Thursday, 8 October 2009

KY U.S. Senate Poll Numbers

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Earlier this week, Rasmussen release a poll on the state of the Kentucky U.S. Senate race. I was hoping for a poll that would tell us where the major candidates stood in their primary battles. Instead we were treated to a series of matchups between the top candidates from each party. We got the following results.

Candidate	%
Trey Grayson	40
Jack Conway	40

Candidate	%
Trey Grayson	44
Daniel Mongiardo	37

Candidate	%
Rand Paul	38
Jack Conway	42

Candidate	%
Rand Paul	43
Daniel Mongiardo	38

Two things surprised me by the poll. First, I was surprised by how poorly the Democrats polled against Rand Paul. Both Democrats have enjoyed a fairly high profile the last couple of years. Paul on the other hand is new to state politics and has very little name ID within the state. Yet with all those disadvantages he only trails Conway by 4 points and actually leads Mongiardo. This must be disheartening for the Democratic candidates. They have enjoyed favorable coverage in the media and are struggling against what is basically a "generic" Republican opponent.

Secondly, I was a bit surprised with how poorly Mongiardo polled. He couldn't get over 40% and he is the current Lt. Governor. That doesn't bode well for his hopes.

What should one take from the polls where none of the candidate did better than 44% nor worse than 37%? It tells me that the base for candidates in each party is around 40% and they will be fighting for the remaining 20% next fall. Not much else can be garnered from a poll featuring hypothetical so far in advance. Personally, I think it bodes well for Republicans that they are already tied with Democrats while being out registered close to 2 to 1.