Sunday, 28 September 2008
Courier Journal's Bogus New US Senate Poll
The Courier Journal ran the headline yesterday that McConnell and Lunsford were in a dead heat. A truly stunning development if it were true. I wanted to see the poll internals to make sure it was a legitimate poll and to find out where the shift occurred. Interesting, the poll internals weren't available. We had a surprising headline with poll details to be released tomorrow. I thought it was a bit fishy that they would give the headline one day and not release the numbers till the next. Turns out I was right to be skeptical.
Check out the numbers by region in Kentucky
| Region | % of respondents |
| Louisville | 28% |
| Lexington | 17% |
| Northern KY | 11% |
| South Central KY | 7% |
| Eastern KY | 17% |
| Western KY | 20% |
| Region | McConnell vs Lunsford |
| Louisville | 39-54 |
| Lexington | 51-38 |
| Northern KY | 48-37 |
| South Central KY | 61-32 |
| Eastern KY | 40-46 |
| Western KY | 44-40 |
Imagine that. McConnell has huge leads in the under represented parts of the poll while Lunsford has a big lead in the over represent part of the state. No wonder the numbers are tied. If the poll was a bit more regionally balanced McConnell would enjoy at least a 4-6 point lead in the race.
Of course that wouldn't have had the same sensational headline as a "tied race". If you continue to delve into the numbers, you see the fundamentals still favor McConnell in the race. First look at his job approval ratings.
| Region | Job Approval |
| Louisville | 43% |
| Lexington | 62% |
| Northern KY | 59% |
| South Central KY | 53% |
| Eastern KY | 40% |
| Western KY | 52% |
He is above 50% in job approval in two thirds of the state. That is a solid number to have going into November. Let's look at the approval ratings of the two candidates side by side. And remember this is a poll that is biased towards Lunsford.
| Candidate | Approval | Disapproval |
| McConnell | 40% | 31% |
| Lunsford | 26% | 29% |
While McConnell's numbers are not stellar, Lunsford's numbers are abysmal. He has a higher disapproval rating than approval rating. It seems a bit far fetched for a candidate to win an election with such an imbalance. Remember that this is a poll that is weighted towards Lunsford.
The last week's financial crisis and financial bailout was most likely an event that had a negative impact on McConnell. As such we are seeing the race tighten. Most of the movement has come from Eastern Kentucky where Lunsford at one time trailed McConnell substantially. Even with the tightening, the race is not tied as the Courier breathlessly reports. Nope this was nothing more than a two day hit piece attempting to prop up a weak candidate. I wound't be surprised to see that gap widen again as the financial crisis moves to the back burner in the coming weeks.
