Thursday, 30 October 2008
McConnell Changes Momentum In Campaign
We have two new polls out today. The Courier Journal Bluegrass Poll shows McConnell with a 5 point lead, 47 - 42. The Rasmussen Research group's poll shows McConnell with a 7 point lead 51-44. These results are not very surprising. Last week, I noticed that the polls had stabilized around 4 points. If anything these new polls tell us that McConnell may be expanding his lead.
I have long thought this race was more of a referendum on McConnell than some groundswell for Lunsford. Lunsford is not some loveable figure that people adore. It wouldn't take much to keep his positives down and negatives up. It seemed to me that beating Lunsford over the head with negative ads had diminishing returns.
At the time, I thought McConnell should start producing more ads that put McConnell is a positive light. Something that would push up his approval ratings. In a referendum election, I believed it would be the only way he could expand his lead. Team Mitch was ahead of me and had a long series of positive ads rolling out the door. Today is the first day were we have seen the results of the change in tactic. His poll numbers are inching upwards. He has stopped Lunsford's momemntum and swung it back in his favor heading into the final weekend.
At this point, I think things are looking good for Team Mitch. With a strong ground game next Tuesday, I suspect McConnell wins this race by 8 to 10 points.
I have long thought this race was more of a referendum on McConnell than some groundswell for Lunsford. Lunsford is not some loveable figure that people adore. It wouldn't take much to keep his positives down and negatives up. It seemed to me that beating Lunsford over the head with negative ads had diminishing returns.
At the time, I thought McConnell should start producing more ads that put McConnell is a positive light. Something that would push up his approval ratings. In a referendum election, I believed it would be the only way he could expand his lead. Team Mitch was ahead of me and had a long series of positive ads rolling out the door. Today is the first day were we have seen the results of the change in tactic. His poll numbers are inching upwards. He has stopped Lunsford's momemntum and swung it back in his favor heading into the final weekend.
At this point, I think things are looking good for Team Mitch. With a strong ground game next Tuesday, I suspect McConnell wins this race by 8 to 10 points.
Posted by at 11:45 PM in Kentucky Politics
