Monday, 3 November 2008

State Of The Presidential Race In Kentucky

The latest SurveyUSA poll shows that McCain enjoys a huge 16 point lead in Kentucky on the eve of the election. He enjoys leads of 20-30+ points across much of the state. The only reason the race is withing 20 points is that Obama leads by 9 in Louisville. These results make me proud to be a Kentuckian. It is good to know that at least my state isn't going to be responsible for the election of the socialist leader of the Democratic party. IF by some chance he happens to win tomorrow.

What else can we take from these numbers? It looks tough for Northup. She is going to have a hard time winning with the current state of O-basam which appears to be flourishing in Louisville. That is a shame. But! On the flip side, McCain's 30+ point lead in western Kentucky should have coat tails for Guthrie in his fight against Boswell. Therefore I predict that Northup will out perform polls but still lose tomorrow 53-47 and Guthrie will win 55-45.
Posted by brians at 11:45 PM in Kentucky Politics
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Kentucky Kurmudgeon Is A Tool

The Kentucky Kurmudgeon is either a fool or a tool of the Democrats in this state.  His latest article, tries to tell us that Lunsford will enjoy more "clout" in Washington than McConnell if elected.

Exhibits A and B for that argument are U.S. Reps. Ben Chandler and John Yarmuth, who both had more influence with their party leaders than normal for freshmen because they flipped Republican seats and helped retake the House for Democrats.

If Lunsford succeeds in doing a Tom Daschle number on McConnell, he can expect Democratic Senate leaders to greet his arrival in Washington like the return of the prodigal son.

McConnell’s argument also rests on the assumption that his fellow Republicans retain him as their leader. But it was on his watch that  Republican fortunes declined so much that he and several of his colleagues are now at risk.

When the head lemming takes the pack over the cliff and into the rough seas Republican senators expect to experience Tuesday, some of the survivors might start thinking about new leadership — understandably so.

Should that happen, McConnell would become one of the more irrelevant members of Congress, a rejected former leader sent to the back benches by members of his own minority party.

Senority? Minority leadership status that earns him a place at the table? Clout to bring home the bacon?

I am not sure where to begin with this nonsense. I can't believe he used Yarmuth! as an example of more clout. How has that bridge project advanced since Yarmuth! got elected? Northup brought in considerably more money to Louisville than Yarmuth! did. The election of Yarmuth! was a monetary disaster for the 3rd district. I am not sure what clout the Kurmudgeon has in mind when he wrote that bit.

So from that flawed reasoning, he makes the leap that the lowest ranking Senator in the Senate is going to have more clout than the minority leader. I am not sure what dream world he is living in with this statement. The minority leader has a heck of a lot say in almost everything in the Senate. The powers granted to the minority in the Senate rules will make him very relevant. Even with a smaller minority he will be a power player on almost all legislation that winds its way through the legislative process. Lunsford would have no where near that type of relevance.

The Kurmudgeon then goes on to insinuate that McConnell might get replaced as minority leader. Again he takes some leap in logic that defies reality. The Republicans knew going into this election that they were going to lose seats. I would be highly surprised if they blamed it on McConnell. All the Republican Senators know that McConnell has done an outstanding job as leader. He has consistently run rings around majority leader Reid's head. Making Sen Reid look like a bafoon many times with his mastery of parlimentary procedure. Republicans will need that type of leadership in the minority.

On top of that, I haven't even heard complaints about the job McConnell has done as minority leader from anyone in the senate. That would make the Kurmudgeon's  logic nothing short of wishful thinking. I doubt the writer of a column in a major media outlet is foolish enough to believe this gibersish. Therefore, I have to believe he is nothing more than a tool for Democrat talking points.


Posted by brians at 10:52 PM in Kentucky Politics
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Election Eve In Kentucky Senate Race

We head into election day tomorrow with two more polls showing McConnell with the lead. The last Survey USA poll shows McConnell extending his lead to 8 points, 53-45. The utlra-left DailyKos even shows McConnell with the lead 47-44. That means the last week of polling showed McConnell with around a 6 to 7 point lead in the race.

Elections are normally determined by the candidate with the higher approval rating winning. This race didn't follow this dynamic. Lunsford has continually out polled his approval ratings while McConnell under polled his. That was the tip to me that this race was more of a referendum on McConnell rather than a vote between two candidates.

It appears that both campaigns believed it as well. Especially as it was reflected by the actions of both campaigns in the closing days. Lunsford continued to hammer McConnell with disregard for the negative effect on his own approval rating. I think they realized it didn't matter. It only mattered how the electorate perceived McConnell. McConnell on the other hand switched from negative ads about Lunsford to more  positive ads that humanized him. The ads made McConnell a more palatable choice and has greatly contributed to his growing lead in the polls. I think it will be a big reason he wins tomorrow. I think his superior ground game across the commonwealth will cause him to out perform his poll numbers. I predict that McConnell willl win tomorrow 54-46. A closer race than it should have been, but a victory for McConnell none the less.
Posted by brians at 10:39 PM in Kentucky Politics
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