Thursday, 30 July 2009

The Battle For U.S. Senate Begins.

The Lexington Herald makes a valid point that some conservatives are wary of Trey Grayson. The article is both tough and fair yet could easily divide the Republican base in the primary. While the story may have some validity and I'll address it in a minute, the article is nothing less than the opening salvo attacking the Republican front runner. Why else was the article written? I would say it is good reporting, but we haven't seen anything nearly so tough on the Democrats. Where is the article asking if Conway is too liberal to win in Kentucky? For some reason the tough pointed articles are always aimed at Republicans. Gee, I wonder why?

But let's address the reality of the article. I understand why conservatives would be nervous about Trey. He confesses to being a conservative, but is he? He has never held an elected position that would confirm or deny the question. He has been Secretary of State. A role that is more of an administrative position than a partisan one. Up to this point, Mr Grayson has not had to take a partisan position or vote on any tough issue.

Republicans know that a strong conservative candidate, like Bunning, can win and hold this seat. With that in mind, it would be very disappointing to nominate and elected a moderate Republican. I know Trey Grayson has months to convince everyone he is the next Bunning, but it will do little to tell us how he will actually vote. The true concern among conservatives is that they don't want to be sold a bill of good like in conservative South Carolina. Not too long ago Lindsey Graham promised to be a conservative when he ran to replace Strom Thurmond, but he turned out to be a very squishy moderate.  We don't want the same thing to happen here in Kentucky.

And we won't know if Trey will be more like the man he is trying to replace or more like Lindsey Graham of South Carolina until he actually begins casting votes in the Senate. That is what makes conservatives wary.

Posted by brians at 7:07 AM in Kentucky Politics
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Tuesday, 28 July 2009

Grayson In

It took all of 2 minutes for Grayson to throw his hat into the ring after Bunning decided not to seek re-election. I don't think it comes as a great shock that Bunning is stepping down. He has done little to raise the money he needs and finally faced reality. At the same time it doesn't surprise me that Grayson immediately threw his hat into the ring. It was the reason he formed an exploratory committee in the first place.

At this point, it is obvious (as it was two months ago) that Bunning was clearing the deck for Grayson to win the seat. By staying in the race as long as he did, Bunning allowed Grayson to get a huge head start in fund raising. Grayson is over half of million dollars ahead of his nearest challenger Rand Paul. At the minimum the financial lead establishes Grayson as the front runner. I wouldn't be surprised if his advantage keeps other serious contenders out of the fray. Of course some top candidates may still enter as a way to begin building a base for next year's gubernatorial election, but it would be difficult to catch Grayson. We shall see.

Regardless of who succeeds Bunning on the Republican side, the Democrats are pretty much screwed. Most of their hopes rested on facing a bumbling sitting Senator in the general. Instead they will get a well funded up and coming conservative candidate. One who is much less likely to make the political mistakes that plagued Bunning. One that will most likely have the backing of the McConnell machine.

On top of that the two Democratic candidates have serious flaws heading into this contest. Conway is a well funded liberal. But he is a liberal and will be facing a solid conservative candidate. An election he is unlikely to win in Kentucky. Mongiardo on the other hand has positioned himself as a more moderate Democrat but he is unable to run a coherent campaign. He would most likely be ground to dust by the McConnell machine in the fall.

At this point, I expect Grayson to be the nominee next fall. And unless he self destructs between now and then, I suspect he will be the next junior Senator from Kentucky.


Posted by brians at 9:39 PM in Kentucky Politics
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Bunning Out

The day was Bunning dropped his bid for re-election to the U.S. Senate was inevitable. The fact of the matter is he never seriously raised funs for the race. There was no way he compete with the pittance of money he had raised to this point. While he may have a point that Republican leaders hindered his chances of raising funds recently, they weren't hindering him during the last six years while he as Senator. If he was serious he would have been raising money throughtout the years he was Senator. He didn't do it. I just don't think he had the burning desire to get re-elected to the Senate and finally gave in to the reality of the situation. Plus, I think he cleared the decks for Grayson, but that is another story.

I believe Bunning will be remembered for one thing. He had an uncanny ability to NOT play the political game in D.C. His inability to be a political creature led to his foot in mouth disease that the left routinely castigated him. A disease that nearly saw him lose to Mongiardo six years ago. While it may have lead to some poor quips, it also forged him into a Senator who always followed his core beliefs. He never cared for making a deal or the horse trading that goes on in the legislator. He never cared what the media thought of him. A practice that lead to an openly hostile relationship with the media.

He only cared that he was consistently following the principles that guided him. As such, his clarity and common sense on the issues of the day were amazing. Just in the last few years we saw his precient insight on a number of occasion. For years,  he denounced the practices of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. He saw the coming housing bubble and was one of the few senators to try and stop it during the Bush years. He knew the "stimulus" package would not stimulate the economy and voted against it. Turned out he was right both times. Something the senior senator from Kentucky failed to see.

Personally, I want to thank Bunning for his service in the U.S. Senate. I thought he did an outstanding job fighting for conservative causes in the Senate. I wish him well in his future endeavors.

