Wednesday, 22 July 2009

Can Republicans Win The Louisville Mayor Race?

With all of the Democrats scrambling to take over for Mayor Abramson, I have to ask the question - can Republicans win the Louisville Mayor race? Unfortunately, the answer is not simple yes or no. I think the Republicans have a number of things going for them heading into next year's elections.

The Democratic primary for mayor will be very ugly. A number of the candidates have massive egos and big checkbooks. A clash of epic proportions is bound to erupt. Will the negativity turn voters away from the eventual winner?
It is going to be a huge Republican year nationally. The extreme liberal agenda emanating from Congress and the White House along with a sour economy will shift the tide strongly back to the Republicans just like 1994.

While it is nice to have momentum and a damaged opponent, their are questions that remain. Can the Republicans field two strong candidates in Jefferson county. My guess is the top prize and easier election to win will be the congressional race. Yarmuth! has pretty much voted party line on some of the worst ideas coming out of Congress. He will be more vulnerable next year than he was in a Democratic wave. Add in the fact that the Democratic nominee for mayor will be an unknown candidate, it is easy to see that the Congressional race will probably draw the top tier candidates. Do the Republicans have a second high quality candidate to run for Mayor?

With a U.S. Senate race and a Congressional race going on at the same time will the Republican candidate for mayor be able to raise the money necessary to be competitive with the Democratic nominee?

If the answer to both of these questions are yes, then I think the chances of a Republican winning the seat are slightly better than 50/50. Not bad for a county that consistently votes Democrat. If the answer to either of the questions is no then I think we will see another Democrat as mayor of Louisville.