Obama's pick of Joe Biden for Vice President was a dud. Biden, a northeastern liberal, does nothing to move the needle for Obama in Kentucky. McCain's turn to make a VP pick was today and he hit a home run.

Sarah Palin is the closest thing a politician can be to a regular person. She is a hockey mom of five whose husband has two jobs. One as a seasonal fisher and another working a union job with "Big Oil". She is a sportswoman who hunts and fishes. She is a life time NRA member. She is pro-life. She is a reformer of corrupt politics. She is advocate for energy Independence. She is in short a wonderful selection by McCain.

It was her conservative family principles that lead her to win a city council position. Her successes lead her to becoming mayor and eventually governor of Alaska with an 80% approval rating. Her story is a truly inspiring story of a person from limited means working her way up to the Alaska's highest office. At the end of the day, she is a normal person whose passion for principles has lead her to the Governorship and now the role of Vice Presidential candidate.

She is a pick that will connect with the people of Kentucky in a way that Obama and Biden can not. At this point, I would be surprised if McCain doesn't win Kentucky by 20 points. Game over for the Democrats.

The last we saw Beshear, he was touring around the state in hopes of finding some way to revive his floundering administration. Well, the results of his tour are in, and it doesn't look good. Survey USA's latest polling data shows Beshear's approval rating is a whopping 44%. About where he was when the legislative session ended earlier this year.

The lack of positive movement really isn't surprising. He has been wandering around the state looking for some scrap of an idea. The best he can come up with is a plan to raise the cigarette taxes. Not exactly a vision that inspires confidence.

I wouldn't expect any positive movement for Beshear until next years legislative session. And then he will need someone in the Democratic lead state house to come up with a legislative plan beyond raising taxes if he wants to see his numbers rise. With the upcoming battle for speaker of the house, I doubt the Democrats will be any more unified next session than they were this year.

I guess for Beshear there is always 2010.

I always find it amusing to watch the Democratic convention. They bring up one speaker after another. All of whom whine about how government hasn't done something to help them. No where is there any talk about self responsibility. Only what government can do for you. I can usually laugh off their incessant whining, invocations of class warfare, protectionism, and litany's of other failed liberal policies.

But there is one issue I can't let go. And that is the Democrat's ridiculous policy on energy independence. They want to make America energy independent in 10 years. An honorable goal. The only problem is they have no clue how to get there.

They talk about wind power, solar energy, and electric cars. But is it realistic? How are we going to power all of these plug in cars? Wind and solar power have been around a long time and they still aren't viable for primary electricty generation. Should we risk our future economy on the "hope" that we can develop renewable energy sources in 10 years? Are we going to gamble our way of life on technologies that are unproven?

The bottom line is we have no idea if we can make these technologies work in the next 10 years. If we fail, energy prices will skyrocket to levels that make today look paltry. That is the sacrifice that Democrats wish us to bear. A solution that will cripple our economy and destroy our quality of life. Do we want to roll the dice with our economy and way of life? I know I don't.

We can be energy independent, and we don't have to hope for the wind. Fact. We have enough oil off our shores, in Alaska, and in shale oil to meet our energy needs for the next 100 years. We can meet our expanding electricity needs by using another proven technology. Nuclear power. If we start now we can build plants within 10 years that are clean and can handle all of our electricity needs for the future.

All we have to do is tap into our natural resources and develop proven technologies and we will give ourselves the time necessary to build a reliable and cost effective renewable energy source. Make no doubt about it, we need to find renewable sources, but it makes no sense to put all our eggs in one basket. A basket that has shown little promise to deliver.

We need energy independence, but we need a policy rooted in reality and not in fantasy. A policy that we can easily achieve in ten years and not one that asks our citizens to sacrifice needlessly. Oil and Nuclear power are not a hope. They are real. All we have to do is to remove roadblocks and make it easier to tap into these resource and the private sector will do the rest. In the process we can create millions of new jobs and move our country forward. It will make us energy indpenedent. It will buy us the time necessary for viable free market alternative energies to be developed without unduly burdening our economy.

It is the right thing to do and it is the thing we should have started ten years ago. All we have to do is get the Democrats out of the way and we can have the energy independence our country needs and deserves.

The race for the 2nd Congressional District is entering the final two months of the campaign and the money gap between Guthrie and Boswell doesn't appear to be closing. If anything, it looks to be widening.

Guthrie is holding a fund raising event with Republican Whip Roy Blunt tomorrow. It looks like the national Republicans have begun to pitch in helping Guthrie with his fund raising efforts.

Boswell is countering with a fund raising event in Washington D.C.

Boswell, meanwhile, said Monday night he has tentatively scheduled a fund-raiser in Washington, D.C., for Sept. 18 that will be headlined by Democratic Majority Leader Steny Hoyer of Maryland and former U.S. Sen. Wendell Ford, for whom Boswell once worked as a constituent services liaison while Ford was Kentucky's governor.

That is the first sign of help national Democrats have given to Boswell. However, Boswell told reporters that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told Kentuckians at a fund-raiser this summer for U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth that the 2nd congressional race was a target for them. Boswell, who started the summer with $45,000 in his campaign account, acknowledged that he needed to pick up the fund-raising pace before the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee would make a significant investment in the race.