Posted by brians at 5:35 AM in Kentucky Politics
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Wednesday, 22 July 2009

Can Republicans Win The Louisville Mayor Race?

With all of the Democrats scrambling to take over for Mayor Abramson, I have to ask the question - can Republicans win the Louisville Mayor race? Unfortunately, the answer is not simple yes or no. I think the Republicans have a number of things going for them heading into next year's elections.
  1. The Democratic primary for mayor will be very ugly. A number of the candidates have massive egos and big checkbooks. A clash of epic proportions is bound to erupt. Will the negativity turn voters away from the eventual winner?
  2. It is going to be a huge Republican year nationally. The extreme liberal agenda emanating from Congress and the White House along with a sour economy will shift the tide strongly back to the Republicans just like 1994.
While it is nice to have momentum and a damaged opponent, their are questions that remain. Can the Republicans field two strong candidates in Jefferson county. My guess is the top prize and easier election to win will be the congressional race. Yarmuth! has pretty much voted party line on some of the worst ideas coming out of Congress. He will be more vulnerable next year than he was in a Democratic wave. Add in the fact that the Democratic nominee for mayor will be an unknown candidate, it is easy to see that the Congressional race will probably draw the top tier candidates. Do the Republicans have a second high quality candidate to run for Mayor?

With a U.S. Senate race and a Congressional race going on at the same time will the Republican candidate for mayor be able to raise the money necessary to be competitive with the Democratic nominee?

If the answer to both of these questions are yes, then I think the chances of a Republican winning the seat are slightly better than 50/50. Not bad for a county that consistently votes Democrat. If the answer to either of the questions is no then I think we will see another Democrat as mayor of Louisville.

Posted by brians at 9:23 PM in Louisville Politics
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Tuesday, 21 July 2009

Buying The Mayorship of Louisville

One day after Abramson announced he will be Beshear's Lt. Governor candidate in 2011 instead instead of seeking re-election next year and people are announcing their campaign to be the next mayor. Geesh. The body isn't even cold and the vultures are already circling. Well, I guess it HAS been a long time since Democrats could run for mayor. Below is my preliminary preview of the Democratic race.

Steve Fischer has already thrown his hat into the ring. If you recall, he was the candidate Lunsford crushed in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate in 2008. He ran an inept campaign then and wasted millions of his own dollars. I expect his ego is as large as his checkbook and he will funnel a bunch of money into the race for mayor. I doubt his campaign will be any better run, but with as much money as he will spend he has to be considered a contender.

The next on the list who will undoubtedly run is Councilman Jim King. If anyone has a larger ego than Steve Fischer it is Jim King. King also has a massive pocket book upon which to draw. Considering the amount of money he funneled into his daughter's race, I expect no less for his mayorial bid. Since he has actually won a political election and has connections to the party machinery, I would have to put him as the slight favorite to win the primary.

The question about King is how much of his personal baggage becomes public. There is a reason he could never get elected in his home neighborhood and had to move to a new district to win a seat on the council. It wouldn't surprise me if Karma comes back to bite King in the butt in this race.

The wild card entry in the race would be Metro Council President David Tandy. I don't know much about him, but I doubt he has deep pockets like the other two. He has been elected and has access to the party machinery. But will he be able to raise enough money to be competitive in the race. Especially with all of the money that is likely to be spent. It will be enteresting to see if he can benefit from the inevitable mud slinging that will occur between King and Fischer.

I'll update my preview as more candidates make a final decision to run. I expect to see more wealthy Louisvillians pop up to explore running for mayor. With as much personal money as we will see in this race, I have to ask the question. How much will it cost to buy the mayorship of Louisville?


Posted by brians at 9:21 PM in Louisville Politics
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Monday, 20 July 2009

Beshear / Abramson 2011

Well it is official, Abramson has signed up to be Beshear's running mate for 2011. Of course the thought of Abramson near the governor's mansion caused the CJ to swoon and immediately began the Abramson love fest. While some may claim this is a great move by Beshear, I am at a loss to understand their reasoning.

Yes he brings fund raising prowess. Maybe he brings in a few more votes in Jefferson County, but I don't think it will be many. First of all, the reason Abramson is taking the position is that his re-election for mayor is far from certain. In the last year, he has begun struggling under the weight of coruption from his long tenure. The Louisville housing departement had a recent fraud scandal. Abramson's buddy Cordish has been making a nice profit off the city. No one knows what the gaming authority is doing with city tax dollars and Abramson has continued his long standing fued with the FOP and firemen's unions. All of which have dragged Abramson's approval ratings to the lowest levels since he has been mayor.

With his popularity waning how is he going to bring in a vast number ofnew votes from Jefferson County? Let's assume he can bring in a lot of new votes. Those votes will be lost 10 times over from the rest of the state. Abramson is the face of Louisville. What part of the state doesn't resent the city of Louisville? Add on top of that the fact that he is pro-abortion, pro-gun control, pro-gay rights, and Jewish and you don't have a candidate people in rural Kentucky will be jumping to support. There is a reason that Abramson has never run for state wide office before now.

