Friday, 26 March 2010

Moving To A New Server

Sorry for the lack of updates over the last couple of days. I am in the middle of moving Elendil's Journal to a new physical server and as such I haven't had time to post much. I'll be resuming my blog entries in the next couple of days.

Posted by brians at 5:44 PM in Announcements
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Wednesday, 24 March 2010

Kentucky US Senate GOP Primary Update

I haven't really commented on the Kentucky GOP primary in awhile, so I thought I would give a cursory look at some of the happenings in the last couple of weeks.

Money

Paul and Grayson have both raised well north of $2 million dollars in the primary. They should both have vast resources available to them over the next two months. I imagine they both have more money on hand than either Democratic candidate and I look to see both candidates dominate the airwaves in the coming weeks. It will be interesting to see whose message will resonate most with voters.

Endorsements

A month ago the Paul campaign received the endorsement of Sarah Palin. An endorsement that provided them with a boost with the GOP base in Kentucky. Looks like the score on endorsements evened out as Grayson received the endorsement of Dick Cheney today.

“I’m a lifelong conservative, and I can tell the real thing when I see it,” Cheney said in a statement. “I have looked at the records of both candidates in the race, and it is clear to me that Trey Grayson is right on the issues that matter – both on fiscal responsibility and on national security.”

Cheney added, “There is no doubt that the real conservative in this race is Trey Grayson, and there is no better choice for Kentuckians in May and November.”

The endorsement of Cheney, a solid conservative, should prove a real boost for Grayson and more importantly cement his conservative credentials with the base. Is the endorsement a game changer? Probably not, but it provides Grayson with an opportunity to tap into the GOP base. A group that has gone solidly to Paul up to this point. If he can't make any inroads with that crowd he is done. Cheney gives him an opening. We will find out if he can leverage it into votes.

Odd Challenge

Paul's campaign said Grayson's position as overseer of elections puts him into a conflict of interest and he should immediately step aside. The Executive Branch Ethics Committe ruled there was not conflict.

The commission’s unanimous opinion held that it is “highly unlikely” a secretary of state in Kentucky could influence the results of a statewide election “without having the universal cooperation of election officials across the state.”

“He quite simply, under normal circumstances, lacks the ability to affect the election's outcome,” the commission concluded in a six-page opinion.

Members also said “it seems unlikely that his participation would affect the public's confidence in the integrity of the executive branch.”

I thought it was a bit of a paranoid request by the Paul campaign. Do they not understand the Secretary of State's role in elections? He basically is there to tally the results from all of the precincts. He has no power to effect the election process. Is this story a big deal? No. But it is weird.



Posted by brians at 3:19 PM in Kentucky Politics
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Tuesday, 23 March 2010

Conway Is Done

I remember when Jack Conway ran for the third congressional district against Northup. At the time, it was obvious he was a elitist liberal. He has tried to muddy the water a bit since he decided to attempt winning a U.S. Senate seat. He has tried to position himself as a "blue dog" Democrat. Today that water has been cleared as he came out of the closet and declared his socialist tendencies.

He (Jack Conway) noted that the U.S. Senate will get a chance to vote on the issue this week. “It has taken decades to get this close and I would vote to get this bill over the finish line,” he said.

He would vote for the socializing of 1/6th of our economy. He obviously has no problems with socialism. In fact, he apparently thinks it is a great idea. So much so that he would vote for he thinks is an "imperfect bill". With public opinion heavily against the crap sandwich that is Obamacare, I now declare Conway's candidacy dead. If he can somehow manage to make it through the primary, he will be destroyed in the general. The only people who like this bill are the hard core left. Fortunately, Kentucky doesn't have many of them. The Republican primary winner would destroy Conway with over 60% of the vote.

I wonder why he did it? I bet it was because Mongiardo was leading with liberals in the state. A group he thought he had sowed up. Maybe he thinks Obamacare will rally them to his cause and allow him to close the gap with Mongiardo and beat him in the primary? I don't know the reason. All I know is that it buried any chance he had in the general election.

In the mean time, I love the delusions of the left.

“I truly think that once the people understand what the health care bill will accomplish — that more people will have insurance, that people can’t lose their insurance because of pre-existing conditions and that it will be the wealthy who pays more — the issue will not be as nearly as important in the fall election as creation of jobs,” Briscoe said.

He is dreaming if he thinks these benefits he proclaims will win the day. People have heard this crap for months now and still reject the bill. This isn't about messaging. The people have heard the message and have soundly rejected it. The silent majority has been stirred from its slumber.

