Saturday, 2 August 2008

Fancy Farm - Live Blogging

11:27:19 AM Well, my wife and I have arrived at Fancy Farm in anticipation of an interesting show of political theatre.

11:35:02 AM We decided to show up early so we could get a seat under the pavillion and close to the action. We succeeded in getting a second row seat. Unfortunately, it is behind the "anti-Mitch" people.

11:37:49 AM I think it is odd that there is almost zero pro Lunsford material. They have decided to go all negative on McConnell. I am not a big fan of the 'anti' strategy. You don't win many elections if you can't tell people a positive reason they should vote for you.

11:37:49 AM vote for you

11:39:01 AM We were so early that we got to see both sides putting up their signs. McConnell was putting up yard signs while the Lunsford group was putting up "Anti-Mitch' material.

11:42:00 AM We saw a ton of "felon" Hubbard senat signs along with a huge numbr of re-Winters for Senate signs. It is sad that the Democrats can't find a better candidate than a former felon convicted on corruption charges.

11:46:29 AM The funniest thing we saw this morning were the Ryan 4 Congress signs. They were hand spray painted. They scream "high school student council" campaign. Not a serious campaign for Congress. I'll have to post a picture when I get home.

11:53:18 AM I'll check back in as we get closer to the speech time.

Posted by elendil at 11:26 AM in Kentucky Politics

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Latest Polling Numbers: U.S. Senate

Rasmussen Reports released new polling data for the Kentucky U.S. Senate race. They show McConnell up 50 - 38 on Lunsford. McConnell has opened up a comfortable 12 point lead after earlier polls showed the race neck and neck.

I originally thought the race would be around 10 points. McConnell is running in a difficult environment, but Lunsford isn't exactly a stellar candidate. The last couple of polls have validated my original speculation. And it lends more weight to my belief that the earliest polling was an anomaly.

At this point, I think Lunsford is in trouble for a number of reasons.

His approval rating is 42 percent. He is going to have to find a way to move this number above 50. The problem is he is also going to have to go on the attack. When you do that, it is very difficult to improve your positive ratings.
McConnell's approval rating is at 55 percent. That puts McConnell in a position of strength as the campaign becomes competitive. He has more good will to lean against.
Obama is still behind in Kentucky and will probably lose Kentucky. So Lunsford can't look for any coat tails.
Lunsford is from Louisville. It is very difficult for politicians from Louisville to do well out in the state.
Lunsford's strong hold should be Louisville, but that is where he did the most damage as CEO of Vencor. There are a lot of people who worked for Vencor that really don't like him for what he did to the company. He left a lot of people with worthless stock. Heck I know two non political people that worked for Vencor and Lunsford's name is somewhere well below mud..
The national Democrats aren't making it easy on him. Their refusal to let any vote on expanding drilling for oil has put them on the wrong side of the most pressing problem facing voters today. A solution that voters are demanding in greater numbers every day.

While none of these points taken individually are impossible to overcome, combined they become are a huge wall to scale. And that is just to make the election close.

Posted by brians at 8:49 AM in Kentucky Politics

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