Personally, I think the pick of Abramson highlights Beshear's lack of political common sense and imagination. His campaign and administration have all been about expanded gambling. He has offered very little else to the state in the way of ideas an innovation.  When faced with the reality that it won't pass, he can't handle the truth. He just turns a blind eye and clamors on about changing their minds or having them beat next November. He apparently lacks the capability to see beyond the simple or to use his mind to find creative solutions to the state's problems.

I think the Abramson pick continues on this theme.He went with Abramson because he thought it would get him money and enough votes in Jefferson County to guarantee victory. He also knew it would make a big splash in the media. But, he is apparently blind to the baggage Abramson brings to the ticket. How Abramson's negatives present a real danger to Beshear's re-election chances.

Myself, I am not going to look a gift horse in the mouth.

Posted by brians at 9:24 PM in Kentucky Politics
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Headline of the Day

I was reading the CJ's web site today and came across the headline "City can survive without Abramson, leaders say" Was their any doubt about the city's survival without Abramson? Are we sure the sun would rise without Abramson in the mayor's office?
Louisville will survive, and perhaps thrive, without Mayor Jerry Abramson in office for a sixth term.
Whew! That is a relief. I didn't know what we would do without the mayor for life. Give me a break. This is the fawning adoration that the drive by media shines upon liberals that makes me ill. And those at the CJ wonder why their print circulation keeps diminishing?

Posted by brians at 9:24 PM in Kentucky Politics
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Friday, 17 July 2009

Two Pallete Cleaners For the Weekend.

Police Chief Denounce 'Cowardly' iPhone Users

An amusing story from last week.

Area drivers looking to outwit police speed traps and traffic
cameras are using an iPhone application and other global positioning
system devices that pinpoint the location of the cameras.

That has irked D.C. police chief Cathy Lanier, who promised her
officers would pick up their game to   counteract the devices, which
can also help drivers dodge sobriety checkpoints. 

"I think that's the whole point of this program," she told The Examiner. "It's designed to circumvent law enforcement -- law enforcement that is designed specifically to save lives."...

....Lanier said the technology is a "cowardly tactic" and "people who
overly rely on those and break the law anyway are going to get caught"
in one way or another.

So let me get this straight. Speed traps are meant to "save lives". I am glad I know that now. All along, I thought cops hidding behind stuff to trap speeders was just another way to fatten the purse of law enforcement. I am glad that is cleared up now.

But I like the fact that Lanier calls these people cowards. Mr Lanier, I do not think it means what you think it means. Nothing says "I am a coward" more than deliberately attempting to avoid law enforcement. Maybe he meant to use the word brazen. Or maybe the word he meant to use was frugal. Because this phone app is being used to save citizens the ridiculous sum of money that a speeding tickets costs.

Remember, speed doesn't kill. If it did we wouldn't be able to fly in airplanes. What kills is  speed diferentials.

Couple Acutions Wedding Sponsorship on EBay

Nothing says I love you more than free market capitalism at your wedding.
Stacey Libby said marrying the love of her life is like a fairy tale. But then, the Keene, N.H., woman saw the price tag — so she's decided to try to get a sponsor, asking for businesses to use eBay to bid on the rights to her day.

A business can bid to pay for all or part of the wedding, and the couple will let them advertise, WMUR reported. However, Libby will pick the colors. And she's not giving up control over the dress.
I joked about having sponsors at our wedding when my wife and I got married. At the time I thought and still do that weddings offer a number of opportunities for sponsorship. The wedding ceremony itself is not a place for sponsorship since it is a sacred ceremony. But why can't advertisements be sold on the back of programs? Heck most churches provide advertising in their weekly bulletins. Why not on the back of a wedding program? But for me the reception is jackpot for advertising opportunities.

Why not have Budweiser banners above the bar areas? Why not provide advertisement on the tables? Why not have the DJ announce advertisements during the reception? I am sure I could come up with even more places for advertising. With the cost of weddings now a days, I don't blame people for finding ways to lower the costs. Besides, nothing screams I am a capitalist more than having advertisements at your wedding.

Posted by brians at 12:04 PM in Cultural Events
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Thursday, 16 July 2009

Mongiardo Needs To Be Careful

Lt Gov Mongiardo raised $302,993 in the 2nd quarter. While that is a respectable amount, it is far less than his main rival for the Democratic nomination AG Jack Conway raised. Personally, I don't think Mongiardo has to match Conway dollar for dollar. But he must  stay in contact with him in fund raising. The next quarter will be key. Mongiardo can't afford to be out raised 4-1 again. Mongiardo can not afford to be out spent by more than 2-1. If he can keep it under that margin, then he can be competitive in this race. Especially the way he is positioning himself.

Mongiardo has become the anti-Louisville and conservative Democrat candidate in the race. Conway on the other hand is apparently going the liberal big city route. A move that will make it more difficult for him to win since most Democrats live in the rural parts of the state. Conway will need the extra money to make inroads out in the state and fight the liberal stigmatism that Mongiardo will attach to him. On the other hand, all Mongiardo needs to do is point out Conway's liberalism. A much easier task that will be much less expensive.

The best part of the Democratic nominating process is that it will undoubtedly turn very nasty next spring. A situation that will only help the Republican nominee in the fall.Don't believe me? Here is a taste of the already developing bitterness between the two camps.

