Tuesday, 22 December 2009
The Silent Majority Begins To Awaken
That leads us to the second problem. They don't have the money to raise name identification. Name id is the primary component necessary to win a primary. If people don't know who you are they aren't likely to vote for you. It is the primary reason incumbents get reelected in such large numbers. Unless a candidate is independently wealthy and has money to buy communications with the electorate to tell them who they are, they can't win.
Newbie candidates also have problems with personal baggage. It is the first time that their history will be reviewed in great detail. They don't have previous electoral wins to damper the effects. Being their first race, they generally have problems honing their message. It takes them awhile to figure it out which causes them to end up being wishy-washy on issues that opponents can exploit.
They also suffer from not having an experienced campaign team. A veteran team that has been in the war during previous election conflicts. Instead they have either a mercenary campaign team or an amateur untested staff. Neither is ideal when trying to put together all of the pieces necessary on election day to win a state wide election.
Tom Owens and Bruce Lunsford are examples of candidates that have tried this route and have failed spectacularly. These guys were independently wealthy, but couldn't put it together. Every election is filled with candidates who didn't have any money and get creamed. Heather Ryan in the 1st Congressional district is a perfect example.
Enter Rand Paul. Normally, he would be a candidate who, like Heather Ryan, gets 5 percent of the vote and no one knows who he/she is. What makes him different is his dad. His dad, having run for the GOP president, has amassed a huge mailing list of donors across the U.S.. Rand Paul has been able to tap into that money source to generate the funds necessary to run a serious campaign. He has the resources necessary to generate name id clearing a major hurdle necessary to win an election.
The only question is would his campaign avoid the implosion of other campaigns? They have a good start at it. First they got owned by Grayson for flip flopping on Gitmo. Now they have a major staffer who has quit the campaign because of crap posted on his web site.
The spokesman for U.S. Senate candidate Rand Paul resigned Thursday after the campaign acknowledged that he maintained a page on a Web site that included racist remarks and suggested the government bore some responsibility for the terror attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.The campaign had nothing left to do but apologize for Hightower's site.
“Today the Rand Paul campaign became aware of some disturbing images on a social network site attributed to a campaign staffer,” a statement from the Paul campaign said in announcing Hightower’s resignation. “These images in no way represent Dr. Paul or his campaign nor do they represent the beliefs of this staff member. These images are reprehensible and have no place in civil discourse.”The obvious question is how did this idiot become the spokesman and treasurer for the campaign? Does the campaign not have a vetting process? The obvious answer is that Hightower was close to Rand Paul to gain such a trusted position without vetting. Not only do the ties reflect poorly on Paul, they highlight the amateur nature of the first time candidate. A polished candidate would have already weeded out such rift-raft in previous campaigns.
Such a political gaffe provided easy fodder for the Grayson campaign.
Grayson said Thursday that Hightower positions are not out of step with the Paul campaign.
“The views and behavior displayed by Rand Paul’s communications director have no place in this campaign,” Grayson said in a statement. “I think Rand Paul’s judgment is seriously in question at this point. There seems to be a pattern of these kinds of disturbing views in his campaign.”
One would think that such campaign gaffes would be the beginning of the implosion of the Rand campaign. But a poll released today shows Rand with a monster 19 point lead on Grayson.
If there was any doubt Rand Paul is a serious candidate for the Republican Senate nomination in Kentucky it can be cast away. Our first poll of the race finds him leading Trey Grayson 44-25.
I imagine this poll is a bit of an outlier. I seriously doubt that Paul has a 19 point lead on Grayson. But I don't doubt that he currently maintains a lead on Grayson. How can this be? His campaign is not exactly running on all cylinders. How could he open up a gap while his campaign flounders?
Rand is in the right place in the right time. He is the "outsider" in the race when politicians are hated. Just look at the internals of the poll to understand why he is currently leading.
Paul is, as the conventional wisdom suggests, drawing his strongest support from Republicans who are unhappy with their party. He has a 54-22 lead over Grayson with voters who are unhappy with the GOP in Congress and a 54-18 advantage with folks who think the party's grown too liberal.
What we have here is more proof of an awakening. An awakening of the silent majority in this country. Earlier this year, we saw the beginnings of it in the Tea Parties. At the time, I thought it was amazing to see so many conservatives protesting. Protesting had always been the domain of the left. Liberals are always protesting something. Conservatives, on the other hand, were the silent majority. They did their job, raised their kids, went to church and pretty much stayed out of politics. The lived their lives.
No longer. The massive orgy of spending by Democrats and the attempts to socialize health care have woken these people from their slumber. They have realized the attacks on their freedom by a monolithic statist government was becoming real. Their simple way of life is now in danger and they are rising up against it. It is a popular revolt in the spirit of the founding fathers. Like many of the religious revivals speckled throughout our history, this one is moving people to action. A wave is coming and 2010 will not be safe year for any politician. That wave may catapult Rand, a man who represents the outside, into the U.S. Senate regardless of his amateur campaign.