He is doing a fund raiser with Steny Hoyer?. Majority Leader Hoyer is part of the extremely liberal house Democratic leadership. Those in attendance will most likely be national Democratic special interest groups. Any money Boswell happens to raise at this event will tie him directly to the Nancy Pelosi and the national Democratic leadership.

I am sure the Guthrie campaign is licking their chops at the opportunity to paint Boswell as a "hand maiden" of the Democratic left in D.C. But what choice does Boswell have? His inability to raise money in Kentucky has boxed him into a tough position.

On one hand he needs money to be competitive in the race. On the other, the only way he can get money is to expose himself to being linked to the national Democratic party. Either route is poisonous for his campaign. I think Boswell's chances of pulling an upset in November are dwindling every day.

Now that Obama has made his pick for VP, it is safe to officially say that Kentucky will go McCain in the fall. Biden, a northeastern liberal, will do nothing to gain Obama votes in Kentucky and the Democrats in this state know it.

The only chance Obama had to make Kentucky competitive was to pick a VP candidate that would appeal to the Democratic base in Kentucky. I doubt it would have been enough, but he didn't even try. At this point, I believe it is inevitable that Obama will lose Kentucky by double digits. The big question remaining is what effect will that have on the down ticket races?

How does Lunsford beat McConnell when the Democratic presidential candidate gets creamed? How does Boswell beat Guthrie without money and a candidate at the top of the ticket who will get destroyed in the 2nd district? At this point, I am not convinced Obama will even win Jefferson County. If he does, it won't be by much. How will that effect the 3rd district race?

I am interested to see what the polling shows in the coming days.

Update: Ask and you shall receive. It looks like the latest  Survey USA polling data is out and it shows McCain as more trusted than Obama on the top issues of the day. He even leads on those issues in Louisville. Little wonder that McCain leads Obama by 18 points in Kentucky and is tied in Louisville.

The two weeks of the Olympics thankfully ended yesterday. Not because I was sick of the Olympics, but because I was addicted. I spent all of my free time watching everything I recorded on my DVR. I freely admit that my addiction was sad. But I couldn't help it.

There is something inspiring about seeing athletes who have dedicated their entire lives to the being the greatest in their chosen sport. It is fascinating to watch them compete in the most pressure packed environment one can imagine and perform at their best. It has inspired me to fight harder to achieve my own dreams.

Also, I never tire of listening to our national anthem. Nothing is more stirring than seeing our athletes win on the biggest stage. I get fired up rooting for the U.S.A. I felt patriotic chills cheering our athletes and watching them win more medals than any other country. Even more than the host country.

Think about that for a second. We beat a country with 5 times our population. A country that rips kids away from their parents at a young age to train them exclusively for athletics. A country that has to cheat to win medals.

Nothing showcases the power of a free people than the our country's accomplishments in the Olympics. Even against the odds and an unfriendly crowd, our country succeeded. But we weren't the only country. Look at the top 10 countries in the medal count. It is littered with other free countries like England, Italy, France, Australia, Germany and the Ukraine. In fact the free countries in the top 10 totaled 370 medals compared to the 170 racked up by repressive regimes like China and Russia. Free countries dominated this Olympics.

It is great to know that freedom is still the shining light for all the world to see.

Boswell's campaign for Congress is a mess. How bad is it? Fischer, the loser from the U.S. Senate primary, is trying to step in and salvage the race.

Fischer told Democrats at a Frankfort party event Tuesday night that if Boswell shows strong fund-raising he could attract help from Democrats in Washington, such as the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. That organization has a program called "Red to Blue" that focuses on helping candidates in open an competitive races in districts held by Republicans. Boswell, so far, hasn't cracked that list.

"He is being received as a tremendous candidate throughout the state," Fischer told the Franklin County Democratic executive committee. "People just want to see him raise a little bit more money and maybe get the DCCC involved and build the campaign."

Fischer is hopping that the DCCC will come in and build the campaign? It might be their only hope since it looks like Boswell isn't about to do it for himself. Unfortunately, the national Dems aren't about to waste money to help build a campaign. They will spend money on better organized campaigns where an infusion of cash could give them a chance. A little late fund raising on Boswell's behalf isn't going to change that simple fundamental.

Even so, it will be interesting to see how well Fischer does in his endeavor.

Fischer said he will begin to set up fund-raising events across the 2nd congressional district where Boswell, a longtime Democratic state senator from Daviess County, faces Republican state Sen. Brett Guthrie of Bowling Green in that open seat race.

After watching Fischer's horrendous campaign for U.S. Senate, I am willing to bet that he isn't able to raise much money for Boswell. Regardless, it is up to the candidate to raise the money. If Boswell doesn't want it, it won't happen. And I haven't seen anything to indicate that Boswell wants it. Fischer's efforts would probably be better spent elsewhere.

The latest numbers are in and it looks bad for Lunsford. He currently trails McConnell 52-40. The poll internals can't provide much comfort for Lunsford.

First let's look at the cross section by region.

Lunsford is being pummeled by McConnell throughout the rural parts of the state. On the flip side he enjoys a 6 point lead in Louisville. Unfortunately for Lunsford, he can not win the election without winning Louisville by 10+ points. As I have said before, Lunsford's antics as CEO are well known in Louisville. I believe that it creates a difficult head wind for him. A dynamic which puts him at a definite disadvantage from the start. He needs to find a way to overcome it if he is going to make the race close.

