Friday, 24 October 2008
State Of The Kentucky Senate Race
« Kentucky US Senate Race Goes National | Main | McCain Holds Big Lead In Kentucky »
As we head into the final two weeks of the campaign, it is time to take stock of what we know about the Senate race. First, let's look at the polling numbers.
What the polls are showing, with the exception of Survey USA (which appears to be a slight outlier in Lunsford's numbers), is that the race has stabilized after a major shift towards Lunsford after the bailout vote. McConnell appears to be leading the race by about 4 points.
Here is what we can take from the polling:
| Poll | McConnell | Lunsford |
| Daily KOS Poll | 46 | 42 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 50 | 43 |
| Survey USA | 48 | 48 |
| Kentucky Herald Leader | 47 | 43 |
| Aggregate | 47.8 | 44 |
What the polls are showing, with the exception of Survey USA (which appears to be a slight outlier in Lunsford's numbers), is that the race has stabilized after a major shift towards Lunsford after the bailout vote. McConnell appears to be leading the race by about 4 points.
Here is what we can take from the polling:
- The numbers have settled after McConnell's vote for the bail out plan. It turns out the vote cost him around 5 to 10 points in the polls. I doubt their is any new circumstances in the final two weeks that will move the polls as much as that one vote did.
- McConnell is below 50 percent in the polling. Always dangerous territory.
- I think a slight lead in the polls bodes well for McConnell. He has a much better ground game in Kentucky. In fact, I think the organization is so lopsided that I expect McConnell to do better than the polls.
Posted by at 3:59 PM in Kentucky Politics