Mark Riddle, a campaign strategist for Conway, said Mongiardo’s inability to bring in money shows that “he is not a viable candidate for Senate.”

“He couldn’t raise money in 2004 and lost to an inept U.S. Senator,” Riddle said....

....Kim Geveden, a Mongiardo campaign adviser, skewered Conway for going outside Kentucky to tap potential donors.

“It’s no surprise Jack Conway has significant financial support from his east-end Louisville neighbors and friends in New York and Los Angeles,” Geveden said. “Daniel doesn’t need to raise as much money as Jack because Daniel has a 20-point lead.”

It is going to be a fun campaign to watch next spring! I'll have to stock up on the popcorn over the winter to enjoy the show.

Posted by brians at 9:59 PM in Kentucky Politics
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Time For Sen Bunning To Step Down

I write this with a very heavy heart. I love Sen Bunning. He has been a fantastic senator for the state of Kentucky. But it is apparent that he is not trying to retain his seat.

Over the past three months, Kentucky Sen. Jim Bunning raised $302,466.96 for his re-election campaign, about half the amount that political protégé and potential Republican challenger Trey Grayson raised in the same time period.

Of the four top contenders for Bunning’s seat, the incumbent raised the least during the second quarter of the year. Democratic Attorney General Jack Conway says he pulled in $1.32 million, compared to $602,699 for Grayson, $302,993 for Democratic Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo and $302,466 for Bunning

When you are an incumbent senator and you don't pull in anywhere near what your opponents are raising then you are not seriously running for re-election. Heck when you pull in half of someone who isn't even running for office, then you have failed. If Sen Bunning isn't going to give 100% to his re-election, then he needs to step down now and let someone who is serious and committed to running and winning to take his place. We don't need another liberal voice in the U.S. Senate.

Posted by brians at 9:54 PM in Kentucky Politics
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Wednesday, 15 July 2009

KY's One Trick Pony Governor

Gov Beshear is not very imaginative. In fact he appears to be very simple minded. How else can you explain his obsession with gambling? His solution to everything is gaming. It is the only tool in his very tiny tool box. He has been beaten twice and still it is all he can think to do. Which leads us to the news of the day.
Kentucky Roll Call, a Frankfort-based newsletter about Kentucky politics, is reporting without attribution that Gov. Steve Beshear soon will appoint two Republican state senators to positions that would remove them from the legislature.

The newsletter says that Senate Majority Leader Dan Kelly of Springfield will be appointed to an unexpired term as a circuit court judge that will keep him on the bench through 2014 and Senate budget chairman Charlie Borders of Russell will become one of three commissioners on the state Public Service Commission.
Beshear said after his second defeat that we must change their minds or replace them. What better way to begin the process of replacing them than to appoint Republicans to the positions that will take them out of the Kentucky Senate. It will open up special elections that will allow Democrats a chance to pick up two seats in the Senate.

How completely transparent is this attempt to change the senate? These are the first appointments of the Beshear administration that weren't cronies. Maybe they ran out of cronies? I doubt it. They are just trying to change the field so they can pass gambling. Is it just me? Or is anyone else getting  tired of Beshear's never ending schemes to pass an expansion of gaming. The worst part is we still have two more years of this one trick pony show.

Update 7/16: Here is confirmation that the plan all along was to remove Republicans.
Democrats are hopeful that the special election is a step toward regaining control of the Senate, which they lost in 2000, and approving slot machines at horse racetracks. A slots bill died last month in the Senate budget committee, which Borders chaired.

Senate President David Williams, R-Burkesville, said Beshear is trying to make similar offers to other Republican senators. Specifically, he said that Senate Majority Leader Dan Kelly, R-Springfield, might leave the Senate if he is offered a judgeship.
Sad. I will laugh when Republicans retain any seats Beshear attempts to buy.

Posted by brians at 10:24 PM in Kentucky Politics
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Tuesday, 14 July 2009

Beshear's Pick For Lt. Gov - Who will it be?

When current Lt. Gov Mongiardo decided to run for the U.S. Senate in 2010, he effectively eliminated himself from being Beshear's running mate in 2011. Why? Because Beshear has to declare his running mate before he can start raising funds for the election. Beshear would have to wait until the end of next year to keep Mongiardo on the ticket and he isn't going to wait that long. So Beshear has to pick a new running mate for 2011. The question is who will it be?

The biggest political guessing game in the Capitol these days is the answer to this question: Who will be Gov. Steve Beshear’s running mate in a 2011 re-election bid?

The most frequently mentioned names are Louisville Mayor Jerry Abramson, state Auditor Crit Luallen, Education and Workforce Development Secretary Helen Mountjoy of Owensboro, and state Rep. Tommy Thompson of Owensboro, who ran for lieutenant governor in 1995.

Apparently the favorite is Louisville Mayor Jerry Abramson. Personally, I hope Beshear picks Abramson for two reasons. One, it would finally get rid of the "Mayor for Life" and allow some new blood into Louisville politics. Secondly and more importantly, it would be a horrible pick for Beshear.

