Tuesday, 4 November 2008

US Senate Election Night In Kentucky

7:45 PM - So far Lunsford is ahead by 4,000 votes with 28% reporting. The problem is it doesn't look good for him. 76% of Jefferson county and 56% of the 5th district have reported. The three McConnell areas - 1st, 2nd, and 4th all have less than 10% reporting.

8:03 PM - McConnell has retaken the lead by 3,000 votes with 33% reporting. District reporting numbers - 1st - 11%, 2nd - 20%, 3rd - 76%, 4th - 14%, 5th - 67%, 6th - 18%

The results are looking very positive for McConnell at this point.

Other races that look over: Whitfield in the 1st. Yarmuth! in the 3rd, Davis in the 4th, Rogers in the 5th, and Davis in the 6th. Basically there was no real surprise tonight.

8:15 PM - McConnell has extended his lead to 13,000 votes.  District reporting numbers - 1st - 16%, 2nd - 24%, 3rd - 81%, 4th - 27%, 5th - 68%, 6th - 41%

Looks like McConnell is going to win this race handily. Fox News is calling McConnell the winner.

The 2nd district has 24% reporting and Guthrie has opened up an 8 point lead. I'll have to take a closer look at this race to see who has reported.

8:30 PM - McConnell continues to pull away from Lunsford. He now leads by 27,000 votes with 50% of the votes recorded. District reporting numbers - 1st - 24%, 2nd - 30%, 3rd - 81%, 4th - 33%, 5th - 74%, 6th - 56%

Guthrie leads by 8,000 votes with 30% reporting. That does not include Davies County which is Boswell's home turf.

8:50 PM - McConnell is going to win re-election. He has a 32,000 vote lead with 59% of the vote reporting. I don't see how Lunxford at this point can close the gap. Most of the 3rd, 5th, and 6th districts have already reported.All that is left to count is solid McConnell country. The only question now is how big will McConnell's victory be.

So at this point all eyes turn to the 2nd district where Guthrie has extended his lead to 13,000 votes  / 10 point lead with 44% reporting.

9:10 PM  - With 69% of the vote in, Guthrie continues to lead by around 13,000 votes. Lunsford keeps hanging around McConnell now only trailing by 26,000 votes.

9:20 PM - Things are looking good for Guthrie. He has a 13,800 vote lead with 71.5% reporting. There are roughly 91,000 votes left to be counted. Boswell would have to win 58% of the remaining vote to pull the come from behind victory. McConnell continues to hold a 36,000 vote lead with 75% of the vote complete.

9:30 PM - McConnell has stretched his lead to 54,000 votes with 80% of the vote counted. Guthrie's lead has shrunk to 10,600 votes with about 72,000 votes remaining to be counted.

9:40 PM - McConnell has a 56,000 vote lead with roughly 350,000 votes remaining to be counted. Lunsford is going to have to win the rest of the vote by 58% if he is going to come back.An unlikely scenario at best. I think it is safe to say that McConnell will win re-election.

With 80% in Guthrie leads by 12,000 votes with around 65,000 votes left to be counted.  Boswell is going to have to win almost 60% of the remaining vote to mount a successful comeback.

9:55 PM - 87% reporting and Guthrie leads by 9,200 votes. Boswell is running out of votes left to be counted. There are roughly 47,000 votes left to be tallied.

10:10 PM - McConnell is pulling away from Lunsfrod enjoying a 77,000 vote lead with a little more than 130,000 votes left to be counted.Congratulations to Sen McConnell on winning re-election! We will need your leadership in the Senate in the coming years.

10:25 PM - GutrhieWins! Guthrie Wins! With 95.3% of the vote counted he has a 13,500 votre lead. With only 18,000 votes left to be counted, it is nearly impossible for Boswell to win. That finishes a solid day for Republicans in Kentucky. 

10:28 PM - It's official. With 99.6% of the vote, Guthrie leads by 5 points or 15,000 votes. McConnell's lead is 88,000 votes with only about 110,000 votes left to be counted.I think I am going to sign off here for the evening so I can do more productive things.

Posted by brians at 6:54 PM in Kentucky Politics
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Who Is Obama?

The most bizarre aspect of this election season in the success of Sen Obama. A guy who has done very little throughout his career. In fact no one can can point to anything that Obama has actually accomplished. Yet it seems that he has become a blank canvas. One in which people can project their hopes and desires. An example of this thinking is Larry Sabato. Last week Larry was speaking at the Filson Historical Society's Gertrude Polk Brown Lecture series. Here we have one of the supposed experts in election politics and he made this prediction on an Obama presidency.
Obama, as president, will be a moderate liberal who will focus on the economy and reach out to some Republicans, like Indiana Sen. Richard Lugar, in his appointments.