The outlook is drearier when looking at gender.

 Lunsford is trailing by the same amount with both women and men. The poor showing among women tells the tale of Lunsford's likability. Women have traditionally been a strong ally of Democrats, but Lunsford is trailing with them by a significant number. He must have made a very poor first impression with women. I have no idea how he turns these numbers around.

The only bright spot for Lunsford in the poll, if it can be called that, is that Republicans may have been oversampled. I don't believe it was by more than a few points since Republicans tend to vote in bigger numbers than Democrats. But it means the race is probably in the 8-10 point range ant not 12. Regardless, it is a comfortable lead for an incumbent at this stage of the race. Lunsford is going to have to find a way to change the fundamental dynamics of the race if he wants to win. Unfortunately for him, it looks like McConnell isn't about to let that happen.

The Courier Journal has a story today on the plans for the University Of Louisville's Shelby Campus. The university has decided to turn it into a research and office park.

The goal is to develop 108 acres of the 230-acre campus for business, office, technology and research use, said Burt Deutsch of the University of Louisville Development Co., which was formed in May to oversee the project. It is an affiliate of the U of L Foundation; the U of L trustees have directed the foundation to oversee the development of Shelby Campus.

To me, this move shows the absolute lack of vision our state has on higher education. For a long time, I have believed that the state needs to commit to having a world class engineering and science program. The best way to do that is to combine all of the engineering and science programs across the state into one school. It would maximize expenditures to make sure students have both top flight equipment and teachers. I have long thought that the perfect location for such a school was on Shelby Campus.

It would allow the state to centralize its engineering and science programs into a single school in the heart of the biggest city in Kentucky. It would provide an opportunity for real technological growth in our state.

It has already worked for two other southern states. Georgia has Georgia Tech in Atlanta and North Carolina has NC State located in Raleigh. Both schools focus on engineering and sciences and both are flagships for thriving technological centers in the South.

Kentucky is near the center of population mass in the United States. It is one of the primary reasons UPS resides here. We need to take advantage of our ideal location and develop a thriving center for technology. We could easily attract people from all over the Eastern, Midwestern, and Southern parts of the country.

Such promise must start with a new vision for Kentucky's higher education. Unfortunately, it appears the university system would rather keep doing what they are doing rather than embrace a different direction for tomorrow.

I have been really busy the last week, so I wanted to take a moment to catch up on Beshear's accomplishments for the week.

Cronyism

He began last week with a bang by appointing a pardoned Patton henchman to the Labor department and kept the momentum going in grand style by appointing Democratic Sen Scorsone and an old associate Julie Muth Goodman to fill vacant judgeships. A solid trifecta for Beshear!

I must say that his campaign slogan "Taking care of our own" is the one promise he has kept with a great deal of gusto during his time as governor. I just feel bad for the people who were duped into believing that the slogan meant all Kentuckians.

Do As I Say And Not As I Do

It always makes me laugh when Democrats talk about the need to sacrifice. They want everyone else to sacrifice while they continue on doing whatever they want. The latest example of this is Beshear's trip to Japan.

While I don't have a problem with going to Japan to build potential business relationships, I think he could have done it without spending an arm and a leg. Beshear spent over $86,000 on the trip. Making it one of the most expensive trips by a governor ever.

During his budget speech, Beshear said everyone must tighten their belts.

"This is a budget in which state government and all of its organizations must prove that they can be better stewards of the taxpayers' hard-earned money," Beshear said.

However, Beshear, first lady Jane Beshear, four key administration officials and two Kentucky State Police troopers spent a week in Japan earlier this summer and the nearly $86,000 made it among the most expensive of its kind for what's become a traditional trip for Kentucky governors.

Again, I am not saying the trip was a bad idea. I just think Beshear could have shown some fiscal restraint. But then again, that really isn't the Democrat way.

Another week and no new surprises. I didn't expect for him to make any changes. He continues to use the same plays from the same old worn out playbook that Democrats have used for the last 100 years in this state. I was just hoping that he might try something new. Maybe while his traveling around the state looking for an idea, he can look for a couple of new moves for his decrepit play book.

What a interesting day. It began with a trip to downtown Madison where my wife, some friends, and I went to catch a bus to the site of the Great Taste. We arrived a couple of hours early for the shuttle and decided to use the time to walk around the capital of Wisconsin. We were treated with a farmer's market in the square. Normally, there wouldn't be anything special about a farmer's market except for the fact that Madison is a strong hold of left wing socialism.

That means we were amused by various table set up by the wacky left. The first of these tables I saw was the "Impeach Bush" table. I almost went up to ask them why they still wanted to impeach Bush. He will be out of office in a few months. Instead of playing with liberals in the wild, I just thought I would observe them in their natural habitats.

We saw all kinds of fun stuff. We saw the 9/11 truthers. We saw animal right activists. We saw pro-Palestinians. We saw a number of people distributing Obama literature. But the most amusing were the pro-UN people. I didn't know we had pro-UN people in this country.

