Tuesday, 22 July 2008
Northup Closing Gap On Yarmuth!
Northup has begun closing the gap on Yarmuth! in the election closing the gap to 10 points with over three months to go. I am not surprised by the movement. Northup was a popular congressman who only lost because of the tidal wave that swept Republicans out of power two years ago. She was going to do better once people realized she was running again.
The other issue that is helping her is the high gas prices. The do nothing Democrats in Congress have done zilch to help the energy problems this country faces and Yarmuth! is getting swept up in the growing anger over the price of gas.
While the current polling shows the race at 10 points, it also has 18% of the voters who claim they might change their mind. Once the undecideds are added in to the mix over 20% of the voters could swing for one candidate or the other. That tells me the race while leaning towards Yarmuth! is still up for grab.
The one surprise I did find in the latest numbers is how well Northup is doing among black voters. She is currently garnering 16% of the black vote. While that doesn't sound like much, It is a big percentage for a Republican. If she can hold that margin, I believe she has a realistic chance of winning this race.
It will be interesting to see if the polling continues to move her way over the next couple of months.