Remember, a month ago a Republican won a U.S. Senate seat in Massachusetts. Let me repeat, in Massachusetts. Massachusetts. There isn't a bluer state in the country. If that happens in a blue state what do you think is going to happen in the redder states in the country. 

The tsunami is coming and the Democrats don't see it. You want proof? Check out the generic congressional ballot. In a normal year, Republicans would pick up seats in congress if they are trailing by a couple points of Democrats in the generic ballot. The latest Rasmussen numbers show Republicans with a 10 point lead. I have never seen that in my life time. The fury is building and in November the Democrats will reap what they have sowed. The only hope is that we can roll this statism back before we go too far down the road to serfdom.



Posted by brians at 10:20 AM in Kentucky Politics
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Monday, 22 March 2010

ObamaCare Screws Kentucky

Our state is struggle with huge budget deficits. We don't have enough money coming into the public coffers to pay for state services. The deficit is so big that the state is making necessary cuts to almost every government agency. Kentucky's situation is dire. Now ObamaCare is about to be signed into law, and it will crush Kentucky's stripped down budgets. The following are remarks made by my congressman, Bret Guthrie on the house floor before the vote.

“And one of the pieces that they are trying to make fit to keep the bill under a trillion dollars is an unfunded mandate on states.”

“As we are here today, my former colleagues in the state senate in Kentucky are meeting to put together a budget bill.”

“They are working tirelessly to close a billion dollar budget gap while preserving the momentum we have had in education reform and trying to make college more affordable.”

“And what does this bill do - it puts a $30 billion unfunded mandate by CBO estimates onto our states.”

To the south of Kentucky, Phil Bredesen - a very well respected Democratic Governor of Tennessee says this is the mother of all unfunded mandates.”

“Just to the north of me in Indiana, Governor Mitch Daniels said a half-a-million more Hoosiers will be on Medicaid, costing the state billions in taxpayer dollars.”

“It is going to cost my state, according to Heritage Foundation, $303 million beginning from 2014 to 2019.”

“So, my former colleagues are sitting there trying to get through the state budget, hoping for a light at the end of the tunnel for the next budget session. If we pass this bill, the light at the end of the tunnel will be a $303 million freight train.”

$300 million dollars. That is a lot of money and guess what? The state doesn't have that much money. And does anyone really believe the amount will be that low? So what does that mean for Kentuckians? We won't have any choice. We will have to either cut funding for education, cut funding for roads, cut funding for our justice system, or we will have to crush our floundering economy by raising taxes. Heck the answer will probably be all of the above. Does that sound like a good idea? No it doesn't. Unfortunately, that is the crap sandwich that Kentucky and its citizens are going to have to digest because the abomination that is ObamaCare will soon be the law of the land.

Posted by brians at 7:20 PM in Kentucky Politics
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Thursday, 18 March 2010

No Wonder Health Insurance Is So High

Chiropractors are complete quackery. They don't have a medical license. They don't have access to the emergency room. They don't have the ability to write a prescription. And most importantly, they have no clue what hell they are doing.
The basic idea of classical chiropractic is that "subluxations" are the cause of most medical problems. According to chiropractic, a "subluxation" is a misalignment of the spine that allegedly interferes with nerve signals from the brain. However, there is no scientific evidence for spinal subluxations and none have ever been observed by medical practitioners such as orthopedic surgeons, neurosurgeons, or radiologists.
Here is my favorite part.
Many chiropractors claim that germ theory is wrong
Dude, if you can't agree with basic scientific principles of medicine then what you are selling is nothing more than a new-age mumbo jumbo that is probably worse for you than doing nothing. It is fair to say that chiropractors do not practice real health care. So why the hell do insurance companies pay for chiropractic care? Why the hell is the Kentucky senate legitimizing such quackery by passing legislation requiring insurance companies to pay for chiropractic care.
Senate Bill 157 is now before the House of Representatives, but relatively little time remains in the legislative session for the bill to achieve passage there.

It would require insurers to reimburse chiropractors for “evaluation and management” of a patient on each office visit, as well as separate amounts for any manipulations.

Under current practice, chiropractors typically are not reimbursed for evaluating patients each time they get follow-up treatments, unless there is a change in condition.

No wonder health insurance is so high. Insurance companies are paying out money for people to see new-age snake oil salesmen rather than real health care professionals. Having the state government force the insurance companies to pay for more of this stuff is ridiculous and will do nothing but cause insurance premiums to rise higher. Hopefully this bill will never make it into law.