Abramson brings all kinds of baggage to the race. First he is the Mayor of Louisville. While it might bring additional votes in Jefferson County, I imagine it will be more than offset by losses in the rest of the state which hates Louisville. He also brings problems with organized labor. Abramson has always screwed the police and firemen unions throughout his term. They hate him and will be glad to see him beaten.

Tony Harris, head of the Fraternal Order of Police Lodge 77 in Louisville, said he has “mixed feelings” about Abramson becoming lieutenant governor.

“I’d be excited to see him leave as mayor of Louisville but sorry for the state,” Harris said.

How well will his antipathy to unions play in rural Kentucky? In fact his shenanigans with unions are so bad that Bill Londrigan, president of Kentucky AFL-CIO, has come out and asked Beshear not to pick Abramson. I have little doubt that Abramson will be more of drag on Beshear's re-election than a boost. Especially in areas outside of Jefferson County.

I understand why Abramson wants to be Lt. Governor. He is running out of time and it provides him with a platform to launch a state wide gubernatorial campaign. Something that would be impossible as the Mayor of Louisville. But for the life of me, I have no idea why Beshear would select him.

I imagine Beshear's best possible pick would be State Auditor Crit Luallen. She has done her job. The only time you see her name in the paper is when some audit uncovers bad book keeping. She has not been an attention whore like AG Conway and has a solid record as auditor. She would bring strength to his ticket by allowing him to talk about how they can team together to trim the waste from state government.

On the other hand, I have no idea why Crit would run with Beshear. Why would she join a ticket when re-election is not a forgone conclussion. Beshear has not been all that effective as governor. He promised gambling and said he would get it. He hasn't even come close to delivering on that promise. He hasn't save hundreds of millions of dollars with his efficiency study and he has crammed the state government with all kind of his crony friends.

For me, the worst part of his administration has been his inflexibility. He hasn't tried to come up with any new ideas. All he does is re-hash gambling. He keeps swinging the same hammer when he needs to find a new tool. Which is why I believe he will be vulnerable to a well financed opponent. Why would Crit get on board such a campaign?

I just don't think Crit is going to jump on that train. For that matter, I don't think any of the top Democratic names outside of Abramson will come aboard. Which is why I think Beshear is forced to try and woo Abramson onto the ticket. If he doesn't get the mayor, then he will be force to settle on  some unkown entity like Secretary Helen Mountjoy or Rep. Tommy Thompson.

Posted by brians at 8:34 PM in Kentucky Politics
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Monday, 13 July 2009

Conway Has No Business Being Senator from Kentucky

Kentucky's AG, Jack Conway is running to be Kentucky's Senator in D.C. Kentucky is not an economic powerhouse. It is a state that struggles to keep pace with the national average.  One area where Kentucky shines is in cost of living. Kentuckians enjoy some of the cheapest living costs in the country. A big reason for the distinction is that Kentucky has some of the lowest electricity rates in the country. A fact that not only provides cheaper living costs for its residence, but is a major selling point for luring new companies to Kentucky. Cheap energy is vital to Kentucky's viability and even growth as a state.

Why is Kentucky's energy prices so low? Because Kentucky has a massive supply of coal. Coal is burned to create steam. The steam is used to turn turbines which generate electricity. The ready supply of coal makes it a cheap power source for the creation of electricity. In fact nearly 90% of Kentucky's electricity comes from coal.

Enter Cap-n-Trade legislation in D.C. Legislation that Conway favors. The purpose of Cap-n-Tax legislation is to make it very expensive to use carbon based fuels for the manufacturing of energy. That means it would jack up the cost of using coal for electricity generation.
E.On U.S., the parent company of LG&E and Kentucky Utilities, has said that residential customers in Kentucky would see their rates rise about $10.50 a month in three years and about $19 by 2020. Commercial customers could see their rates rise as much as 39 percent by 2020.
Such an increase would be devastating to Kentuckians. The poor would be hardest hit. Not only would it be a greater burden for residence of Kentucky, but it would eliminate the competitive advantage that Kentucky enjoys over other states. The legislation is so bad that West Virginia's liberal Senator, Robert Byrd, came out against it. West Virginia like Kentucky relies heavily on coal for energy production. Even Byrd realizes that the bill would incapacitate his state.

Yet, Conway gladly supports Cap-n-Trade. If he doesn't care about Kentucky enough to speak out against Cap-n-Tax, he has no business serving as a Senator from Kentucky. How can you support a bill that would so adversely effect Kentucky and have voters from Kentucky take you seriously as a candidate?

Posted by brians at 10:35 PM in Kentucky Politics
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Problem With Part Time Legislators

The latest "scandal" in Frankfort is the news that Sen Denton accepted a position for MCNA Dental Plans. She will serve as a link between dentists with Medicaid patients and MCNA which processes and pays Medicaid claims. What makes this a scandal is that Sen Denton serves as
chairwoman of the Senate Health and Welfare Committee. A committee that interacts with MCNA.

The watchdog groups claim this is a direct conflict of interest, but the Legislative Ethics Commission says she is doing nothing wrong. Is this a big story? No, because Sen Denton is not breaking any laws or ethics. Her working for MCNA is not much different from Rep Moberly  working on the budget committee in the house and serving as a top administrator at Eastern Kentucky University.