After getting a taste of the local culture, we headed to the Great Dane Pub for lunch. Not wanting to pre-game before the main event, we ate a beerless lunch which was very good. Once lunch was consumed, we headed out to catch the shuttle. I was amused to see school buses show up to take people to the event.

We arrived at the park about 45 minutes before the event, and was greeted with a huge line snaking from the entrance into the field below. Event workers came around and traded our tickets for arm bands to provide entry. At 1:00 PM CDT, the gates opened and people rushed through the gates. For us way back in the line, it took about 25 minutes to advance to the front gate where we picked up our 4 oz glass and a program.

Some of our friends were in line before us and they found a place to set up our chairs. We met them inside and set up a "mini-camp" that would be our staging area. The event itself consisted of 6 large tents that held hundreds of different breweries. Each brewery brought a hand full of their beers for sampling. All one had to do was go up to any of the brewer's table and they would pour four ounces of whichever micro-brew you asked for.

In addition to the beer, they provided water jugs, a place to wash out glasses, porta-potties, and a food tent where one could buy food.

I spent the first 30 minutes going through the program and mapping out beers I wanted to taste with locations in each of the 6 tents. I don't really like hoppy beers, creamy beers, Belgians, or meades. But I do like dry stout's, dunkles, browns, and marziens (Octoberfests). Thus I decided to stick to beers I liked. Unfortunately, there weren't any dunkles at the fest. While disappointing, it wasn't that big of a deal. There was still plenty of others to try.

After mapping things out, I worked my way through each tent one at a time. I tasted over 20 different brewers over the five hours we were there. Most of the beers were good or very good. Only a few were so retched that they had to be poured out. For me, the best of show was Viking Brewery's Dark Marzien. It stood out well above all the rest.

The only down side to trying that many beers is the fact that many of them begin to taste the same over time.

What was most amazing about the event was how well behaved everyone was. Most people were drunk, but everyone seemed to be getting along. I imagine that had to do with the fact that the average age of those attending was in the mid 30's and mostly middle class. I was a bit surprised by how many women were in attendance. I would say 30 percent of those attending were women.

I had a most enjoyable time and would recommend it for anyone who likes beer.

If I were going to attend the event again, I would do some things differently. I would go early in the morning and try to pick up a program. Take it to lunch and pour over it while eating.

Instead of showing up 45 minutes early and standing in line, I would probably show up about an hour after the event started. Why so late? To avoid the crowds. In the first two hours the tents are packed. As the day goes forward, the lines become short and it is easy to get beers. I also wouldn't take chairs. One can always sit on the hillside to rest. The only thing I would take to the event was a fanny pack with water and a couple of snacks.

This weekend is the "Great Taste of the Midwest" in Madison Wisconsin. For those who don't know, it is one of the largest beer festivals in the United States. There are going to be over 100 breweries serving a selection of their wares for about 6 hours Saturday.

We were fortunate to get tickets for the annual event. They only sell 5000. 3000 of them are sold locally while 2000 are sold through a mail in lottery. Two of my friends mailed in applications to enter the drawing and they both won 4 tickets.

My wife and I were among those invited to attend so we are road tripping to Wisconsin today. Having never been to a large beer fest before, I'll be reporting on what should be an interesting experience.

(I would live blog the event, but I am not sure I'll be sober enough to write coherently. I have a hard enough time writing when I am sober)

Last week, Gov Beshear decided his administration didn't have enough cronies. So he decided to bring in Danny Ross to be a policy adviser in the Labor cabinet.

Gov. Steve Beshear has appointed Danny Ross, who was charged with felony campaign-finance violations during Gov. Paul Patton's administration, to a $60,000-a-year job as policy adviser to Labor Secretary J.R. Gray.

Those issues are in the past. We've moved forward,\u201c Beshear spokesman Jay Blanton said Thursday.

In 1998, a grand jury under the direction of then-Attorney General Ben Chandler indicted Ross and several other Patton allies, including two Louisville Teamsters and the governor's chief of staff, Andrew "Skipper" Martin.

They were accused of steering labor union funds to Patton's 1995 Democratic gubernatorial campaign in excess of fund-raising limits. Patton narrowly defeated Larry Forgy, his Republican opponent, and almost immediately, questions were raised about the legality of some union activities in Louisville.

Ross, a former union steward, is half-brother to House Speaker Pro Tem Larry Clark, D-Louisville.

In a highly controversial move, Patton pardoned all four defendants toward the end of his term in 2003 before a trial could be scheduled, after many appeals and delays.

I don't know how to respond to this story. It is surreal to me that Beshear would bring in one of those involved in the votes buying scheme from the Forgy / Patton election in 1995. The only reason this guy isn't in jail is because Patton pardoned him.

Instead of making the obvious scornful remarks about our most ethical and bi-partisan governor ever, I have decided to look at the positive behind the appointment. Maybe this means he is at the bottom of the barrel of old partisan Democratic cronies to appoint. If there are no more cronies, he will be forced to bring in fresh faces to state government or heaven forbid maybe even a Republican. We can only hope!

Coming into this election season, the chances for Republican candidates looked only slightly better than abysmal. But then a quirky little thing happened. Gas prices rose to over $4 a gallon. It turned out that when prices eclipsed $4 a gallon the average Joe got pissed off. He saw not only the cost of filling his gas tank skyrocket, but the cost of goods he purchased every day rise.