Posted by brians at 6:40 AM in Kentucky Politics
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Wednesday, 17 March 2010

Politics Of A 2 Year Old

I missed this last week, but it looks like Democrats are playing politics with our kids education. Rather than help the schools in the most need they would rather spend money to help out their own party members.
The budget bill's “Critical School Needs” plan includes $684 million in bond funds for 65 school projects, and 50 of those projects aren't as badly in need of replacement as the seven schools in Republican districts, according to rankings of need posted on the Department of Education's Web site.
Beshear would be so proud! But this is nothing but petty politics. How else can you explain Democrats passing over Republican districts in desperate need of funding? The pathetic thing is the Democrats admit as much.
Key Democrats who oversaw the budget process acknowledged that the vote on the revenue bill last Thursday was key in deciding which projects — water and sewer projects, as well as schools – got funded.
Are you kidding me? Are these people two years old? If you don't vote my way, I am going to cut off all funding for your district. How childish can you get? And here I thought the legislators were working to take care of ALL Kentuckians. Instead we are getting treated to a nice dose of execrable politics. No wonder this state is so far behind the rest of the country.

Posted by brians at 8:25 PM in Kentucky Politics
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Tuesday, 16 March 2010

Yarmuth! Should Be In Trouble

For the life of me, I have no idea why some currently elected Republican didn't challenge Yarmuth! in the 3rd congressional district. Why? Because Yarmuth! is incredibly vulnerable as one of the most liberal members of Congress. In a year of backlash against statism, there is no way that Yarmuth! should get re-elected. Recent poll numbers back that statement.

In 3rd Congressional District, a poll of 1979 Registered Voters showed:

For Yarmuth          27%
Against Yarmuth  23%
Depends on Ballot  48%
Margin of Sampling Error +/- 2.2%

Are you kidding me? A sitting two term congressman records only 27% who would definitely vote for him in a re-election. A strong Republican challenger would have destroyed Yarmuth! this year. The question is will any of the four candidates vying for the spot be able to mount a serious campaign? Considering none of the challengers have raised more than $25,000 I would have to say the chances are fairly bleak.

The Louisville GOP is a complete embarrassment. How is it possible that they could not find a serious candidate in such an obvious Republican year? Hell the Republicans in Lexington found serious candidates to challenge Chandler. And Chandler is a much stronger candidate than Yarmuth!. Pathetic.

Posted by brians at 8:17 PM in Louisville Politics
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Monday, 15 March 2010

Basketball and Politics

UK basketball fans hate Duke. Why the hatred? It all goes back to 1992 in the East regional finals. A match up between the Duke Blue Devils and Kentucky Wildcats for a spot in the final four. Anybody who watched the game would walk away saying it was one of the greatest basketball games ever played. At the end it came down to one shot. (WARNING: Not safe for UK fans - If you are a die hard UK fan do not click through)



After the game, the vitriol from UK fans against Duke was unbelievable. The hatred lingers to this day among many Kentucky fans. Why am I bringing up this sore subject? Because it has found its way into Kentucky politics.

Last year, Mongiardo needled Conway for being a Duke graduate. At the time I thought it was an interesting ploy. I never thought a Duke graduate would ever run for statewide office in Kentucky so I never contemplated how it would play out politically. But with the size of Richie Farmer's wins I would have to say UK basketball does has some impact on the electorate.

What I didn't realize is that we have another Duke graduate in the race for U.S. Senate. Apparently, Rand Paul, like Conway, is a Duke graduate and now Grayson is making jokes about Rand's association with the school.



It is not a very issue oriented move. In fact it is a bit childish. But I still find it an interesting ploy and would really like to know how effective it is with the electorate. Especially with those that don't pay much attention to the issues and just vote on some warm and fuzzy superficial feeling. I doubt we will ever learn the effect it has if any, but it is an interesting question none the less. It reminds me of the questions I have about effectiveness of bumper stickers.

Posted by brians at 7:33 PM in Kentucky Politics
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Toss Up Time

The race for mayor in Louisville has a crowded Democratic field and a surprisingly competitive Republican field. Over the weekend, poll numbers came out for the mayor's race.



Let's break down the field starting with the Republicans.

Thieneman holds a slight lead over Heiner 34-30 with Robertson way behind at 6%. That leaves over 30% undecided which is a huge wild card in the race. Personally, I am a bit surprised that Thieneman doesn't have a larger lead since his name was heavily associated with the movement against the library tax. He was also in the paper a lot over his botched Congressional race two years ago. Or maybe Republicans remember his disgraceful exit from that race and it is holding him back. Only time will tell.

