Wednesday, 16 July 2008
Congressional Money Game
« Happy Cost Of Government Day! | Main | Beshear Gets B On Energy Policy »Fund raising is a huge part of politics. People may hate that fact, but I don't see it that way. I see it as a way to determine organizational strength. A well run campaign can and should be able to raise enough money to be competitive in any race. If someone can't raise money, one has to ask why? Are they in a race that no one believes they will win? Are they unable to put together a team capable of raising money? Do they not have local support? Are they lazy?
Sometimes the answer is they are in a race no one believes a candidate can win. If I live in a district that votes 90% toward one party, the chance of the other candidate winning is close to zero. There is probably only one congressional race that doesn't have a chance of being competitive. That is Hal Roger's seat in the 5th. I don't think anyone has seriously challenged him in decades.
Otherwise there is a reason a candidate for congress is unable to raise money. Mostly it is they are lazy or don't have the organizational skills to put together a competitive campaign. For that reason, I see raising money as a way to weed out candidates who shouldn't be holding office.
Now, let's take a look at all of the congressional races and see where things stand in each of the races. In the first congressional District Heather Ryan has raised nearly $8,000 this year. That is one eight of what Whitfield has raised in the last two months. She has $3,000 cash on hand while Whitfield has just over a million. This race is over. She is not only outclassed by Whitfield she is on the fringe of the political scale. This race will not be close.
The second district is interesting. The latest polls show the race as tight, but the money race isn't. Guthrie raised 3 times Boswell in the last two months. He has $670,000 cash on hand versus Boswell's $42,000. These numbers tell me that Guthrie is not only better organized, but working harder for the seat. While the polls have the race close now, I imagine Guthrie's marked advantages will allow him to pull away from Boswell.
The other interesting race is the third district. The rematch between Yarmuth! and Northup. Surprisingly, Northup was able to out raise Yarmuth! by nearly $200,000 in the last quarter. At this point Yarmuth! only has $200,000 more cash on hand. That is incredible since he is an incumbent in the majority party in Congress. He should have a much larger money lead on her.
I think it speaks to the organizational skills of Northup and her personal abilities as much as it talks about Yarmuth!'s lack of organization. The race currently has Yarmuth! enjoying a 10 point lead. The question is will it hold? This race will hinge on three things.
First, the no drill Democrats will be in a world of hurt if gas prices continue to hover around $4 on election day. This is an issue that has the potential to resuscitate Republicans who have been on life support this cycle.
Secondly, how well will McCain do in Jefferson County. If he hangs close or beats Obama in Jefferson county, Northup will have an excellent chance of winning.
Lastly, how much good will has Northup built up with the black community. She made inroads into the black community when she was a representative and earned the endorsement of a number of west end religious leaders. Can she win nine to ten percent of the black vote that will turn out for Obama?
Maybe the wind is too strong against Northup this time. But Yarmuth!'s ability to consistently represent San Francisco values will eventually catch up with him when the election winds turn.
The fourth district has Geoff Davis up against Michael Kelley. Davis has $800,000 cash on hand to Michael's $12,000. While Michael might not be on the fringe of politics, he has almost zero organization. I suspect this race will play out like the first and Davis will win as easily.
The fifth district hasn't been competitive in a long long time. This time is not different. Hal Rogers has almost a million cash on hand. He won't need any of it.
The sixth district should be an interesting district. Currently, Chandler has over a million cash on hand while we have no idea how much his challenger has. I doubt this will be a competitive race, but it should be. Republicans need to get their act together and find a good candidate. Every year Chandler keeps tilting to the left. Like Yarmuth!, his votes will eventually catch up with him.