The Democrats started by blaming "Big Oil" for the rise in prices. When that didn't work, they moved on to commodity speculators as the culprit. Now they are talking about ending our reliance on oil. All of which is a smoke screen to hide their real agenda. The Dems are beholden to environmental groups and they want even higher oil prices.

Obama admitted as much by saying that he didn't have a problem with the price of gas. He had a problem with how fast prices increased.

The public isn't buying the dance. They know that the high cost of oil is a supply problem. They also know that we are sitting on supplies that make Saudi Arabia's oil fields look puny. The polls consistently reflect the fact that a large and growing majority of people are wanting us to tap into our own resources to become energy independent.

The Democrats are on the wrong side of this issue and they know it. Heck, Nancy Pelosi is even trying to provide political cover for members of her own party this fall.

But what looks like intraparty tension on the surface is part of an intentional strategy in which Pelosi takes the heat on energy policy, while behind the scenes she’s encouraging vulnerable Democrats to express their independence if it helps them politically, according to Democratic aides on and off Capitol Hill.

Pelosi’s gambit rests on one big assumption: that Democrats will own Washington after the election and will be able to craft a sweeping energy policy that is heavy on conservation and fuel alternatives while allowing for some new oil drilling. Democrats see no need to make major concessions on energy policy with a party poised to lose seats in both chambers in just three months — even if recess-averse Republicans continue to pound away on the issue.

“The reality is we will have a new president in three months, and what Bush and the Republicans are trying to do amounts to a land grab for the oil companies,” said one senior House Democratic aide involved with party strategy. “I don’t think we have to give in at all pre-election — we have many more options postelection.”

The reality of the matter is that the Democrats have a position that is unpopular with 70+ percent of the population. As the unresolved issue drags on, I am beginning to wonder if oil prices can be a game changer in this election. At the end of the day, people vote their pocket books and oil prices are THE pocket book issue of the election.

I believe we are already seeing signs of the beginning of a swing Republicans way. Obama's support is falling across the board. McConnell has stretched his lead to double digits. Northup is closing the gap with Yarmuth!.

With three months to go, the public's anger will only go stronger over the high prices. If the Republicans keep pounding the Democrats over it, I believe there exists a real chance of nationalizing these elections. The last time that happened was in 1994. And like 1994, the Republicans are position to ride the wave of anger into an unexpected sweeping victory.

Three months is a long time in politics, and anything can still happen. But what we do know is that for at least 5 weeks no action is going to be taken on the issue. That provides a 5 week window of opportunity to see if such a wave is truly forming.

A number of people have said Beshear's speech at Fancy Farm might have been the best speech of the day. Looking back over my notes for the day, I noticed that Beshear began his speech by telling the crowd how he was planning on taking care of Western Kentucky. He was going to finish the Ky 80 corridor and in general he was going to spend more money on the roads in the western part of the state.At the time I didn't think much of it. It just seemed to me he was pandering to the audience. 

Now stories are popping up about how Beshear's administration is planning to cut back spending on our road systems. Guess what? There appears to be cuts to road projects in the western portion of the state.

For instance, a stretch of KY 80 in the western part of the state has been built as a four-lane road, but the idiots running the Transportation Cabinet have decided to only pave two of the four lanes before the road opens later this year.

So much for the longstanding promise by governors of both parties to build a four-lane US 68/KY 80 corridor across the southern tier of the Commonwealth.

Transportation officials did say that a bridge project in Murray — which was slated to cost upwards of $300 million — would likely be pared down.

And Mark Hebert is reporting of cuts on projects by Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley

Beshear cited the expansion of the twin bridges over Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley in Western Kentucky as an example of a project who's scope will be cut back.

So much for Beshear's promise to spend more money on the road systems in western Kentucky. He started off his speech at Fancy Farm by directly lying to those of us in the crowd. A perfect way to start a "great speech".

When people think of fitness, they think of going to the gym and working out to get in shape. Or they think of sitting on an some machine to burn calories. They believe that the only way to win the battle of the bulge is to bust your ass working out.

What most don't understand is that while working out is important, fitness isn't won in the gym. It is won at the kitchen table. While working out builds muscles and makes one look buff, it is the fuel we put in out bodies that makes the gains possible. It provides us with the energy to work out and makes it easier for us to lose weight.

All foods we consume are broken down into a unit of energy called a kilocalorie. We generally refer to them as just calories. Our body needs a certain number of calories to function daily. This is known as the basal metabolic rate or BMR. This is an easily calculable value. Below is the formula for men and women. The results of the calculation should be accurate within 10%.

Women:
655 + (4.3 x weight in pounds) + (4.7 x height in inches) - (4.7 x age in years)

Men:
66 + (6.3 x weight in pounds) + (12.9 x height in inches) - (6.8 x age in years)

Plugging in numbers for myself I get a BMR value of 1758 calories. That means I burn that many calories a day doing nothing more than breathing. For someone with a day to day desk job like I have, you can multiply that number by 1.2 to get the basic number of calories that I burn in a given day. This number is what I call the tipping point. When I do the calculation I get 2109. Thus 2100 calories is my tipping point.

