S. Senate race looks to prove just as boring as the presidential primary. Lunsford holds a 21 point lead on Fischer, 47-26. As poor of a campaign as Fischer ran, he was unable to capitalize on Democrat unease over Lunsford. That lack of comfort will cause Lunsford to under perform and Fischer to over perform. But 21 points is too much to overcome. I think Lunsford will win somewhere around 43-31
Bonus prediction: Northup will get over 70% of the vote.