He predicted that liberal bloggers will be saying soon of Obama's presidency that he has betrayed the party.
I had to laugh when I read those comments. How does he know how Obama will lead as president? What evidence is available to suggest such a moderate presidency?

Obama has zero executive experience in office. He has no executive experience in business. He was no military experience. He has no relevant experience what-so-ever to be president of the United States. How can anyone tell how he will lead? I guess we can make assumptions based on his career.
  • He went to Harvard where he admits he sought after the most liberal professors
  • He became a community organizer in Chicago where he befriended former terrorist William Ayers. He was involved in the Annenberg project whose goal apparently was to provide radical liberal instruction to students in school.
  • He sought out the church he attended for the last 20 years. The church which was lead by a radical leftist preacher, Jeremiah Wright. A church which he took his kids every weekend.
  • In the state Senate he ducked most big issues by voting present.  He did vote for a number of left wing pet projects like infanticide and reduction of second amendment rights.
  • He never stood up to the corrupt Chicago political machine.
  • In his brief tenure as United States Senator he quickly obtained the most liberal voting record in the Senate.
  • He ran to the left of every major candidate in the the Democratic primary
  • He has attempted to sound more moderate in the general election. This is the only place where he has shown any moderation in his entire political career.
So how can anyone say he will govern as a moderate Democrat? The only time he has ever been moderate is during the general election season. He has no executive or even political experience where he has ever shown moderation. So how can one predict he will govern as a moderate?

The only argument that can be made in favor of moderate governance is that Obama only cares about aggrandizing as much power unto himself as possible. In that case he will stay in the middle to ensure re-election in four years.

Of course the flip side of that argument is the fact that power corrupts. It will make him even more arrogant than he already is. It will empower him to attempt doing whatever he wants. He knows the lapdog media will do nothing to challenge him. If anyone tries to stand up to him, he will try to destroy them. We have already seen evidence of this disturbing behaviour a number of times already. Joe the Plumber was destroyed by Obama supporters digging up dirt by illegally referencing government databases. In Missouri, Obama supporters in the AG office promised prosecution for defamation to anyone who criticized Obama. Obama kicked reporters from his plane who worked for newspapers that didn't endorse him.

When I look at his history, I see an unrepentant liberal who used Chicago style thuggery to silence those who are opposed to him. One that has no relevant experience for the office in which he aspires. I expect his lack of experience will make his administration a disaster. There is no way anyone can jump into that type of executive role without experience and expect to succeed. It just isn't possible.  What makes the prospect of his administration worse is the fact that he is a smug, arrogant liberal who thinks he can do whatever he wants. A dangerous combination that could be bad for this country.

But then again, maybe I am just projecting. But at least my projection is based upon the reality of what I have learned about Obama. At the end of the day, no one has any idea how he will govern. He just doesn't have any experience upon which to judge him. And that might be the biggest reason to vote against him today.

Posted by brians at 2:59 PM in National Politics
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Optimism

I am optimistic this election day.

I am optimistic that Republican leader in the senate, McConnell, will get re-elected as my senator. I am optimistic that the Republicans will hold at 44 seats in the senate. I am optimistic Guthrie will be my next congressman. I am optimistic that McCain will out perform the polls. I am optimistic that the presidential race will be much closer than the pundits in the drive by media are claiming it will be. I believe McCain has a descent shot to win tomorrow.

Regardless of the outcome tomorrow, I am optimistic about the future. Maybe not the short term future, but the long term future. If Obama wins we will have a tough 4 years of higher taxation, more economic stagnation, and a weaker presence in the world. But it will only last 4 years. Sometimes we have to revisit the Carter years to remember why we don't want to elect socialists to office.

From the ashes of Democratic rule, the phoenix will arise. Much like Ronald Reagan did in 1980. This time it will be either Sarah Palin or Bobby Jindal that will return us back to our country's roots. A future based in individual freedoms that were cherished by our founding fathers. America has a tradition of freedom. A tradition of independence. A tradition of religion. A tradition of resourcefulness. A tradition of productivity. I believe that whoever is elected president can't squash our countries foundational pillars. As such I believe that our best days are still ahead of us.

I believe in the American dream. That it can be obtained by Joe the Plumber, myself, or anyone else who works hard and dreams the dream.  I believe that we are the land of opporunity for anyone who applies him or herself. I believe we are and will continue to be, regardless of the natering nabobs of negativism, the shining city on the hill where everyone yearns to live.

Yes, I am optimistic about our future. 
Posted by brians at 5:24 AM in Announcements
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