Weight control is simple equation. All of the fancy plans and diets you read about all come down to this simple equation. If I eat more than my tipping point of 2100 calories a day I store the excess calories as fat and gain weight. If I eat less than 2100 calories a day, I burn excess body fat to meet my daily needs. By doing so I lose weight. Now if I want to lose a pound of weight I must burn off 3500 calories worth of fat. That means I would have to eat at a 500 calorie deficit or 1600 calories a day for an entire week to lose 1 pound of fat.

The reason we exercise is to change the basic formula. If I burn 400 calories a day in exercise then my tipping point is 2500 calories a day. That means I can eat 2000 calories a day and still lose 1 pound a week. A much more reasonable way to lose weight.

Since the formula for BMR is not completely accurate and your daily activities can vary, you might have to play around to find out what your tipping point is calorie wise. The only way to know for sure is to track your daily caloric intake.

The only way to know that number is to track what you eat every day. I know that can sound painful, but sites like Fitday make the process a lot less painful. They have most foods in their database so all you have to do is plug in what you ate and they calculate all of the calories automatically. I have been using it for a few months now and I find it is easy to track my food intake.

If you are looking for additional motivation to track your food, a recent study has shown that people who track their food lose considerably more weight than those who do not.

Keeping a food diary -- a detailed account of what you eat and drink and the calories it packs -- is a powerful tool in helping people lose weight, U.S. researchers said on Tuesday.

The study involving 1,685 middle-aged men and women over six months found those who kept such a diary just about every day lost about twice as much weight as those who did not.

The findings buttressed earlier research that endorsed the value of food diaries in helping people lose weight. Companies including Weight Watchers International Inc use food diaries in their weight-loss programs.

The third step in my program is tracking the food we eat. By doing so we can learn what our tipping point is. That gives us powerful knowledge. It allows us to make smart decision about what we need to eat and how much we have to work out to meet our goals. It is a vital metric in living a healthy lifestyle. In the next step we will discuss what we need to be eating to live a healthy life followed by a strategy for exercising.

02:18:32 PM A little while ago, the Bluegrass band, No Tools Loaned, played Carroll Hubbard's campaign song - "We're in the Jailhouse Now"

02:18:57 PM I have to give credit to my wife for that one. It made me laugh.

02:20:08 PM We are about an hour away from the speeches and the place is already crowded.

02:23:00 PM I was reminiscing earlier about the good ole days of Fancy Farm. In those days the media was in the back and the crowd was mere feet from the speakers. Now the media is up front and the crowd is all seated behind them. It is almost become a civilized affair.

02:28:30 PM And so the street show begins. McConnell has a bunch of people dressed as oil sheiks. They have signs saying I heart Bruce Lunsford and Hugo Chavez hearts Bruce Lunsford. Pretty funny. And the Republican crowd went nuts.

02:28:30 PM Chants of 6 more years have started.

02:28:33 PM Ditch Mitch chants started and died almost immediately

02:30:01 PM I always love McConnell's street theater. It is definitely worth coming down here to watch it.

02:46:01 PM The Blue Grass band has finished playing and they are starting the program . They are currently presenting the Pioneer Awards

02:48:42 PM The seats up on the stage is starting to fill in, but none of the speakers have sat down yet.

02:53:47 PM Sen Bunning is the first to appear on the stage.

02:53:49 PM Lunsford has his own street theatre here, but it doesn't make any sense. They have a person dressed up as Darth Vader wearing a McConnell mask. They have someone dressed as a Cowboy wearing a McConnell mask. They have another person dressed as a Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtle wearing a McConnell mask. I really have no idea what they are supposed to represent. Even the Democrat next to me had no clue what they were for. The last two were a person wearing a Bush mask followed by a person in a dog costume wearing a McConnell mask. I actually get that one. McConnell is the lap dog for Bush. All in all it is very confusing and is not obvious. Lunsford's crew gets a D- for street theater.

02:54:28 PM I feel sorry for the poor girl in the dog suit. That has to be hot. It is well over 90 degrees and she is in a full dog suit.

02:55:18 PM McConnell shows up to chants of 6 more years start up again.

02:57:38 PM The crowd is definitely primed to go.

02:59:03 PM Both sides are chanting now. The place is rocking.

03:00:35 PM Whitfield is here. Not really sure where the Democrat speakers are.

03:01:16 PM The Dems are all up there now.

03:07:05 PM Time for opening prayer

03:13:04 PM Now we sing My Old Kentucky Home

03:16:46 PM Followed by the National Anthem

03:18:55 PM House Majority Leader Rocky Atkins is the master of ceremonies. He is talking about the history of Fancy Farm and its place in modern politics. He thinks the Fancy Farm picnic is what politics is all about. He is now going over the rules of the day. Some in the crowd shouted out "no felons on stage". I yelled out "No problem, Beshear would pardon them." The final rule is if you go over the 5 minutes allotted the band would start playing. People started yelling out "Strike up the band" to get Rocky to get on with the show. 