This is the problem with part time legislators. They have jobs in the real world. Is it surprising that they have jobs in the real world that interact with state government. It would be hard not to have such a conflict. There are three solutions to the problem. One is to make legislators full time jobs. Heaven forbid we do that. We don't need busy bodies working full time making new laws.

A second solution would be to pass a law forbiding legislators from surving on committees within the field they work or have influence with their employer. On the surface this would seem like a great idea. It would eliminate the potential for conflicts. But at the same time would eliminate people from serving in an area where they have expertise. As horrible as most legislation that comes out of legislators, do we really want to dumb down the comittees by remove people that have real experience in the field? Seems like a way to introduce even worse laws than we get now.

The best solution in my opinion is to do nothing about it and watch legislators with potential conflicts. If Denton or Moberly favor their employer then they should have ethics charges brought against them and pressured to step down.  Until then, I think we should let it go and see what happens.

Posted by brians at 10:03 PM in Kentucky Politics
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Thursday, 9 July 2009

KY Media Fails To Read The Proper Tea Leaves

Joe Arnold from WHAS11 has a blog post on how the GOP will pay a price for their actions in the 2009 regular and special session. Here is his logic.
By making enemies out of special interests with very deep pockets, Senate Republicans might find themselves on the defensive in several races that could flip control of the State Senate to Democrats. With virtually no chance that Republicans will win the state House, that would put Democrats in full control of the redistricting process.
He believes that Republicans angered the bourbon industry and the horse racing industry and thus will be on the defensive in the 2010 elections. First off, I don't know why the bourbon industry would be targeting the Republicans when it was the Democratic party that made the push for higher taxes in the first place. The only worry Republicans have on this front is voting for the tax increase and not retribution from the bourbon industry.

Secondly, does anyone believe that the horse industry is going to be that effective in beating Republicans? Most of the Republican Senators come from rural districts whose residents are against gambling. I would have to think that the rural Democrats should have more to fear from voting for gambling than the few Republicans from urban areas who voted against it. The axes swings both ways on this issue.

While these issues may play a role in statewide elections, I believe Mr Arnold is missing the 10,000lb gorilla standing in the room. The fact that 2010 should be a fantastic year for Republicans. Remember, Kentucky is a state that voted solidly against Obama. Most Kentuckians are most likely not happy with porkulus, cap n trade, and socialized health care. All of which are being pushed by Democrats in DC. I suspect the backlash in Kentucky could prove severe. It wouldn't surprise me if 2010 is a replay of 1994. I know Yarmuth! won on the  Democratic swing in 2006 and I am believe he very well could be taken out by the conservative wave coming next year. I have to think Chandler could be in danger if he faces a well funded opponent.

These top of the ticket races will have a much greater affect on the down ballot races than the few issues the Mr Arnold points out in his post. That is the reality of politics. I am pretty confident that the Kentucky Senate will be firmly in the hands of Republicans come 2011. I don't think they have much to fear as Joe would like us to believe.

Posted by brians at 3:44 PM in Kentucky Politics
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Wednesday, 8 July 2009

Time For Bunning To Decide

I am a great admirer of Sen Jim Bunning. I think he has been an awesome Senator for Kentucky. But at some point, he has to go all in on running for re-election or get out of the race. He won't win re-election without trying. And right now it looks like he isn't even trying.
U.S. Sen. Jim Bunning acknowledged Tuesday that his campaign probably won't match Secretary of State Trey Grayson's fund-raising for the second quarter of the year, but he vowed to stay in the 2010 race for U.S. Senate regardless.
Ok, that is pathetic. Trey Grayson isn't even in the race and he was able to out raise Sen Bunning. I don't believe Bunning has to outraise his Democratic opponent, but he must be in the same ballpark. If Bunning can't compete financially then he will lose the election regardless of how strong Republican winds will be blowing. At the end of June, it looks like Conway has raised $1.35 million dollars. That puts Bunning at a 2-1 funding disadvantage right now. 4-3 or 5-4 are competitive ratios, 2-1 is not. At this point, Bunning needs to either take the plunge or get off the crapper. He has to get in the game full time or get out of the way and let Trey run in his place. Secretary Greyson's impressive ability to raise over 600k in the first quarter as a non-candidate shows he has the political backing necessary to make a succesful run.

The time for a decsion is at hand. This seat is too important to lose. Espeically in a state as red as Kentucky.

Posted by brians at 2:38 PM in Kentucky Politics
Responses (3)

Tuesday, 7 July 2009

Fear Mongering

Do you want to know what fear mongering looks like? Stumbo provides us with a front row viewing.

A racetrack owner, presumably bankrolled with casino revenue, puts up a $5 million purse for a race on the same day as the Kentucky Derby.

Would it lure the country's best horses away from the Derby's $2million purse and dilute its reputation as America's signature horse race?

That's the scenario House Speaker Greg Stumbo, D-Prestonsburg, raised recently as he summed up Kentucky's latest failed effort to add slot machines to its racetracks.

