Wednesday, 26 August 2009

Beshear Finally Wins One - Kinda

The special election yesterday was close as Democrat Webb eeked out a win to fill retiring Republican Charlie Borders senate seat. A win that closes the gap between Democrats and Republicans in the senate to 20-17 (Really 21-17 when you include the independent who is basically a Republican). Besides the candidates themselves who were the winners and losers Tuesday.

Big Winners

Charlie Borders. He got to turn his senate seat into a $110,000+ job. Not bad way to cash in on your electorial success.
Dan Kelley and any other Republican senator who is looking for a cushy job. If anything Beshear is very simple minded and tries to use the same hammer over and over again. Now that something he has done has finally worked, I expect he will try it again and again until it fails miserably. Therefore look to see Sen Kelley get his judgeship and then Beshear searching for more jobs to give Republican senators.

Moderate Winners

Democratic Party. They get to crow about a win over the Republicans in the Senate. Even though they pulled out all of the stops and still only managed to get 48% of the vote, they won. Basically, they get a few days of good PR, but the makeup of the Senate is not going to change. The Republicans will likely do very well next November now that the political winds are changing.
Gov Beshear. He finally gets a win even if it is by the slimest of margins. He would be a big winner except for two problems. He went all out for Webb and she still only managed 48% of the vote. Not exactly a ringing endorsement. Secondly, Webb may have won but she also promised to vote against expanded gambling (even though she already voted to expand gambling in the state). So how does her victory help him pass his signature issue of gambling? It doesn't which makes this win more symbolic than meaningful

Moderate Losers

David Williams - He loses a seat in the Senate. But what does it change? Republicans still hold the majority and probably will for the forseable future.
Republican Party - They took a loss at a time when Republicans should have all the momentum. They basically couldn't put together an effective organization to match the Democratic effort. But then the Kentucky Republican party has never been good at the ground game.

Big Losers

Gov Beshear narowly avoided this honor with the win. But looking at the results it is hard to find a "big loser" in this special election. The reality is electing a conservative Democrat didn't radically change the makeup of the Senate.