Thursday, 20 August 2009
KY US Senate Polling
The first round of polling for the U.S. Senate Seat to replace Jim Bunning has surfaced. What strikes me when looking at the numbers is how weak the name ID of the state wide Constitutional office holders. One would think that winning a state wide office would provide a strong starting point for all of these candidates. But neither Grayson, Conway, nor Mongiardo could pull a number greater than 40% in the polls. On top of that both the Democratic primary and the Republican primaries have around 15% undecided voters. I think these numbers illustrates what a crap shoot it is to win one of the "not Governor" state wide elections. Something I have long suspected.
Red Numbers
The polls shows Trey Grayson with an 11 point lead over Rand Paul. These numbers don't tell us much about the race since 30% of those polled selected "other" or are "undecided". What it does tell us is that both candidates have room to expand their base. What I see from the numbers is that Paul has a much steeper hill to climb. Let me explain.
Paul's strength when looking at the cross tabs is with young people age 18-34. It is the only section where he holds a commanding lead in the poll. Amoung this age group he holds a 30 point lead over Grayson. Paul trails Grayson in all of the other age groups by at least 15 points. What that tells me is that Paul has captured the most energetic, but least likely to vote in a primary age group. While that will give him an "army" of young volunteers, it won't translate to victory at the ballot box. He is going to have to erase Grayson's significant lead within the other age groups.
This is where I think Rand Paul will run into two real problems. First, I think he will be outspent by Trey Grayson. Grayson has access to more money through his connections to Bunning and McConnell than Rand does. While money is not the end all determiner in who wins elections, it does mean that Grayson will be able to better communicate with the voters in the state. Which to me leads to Rand's biggest problem. Grayson doesn't have a voting record.
Rand Paul is hoping to win the primary as the "true" conservative candidate in the race. While he may actually be the most conservative candidate, he is going to have a difficult time proving it. Grayson has a blank slate with which to start the race. All he has to do is be pro-2nd ammendment, pro-life, and oppose the Obama administrations attempts to make the U.S. a statist country and he will have fairly strong conservative credentials for the election. So the question I keep asking myself is how will Rand be able to differentiate himself from Trey? I think it will be very difficult. Especially when he is likely to be outspent.
Blue Numbers
The Democratic primary is shaping up to be the race that Mongiardo wants, a battle between the rural and urban parts of the state. Looking at the cross tabs, the only places where Conway enjoys major support is the urban parts of the state. In fact Conway leads in Louisville 46% to 29% but trails in the rest of the state 44% - 23%. The only surprising number in the cross tabs is the fact that Mongiardo is actually doing better with the more liberal elements within the party.
I have no explanation for why these numbers are the exact opposite of what I would suspect in a rural/urban political battle. What these numbers suggest is that this is still a toss up election where neither candidate holding a significant lead in the polls. I think it will remain tight as long as Mongiardo continues to get the campaign he wants. The challenge for Conway will be to use his superior money position to break down Mongiardo's stranglehold on the rural parts of the state. Mongiardio on the other hand has to raise enough money to hold onto his base and hope to win a tight election.
Red vs Blue
When looking at the potential match ups between Grayson and Conway/Mongiardo, Grayson already enjoys a 6-7 point lead. A nice lead to have at this early in the election cycle. The reality is next year is going to be a good year for Republicans. The growing discomfort with the direction liberal Democrats are leading the country will all but ensure it. Throw in a nasty Democratic primary and you have all the ingredients for an easy win for the Republicans next November.
Red Numbers
The polls shows Trey Grayson with an 11 point lead over Rand Paul. These numbers don't tell us much about the race since 30% of those polled selected "other" or are "undecided". What it does tell us is that both candidates have room to expand their base. What I see from the numbers is that Paul has a much steeper hill to climb. Let me explain.
Paul's strength when looking at the cross tabs is with young people age 18-34. It is the only section where he holds a commanding lead in the poll. Amoung this age group he holds a 30 point lead over Grayson. Paul trails Grayson in all of the other age groups by at least 15 points. What that tells me is that Paul has captured the most energetic, but least likely to vote in a primary age group. While that will give him an "army" of young volunteers, it won't translate to victory at the ballot box. He is going to have to erase Grayson's significant lead within the other age groups.
This is where I think Rand Paul will run into two real problems. First, I think he will be outspent by Trey Grayson. Grayson has access to more money through his connections to Bunning and McConnell than Rand does. While money is not the end all determiner in who wins elections, it does mean that Grayson will be able to better communicate with the voters in the state. Which to me leads to Rand's biggest problem. Grayson doesn't have a voting record.
Rand Paul is hoping to win the primary as the "true" conservative candidate in the race. While he may actually be the most conservative candidate, he is going to have a difficult time proving it. Grayson has a blank slate with which to start the race. All he has to do is be pro-2nd ammendment, pro-life, and oppose the Obama administrations attempts to make the U.S. a statist country and he will have fairly strong conservative credentials for the election. So the question I keep asking myself is how will Rand be able to differentiate himself from Trey? I think it will be very difficult. Especially when he is likely to be outspent.
Blue Numbers
The Democratic primary is shaping up to be the race that Mongiardo wants, a battle between the rural and urban parts of the state. Looking at the cross tabs, the only places where Conway enjoys major support is the urban parts of the state. In fact Conway leads in Louisville 46% to 29% but trails in the rest of the state 44% - 23%. The only surprising number in the cross tabs is the fact that Mongiardo is actually doing better with the more liberal elements within the party.
| Conservative | Moderate | Liberal | |
| Mongiardo | 30% | 43% | 41% |
| Conway | 26% | 34% | 27% |
I have no explanation for why these numbers are the exact opposite of what I would suspect in a rural/urban political battle. What these numbers suggest is that this is still a toss up election where neither candidate holding a significant lead in the polls. I think it will remain tight as long as Mongiardo continues to get the campaign he wants. The challenge for Conway will be to use his superior money position to break down Mongiardo's stranglehold on the rural parts of the state. Mongiardio on the other hand has to raise enough money to hold onto his base and hope to win a tight election.
Red vs Blue
When looking at the potential match ups between Grayson and Conway/Mongiardo, Grayson already enjoys a 6-7 point lead. A nice lead to have at this early in the election cycle. The reality is next year is going to be a good year for Republicans. The growing discomfort with the direction liberal Democrats are leading the country will all but ensure it. Throw in a nasty Democratic primary and you have all the ingredients for an easy win for the Republicans next November.
Posted by at 11:03 PM in Kentucky Politics