"We would be foolish to believe that no one would ever take shots against us," Churchill Downs spokesman Kevin Flanery said in response to Stumbo's hypothetical scenario. "The point is that we can't take for granted the position of Kentucky's thoroughbred industry as it relates to other states, and we can't take for granted the position of the Derby as it relates to other races."

Wow. The ultimate in fear mongering. Some other track is going to take the Derby away from Kentucky because they have expanded gaming. That is just not going to happen. The Kentucky Derby is THE race in horse racing. It is the equivalent of the Open of golf. It is one the major races in the horse industry. If someone decided to have a golf tournament the same week as the U.S. Open in golf with a purse 10 times the size of the Open do you think any of the top players would go?

No. Because golfers are remembered for winning major tournaments and not a lot of money. Secondly, they already have a lot of money and don't need to big paycheck. They would rather have the prestige of winning the major tournament.

The same principle applies to horse racing. Do you want a Kentucky Derby trophy on your mantle or do you want Joe's Big Money race trophy? If you are in horse racing, the answer is a no brainer. The Kentucky Derby is one of the major races. Nothing is going to take that away from Churchill Downs. Secondly, the people in the industry already have money. They wouldn't be in the thoroughbred industry without have a shload of it. So there is no way a few extra million dollars would entice the top trainers and owners away. The prestige is much more important than money.

Stumbo, by floating this turd, is doing nothing but fear mongering on the topic of slots at tracks. He hasn't been able to gain any traction of his unconstitutional bill and is now taking absurd arguments to instill even more fear in hopes of turning votes. What is amazing is that the Courier Journal is facilitating this idiocy by running the story on the front page. Especially a story that is nothing but conjecture. But then again, I am never surprised with how low the local media will go to support their pet projects.

Posted by brians at 8:04 AM in Kentucky Politics
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Saturday, 4 July 2009

Meaning Of Independence Day To Me

233 years ago our fore fathers cared enough about liberty to shake off the yolk of tyranny. They believed enough in the cause of freedom that they would give up their lives to ensure a life of autonomy. On this Independence Day, We must remember that yearning for freedom. We must recall the battles of our founders as we battle our government's slow drift towards statism.

Today we are told we must give more for the greater good. We need universal health care. We need to save the environment with cap n trade. We need to put more money into education. We need to make sure people eat the right things. And every year we are asked to give more to fund these "good" causes. Every year our forced servitude to pay for these efforts takes longer and longer.

There is another word for forced servitude. It is called slavery. We are only given one life to live and it should be ours to live as we see fit. That is the meaning of freedom. It is the true pursuit of liberty. It is the spirit that our forefathers captured when the wrote the Declaration of Independence in 1776.
We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty, and the pursuit of Happiness.
You can feel the yearning for freedom in those words. It is obvious these men wanted nothing less than a life of self determination. Anything else they believed was just a form of despotism. We must remember that above all else on this Independence Day. So when people come to us and say that we must sacrifice for the common good, we can tell them no. We can tell them that we will not travel down the road to slavery. We will not be a slave to the common good. We have one life to live and we are going to live it the way we want and not the way they think it should be.

I value my life. I have one life to live and I wish to live it how I see fit. I can only do that so long as I am a free man. Do you value your life? If you do, then join me on this Fourth of July. Let's celebrate the freedoms we enjoy. Let's celebrate the great principles upon which this nation was founded. Let's celebrate life. And then on July 5 let's band together. Let's join in the common cause of freedom. Let's fight back against the creeping statism. Let's roll back the tyrannical nature of our government and ensure freedom for ourselves and our children. Otherwise our celebration today will be meaningless.


Posted by brians at 1:07 PM in Political Issues
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Thursday, 2 July 2009

Final Tidbits From The Special Session

The End For Horse Racing?

All the time leading up to the session and throughout the session we were inundated with pleas to save the horse industry. If we didn't pass slots then the racetracks would just disappear from Kentucky. In fact, the situation was so dire that Ellis Park owner Rob Geary said that he have to shut down his track at the end of the year. Since slots didn't pass I guess Ellis Park will be closing at the end of the year. Well, not so fast.
Ellis Park owner Ron Geary left open the possibility Wednesday that the western Kentucky track could remain open for racing in 2010, although he called it a "longshot."
At first there was no way it could survive, and now it may not close after all. It must be a miracle. Either that or a case of chicken little. I am going to vote for the latter.


Beshear on Winning Friends and Influencing People

After losing his slots initiative in the special session, one would think that Beshear would try to reach out and find some common ground to work with to try and reach some kind of compromise. Especially if the horse industry is really in dire trouble he claims. Here is the framework for how he plans on working with Republicans in the Senate.
We’ve got to do one of two things, and I’ll take either one of them. We’ve either got to change some of the senators’ minds, or we’ve got to change some of the senators.” - Gov. Beshear.
Wow, Beshear is magnanimous and a true bipartisan. Either the Replicans in the senate must agree with him or he is going to work to see them beaten. Nothing like an ultimatum to win himself friends in the Republican controlled senate. With Beshear's attitude, I doubt he will find a very friendly Senate come January's session.


Kathy Stein Wants Kentuckians To Salute Barbaric Baby Killer

Kathy Stein isn't my favorite senator. She is by far the most liberal senator in Kentucky. But their is no excuse for her resolution to adjourn the senate.