03:25:15 PM Beshear is the first speaker of the day. He started by saying the Republicans in the crowd should be dressed for a funeral. Because the Democrats are going to bury their candidates. Now he is pandering to Western Kentucky on how the Dems are going to take care of them. The crowd starts chanting "Grayson" during the speech. Beshear goes on to thank Bunning for showing up for the speeches. Bunning agreed to come after Beshear ensured him that he would call out the National Guard to protect him. That was pretty funny. Now Beshear is transitioning to how Republicans are destroying the middle class. This sounds a lot like Edward's two Americas speech. Ugh. He transitioned to say that Republicans are for Big Oil with more money going overseas. Wow, that was a big mistake. The Republicans immediately started changing "Drill Now". Ooops, way to play to the Republican's strength Beshear. He finishes his speech chiding Republicans for the way they treat returning veterans and their big spending habits and how we are ready to elect Democrats is a "sea of change".

03:33:48 PM That was a pretty good speech.

03:41:00 PM Lunsford was next after losing the coin toss. The first part of his speech is a screed to the woes of the middle class. He is talking about how the American dream and how he came from poor up bringing to make it. He is driveling on about how that dream is dying for people today. The crowd starts chanting "Booring" and "Three time loser". Lunsford finishes with an attack on McConnell for his failed leadership. That he cares more for special interests than the people of the state. He then asks if you are better off now than you were 6 years ago. I thought about it and have to say yes I am. 6 years ago we were in the middle of the down turn after 9/11. The stock market was still in the tank at that time. So yes we probably are better than we were 6 years ago.

03:46:26 PM McConnell spoke next and he got up to chants of "6 more years".  He immediately starts skewering the Democrats for high gas prices. He says that don't want to lower gas prices. Obama isn't sad about the high prices only on how fast the prices rose. "At least Bill Clinton would have felt your pain". A Dem staffer admitted that the Democrat's plan is to "drive small cars and wait for the wind". Obama says we can solve the problem by inflating our tires and getting a tune up. "So all we need is new tires and a trip to Jiffy Lube". He finishes his speech by a series of "yes we can statements". Drill for oil - yes we can. Nuclear power ("If the French can do it so can we") - yes we can. Coal to liquid - yes we can. Break our dependence on oil. We can find more and use less - yes we can. Good speech.

03:46:49 PM Bunning is next up to the podium. He starts talking about how the Democrats want to kill Kentucky's top energy source coal. Sen Leader Reid said "coal makes us sick". "They want to destroy our coal industry and Bruce Lunsford wants to join them." The Dems are chanting "No more lies". Now Bunning is going after Obama for wanting to implements Carter's taxes on Big Oil. We will get what we got back then: less oil production and more dependence on the Middle East. Obama / Lunsford want higher gas taxes. He then talks about Bruce's automatically adjusting tax that has cause a tax increase every summer since 2004. The crowd is now chanting "Thanks, Bruce". He ends his speech by saying that Lunsford should talk to Obama  about it in Lunsford's Chicago home. More red meat than I suspected Bunning. That was the best speech I have heard him give in a long time.

04:01:26 PM Heather Ryan lost the coin toss and went next. She was greeted by chants of "You are crazy". She began her speech talking about how this was a life long dream of hers. She got into the race because of McConnell because he is a scumbag. She won't sell out because she is one of us. The chants changed to "You don't matter". She then lambastes Ed "Exxon" Whitfield for getting rich off of oil companies. She reiterates that she won't be bought because she is one of us. Who does she think she is Eva Peron? Her speech would have been better if she didn't sound like she was screeching.

04:07:16 PM Ed Whitfield followed and started by asking why Ryan is running against him if she is so mad at McConnell. He then talks about how Pelosi, Reid, and Obama want to bring San Francisco and Chicago values to rural America. They want to deny the second amendment rights. They embrace Gore's energy plan. They want to end America's use of coil and oil. They want to outsource oil exploration to other countries. He then asks why we can't drill. Pelosi won't allow them to bring it to the floor for a vote. He then make reference to China drilling off our coast for Cuba because we won't. He finished the speech talking about how he is helping residents in Western Ky.

04:09:22 PM Mongiardo is next up and starts by saying that Lunsford is going to take out the puppet master while Ryan is going to take out the puppet. He followed that up with some attack on Bunning and little green men. I really don't know what he is talking about here. It almost sounds like he is still bitter from losing the senate race against him. He moves on to attacking McConnell. He calls him a partisan who only cares about fillibustering. He is a practicitioner of "dark politics of the past". Then he tries to end by stealing from McConnell with his own yes we can, but he went over the the time allotment. A rather strange speech.

04:15:29 PM Next up is Trey Grayson.

04:18:55 PM Greyson starts by saying the official drink for Democrats this year is Kool Aid. He then accuses Beshear of trying to steal his ideas. He says Beshear holds a press conference thinking about allowing a 4 day work week, and then the press comes down to Grayson's office to see how it is actually working.He then congratulates Mongiardo on his recent marriage and then says he is better at picking his wife than his successor in the senate. He then moves on to Bruce Lunsford and said he knew him before he ran for office. He called the latest version of Lunsford, Bruce 4.0. He says he liked version 1.0 better. Bruce 1.0 knew that taxes were bad for business. That public union ballots where un-American. Not to flip-flop on oil.That health is better managed by people than the government. He finished by saying we need people who lead and not talk about it. A surprisingly good speech from Greyson.

04:19:18 PM Todd Hollenbach is next up.