The one Senate resolution, whose chief sponsor was Sen. Kathy Stein, D-Lexington, that wasn't approved would have adjourned the Senate “in loving memory and honor of Dr. George Tiller.”

Tiller was the abortion doctor who was shot and killed May 31 in Wichita, Kansas, as he was guiding people to their seats at the Reformation Lutheran Church.

How despicable is it to get the Kentucky legislator to honor the life work of abortionist Dr. Tiller? While I don't think the doctor should have been murdered, I don't think Kentucky  should be honoring someone whose sole occupation was the eradication of the unborn. This resolution is sick and I am glad to see it was defeated.

Posted by brians at 9:52 PM in Kentucky Politics
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Wednesday, 1 July 2009

Another Brilliant Government Idea

I think Budweiser should make a real men of genius commercial about the members of the National Surface Transportation Infrastructure Financing Commission. They deserve it for coming up with a by-the-mile road tax.
The year is 2020 and the gasoline tax is history. In its place you get a monthly tax bill based on each mile you drove — tracked by a Global Positioning System device in your car and uploaded to a billing center.....

Besides the technological advances making such a tax possible, the idea is getting a hard push from a growing number of transportation experts and officials. That is because the traditional by-the-gallon fuel tax, struggling to keep up with road building and maintenance demands, could fall even farther behind as vehicles' gas mileage rises and more alternative-fuel vehicles come on line.

The idea of shifting to a by-the-mile tax has been discussed for years, but it now appears to be getting more serious attention. A federal commission, after a two-year study, concluded earlier this year that the road tax was the "best path forward" to keep revenues flowing to highway and transportation projects, and could be an important new tool to help manage traffic and relieve congestion.
This idea is stupid on many many many levels. First off, liberals always tell us how greedy corporations are. Well, it looks like government can be just as greedy if not more so.  What? They can't handle the fact that the gasoline tax isn't bringing enough "revenue". They can't take in less money. Heaven forbid. No they have to continue finding new ways to tax the living crap out of people.

Secondly, the tax would be horribly repressive to those in rural America. Those not living in a metropolitan environment don't have the luxury of not driving like their city brethren. They are going to be paying an inordinately unfair amount of the taxes from this scheme. If the roads are going to be used by everyone then everyone should pay an equal amount to use them.

Third and most importantly, who in the hell in their right mind would allow the federal government to put a GPS system in their car. Especially one  that the government has access to? It would essentially provide the government with the ability to track you at all times. Personally I find the concept a bit frightening. Especially if you care anything at all about privacy. Not much privacy when the government can check to see where you drove to last weekend.

The best quote from these real men of genius.
"If you're committed to the system being improved then it was a no-brainer," he said.
How about no. Why don't we just scrap the system of taxation and come up with a new one. One that doesn't destroy the privacy of all Americans. This is the U.S. and not an Orwellian animal farm .

Posted by brians at 9:56 PM in Political Issues
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The Effects of Artificially Raising Wages

I remember when the plea was made to raise the minimum wage. Those on the other side of the political spectrum wailed about how devastating it was for the minimum wage to be so low. They claimed that no one would be able to live off the wage. At the time, I said it was a horrible idea that will limit employment opportunities and cause stores to cut back.

Well we enter year 2 of the plan and the minimum wage is set to increase to $7.25 an hour today.  In case anyone noticed, the economy is in a recession which means the problems associated with artificial wage inflation will be exacerbated. Case in point.

Nikki Duvall can't work up a lot of enthusiasm about the prospect of Kentucky's minimum wage increasing to $7.25 an hour Wednesday.

She's among the 10 percent in Jefferson County who want a job, but can't find one, so, "Right now I'd settle for anything," said Duvall, 26, who lacks a high school diploma and recently applied for four different jobs at Louisville fast-food restaurants. She lost her most recent job three months ago at Meijer.

Here is someone who needs a minimum wage job. It's amazing how quick she realized that the rate increase will further hurt her chances of finding a job.  And for those that do have the jobs, they will likely see a decreases in the number of hours they work.
At Long John Silver's fast-food restaurants, the higher wage probably will be offset partly by working employees fewer hours, said Whayne Hougland, executive director of a group that represents the chain's franchisees. . Hougland said there aren't many other options, and raising menu prices would be impossible while competitors are already discounting heavily.
It is simple economics. A company can only afford to spend so much money on wages. The amount is fairly fixed. Thus when the costs of wages are artificially inflated the company must do something. They really only have three options. They can increase their sales, increase prices, or cut back on employees. In a down economy, neither the increased sales nor increasing prices are viable. Therefore the only thing to do is cut back on employees. This will take the form of lay-offs or cutting back on available hours for current employees. That means less money for employees. The exact opposite of what the wage increase was supposed to bring. On top of that, the wage increase is chocking off the availability of these low wage jobs. Making it harder for people who desperately need a job to find one.

It's a shame the legislators who voted for these increases didn't understand the basic economics of their scheme. Now many will suffer the ill effects of their willful ignorance. It really is sad.

Posted by brians at 4:04 PM in Kentucky Politics
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