04:23:02 PM He starts his speech by referencing McConnell's first run for office and how McConnel went after Huddleston saying that two terms is enough. "If two terms is enough then five terms is too much:. I wonder if Hollenbach even remembers McConnell's first campaign. How old was he at the time? 10. How does he know what McConnell's message was at the time? The rest of his speech is about McConnell being bought by special interests. The most memorable part of the speech was when the crowd chanted "who are you?".

04:30:55 PM Carroll Hubbard was next an talked about local issues. How is he a candidate? He went to jail for corruption charges while a congressman.How is he the best candidate the Democrats can put forth?

04:33:30 PM Winters is the last speaker I am covering. He talked about local issues as well.

04:34:54 PM That about wraps up the live coverage.The Republicans all stayed on the on the same theme. They hammered the Democrats for blocking expanded oil exploration. It was fairly effective. The Democrats on the other hand didn't have a very coherent message. The only theme they hit with any regularity is that McConnell is bought by special interests. I didn't find the attacks very effective. Kind of like thier weak attempt at street theater.

04:52:56 PM One thing that wasn't surprising was the Democrat's avoidance of Obama. None of them talked about Obama with the exception of Beshear. They avoided him like the plague. He must really be more unpopular in this state than I originally thought.

04:53:28 PM Fun fact of the day: Republicans won all of the coin tosses.

11:27:19 AM Well, my wife and I have arrived at Fancy Farm in anticipation of an interesting show of political theatre.

11:35:02 AM We decided to show up early so we could get a seat under the pavillion and close to the action. We succeeded in getting a second row seat. Unfortunately, it is behind the "anti-Mitch" people.

11:37:49 AM I think it is odd that there is almost zero pro Lunsford material. They have decided to go all negative on McConnell. I am not a big fan of the 'anti' strategy. You don't win many elections if you can't tell people a positive reason they should vote for you.

11:37:49 AM vote for you

11:39:01 AM We were so early that we got to see both sides putting up their signs. McConnell was putting up yard signs while the Lunsford group was putting up "Anti-Mitch' material.

11:42:00 AM We saw a ton of "felon" Hubbard senat signs along with a huge numbr of re-Winters for Senate signs. It is sad that the Democrats can't find a better candidate than a former felon convicted on corruption charges.

11:46:29 AM The funniest thing we saw this morning were the Ryan 4 Congress signs. They were hand spray painted. They scream "high school student council" campaign. Not a serious campaign for Congress. I'll have to post a picture when I get home.

11:53:18 AM I'll check back in as we get closer to the speech time.

Rasmussen Reports released new polling data for the Kentucky U.S. Senate race. They show McConnell up 50 - 38 on Lunsford. McConnell has opened up a comfortable 12 point lead after earlier polls showed the race neck and neck.

I originally thought the race would be around 10 points. McConnell is running in a difficult environment, but Lunsford isn't exactly a stellar candidate. The last couple of polls have validated my original speculation. And it lends more weight to my belief that the earliest polling was an anomaly.

At this point, I think Lunsford is in trouble for a number of reasons.

1. His approval rating is 42 percent. He is going to have to find a way to move this number above 50. The problem is he is also going to have to go on the attack. When you do that, it is very difficult to improve your positive ratings.
2. McConnell's approval rating is at 55 percent. That puts McConnell in a position of strength as the campaign becomes competitive. He has more good will to lean against.
3. Obama is still behind in Kentucky and will probably lose Kentucky. So Lunsford can't look for any coat tails.
4. Lunsford is from Louisville. It is very difficult for politicians from Louisville to do well out in the state.
5. Lunsford's strong hold should be Louisville, but that is where he did the most damage as CEO of Vencor. There are a lot of people who worked for Vencor that really don't like him for what he did to the company. He left a lot of people with worthless stock. Heck I know two non political people that worked for Vencor and Lunsford's name is somewhere well below mud..
6. The national Democrats aren't making it easy on him. Their refusal to let any vote on expanding drilling for oil has put them on the wrong side of the most pressing problem facing voters today. A solution that voters are demanding in greater numbers every day.

While none of these points taken individually are impossible to overcome, combined they become are a huge wall to scale. And that is just to make the election close.

Rasmussen released the latest numbers from Kentucky this week. It shows McCain still enjoying a comfortable lead over Obama 49 - 39.

The 10 point lead is the closest the race has been since the end of the Democratic primary. Is this a trend that will continue? I doubt it. Obama has a small lead nationally which means he is off his national numbers by at least 11 points.

The only way I see him winning Kentucky is if he jumps out to a 15 plus point lead nationally which is highly unlikely.

The bigger problem with an Obama surge is the fact that he would have to dramatically improve his favorability numbers in Kentucky.

Right now Obama has a 48 percent approval rating to McCain's 60 percent. It is hard to poll higher than your approval numbers. And you can't win without 50 percent of the vote. As much positive exposure as Obama has enjoyed, I find it hard to believe he will be able to move the needle more than 5 points.

At the same time, I believe McCain is just as well known a quantity in Kentucky. I find it difficult to think his numbers will plummet the 10 plus points that would make an Obama victory a possibility.

So unless things change dramatically in the next couple of months, McCain will win this state easily.