Regardless, both candidates are going to have their work cut out for them in the coming weeks. I imagine their message will get drowned out by the crowded Democratic field and race for U.S. Senate. They are going to have to try to cut through all of the noise and lift their name id if they hope to win.

While the Republican side has two candidates fighting for the spot, the Democratic side is a complete mess. Fischer leads the way with 20% followed by Tandy with 17%, King 12%, Allen at 8% and four other candidates sitting around 2%. 32% of the electorate is still undecided.

It doesn't surprise me at all that Fischer leads the way. He is coming off a run for the U.S. Senate two years ago and should lead in name recognition. I think it is a bit of a surprise that Tandy is in second and King in third. I figure King would have much greater name recognition. Especially after the debacle of buying his daughter a judgeship and his tenure as president of the Metro Council. Or maybe the fiasco with his daughter may be hurting him. We can only hope.

At this point the polls tell us one thing about the race. It is going to be a wild finish. No one has a solid lead and all the top candidates are close to each other. There is no telling who is going to win the race.
 
With both races being this close and with so many undecideds, the race is going to come down to two things. First and foremost it will be about name recognition. This will be an uphill battle with so many candidates and a highly competitive battle for U.S. Senate. Each campaign is going to have to scramble to eek out as much media (both free and paid) time as possible.

The other determining factor will be campaign organization. The team that can identify supporters and get them to the polls in the greater number will have an excellent chance of making up ground on more popular candidates in this wide open field. I don't expect any of these candidates to win by a large margin.

Notice I didn't say anything about the issues. Issues will have nothing to do with the primary winner. It will all be about name id and get out the vote efforts. There are just too many people in the races for the issues to play much of a role.

Posted by brians at 7:20 PM in Louisville Politics
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Saturday, 13 March 2010

Confirmation

A couple of days ago I theorized that Grayson's problems might be associated with poor name recognition. I know he has won two state wide elections, but it has been to a minor office that doesn't get much media attention. An internal poll released by Bill Johnson's campaign confirms my suspicions.

Name identification comes in two forms, soft and hard. Soft name identification means that a person can pick the candidate from a list of real and phoney names. Hard identification occurs when a person can name the candidate without any prompting. Why is it important? Because the person with the highest name recognition ALWAYS wins an election. Only when name ID is on the same footing do things like favorables matter. Let's check out Grayson's standings.
Trey Grayson

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Trey Grayson?
Favorable 36%
Unfavorable 14%
No Opinion 40%
 
Name ID 90%
Hard Name ID 50%
Never Heard Of 10%
A 90% soft name ID is pretty good for a candidate and would win a down ballot statewide race, but the 50% hard name ID is not all that great for a candidate trying to win a major state wide election. No wonder 40% of the electorate doesn't have an opinion of Grayson, they don't know who he is.

Rand Paul on the other hand has been able to use free national media to gain a much higher name ID in the state in a relatively short amount of time.

Rand Paul

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Rand Paul?
Favorable  46%
Unfavorable 15%
No Opinion 33%
 
Name ID  94%
Hard Name ID 61%
Never Heard Of 6%
Paul leads Grayson by 11% on hard name ID. That fact alone explains why Paul is currently leading in the polls. Grayson is going to have to get his name out to Kentuckians if he hopes to close the gap between himself and Paul in the next 10 weeks.

Posted by brians at 5:23 PM in Kentucky Politics
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Thursday, 11 March 2010

Senate Fixes Amanda's Bill

Early on I opposed Amanda's bill because it would have allowed the government to legally track a citizen who hasn't committed a crime. The original bill would force anyone subjected to a domestic violence order to undergo electronic surveillance by the government. I understand the need to protect victims of domestic abuse, but snatching freedom away from law abiding citizens is not the answer. The senate today fixed the obvious flaw in the bill.

A Senate panel made significant changes to a bill Thursday that would allow judges to order electronic tracking devices to protect some victims in domestic violence cases.

One of the changes made by the Senate Judiciary Committee, which gave unanimous approval to the amended version of House Bill 1, known as “Amanda’s Bill,” would only allow electronic monitoring after a domestic violence order is violated.

These changes makes sense to me. If you violate a court order, you are no longer a law abiding citizen and thus could be subjected to electronic surveillance. The amendment to the bill helps to protect legitimate victims while shielding law abiding citizens from an atrocious abridgment of their freedoms.

Posted by brians at 9:33 PM in Kentucky Politics
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Wednesday, 10 March 2010

Bill Johnson Withdraws From GOP Primary

I first became aware of Bill Johnson as a candidate when he received an endorsement from Alan Keyes last year. That was all I needed to know about his conservative credentials. My kind of guy. The problem he had was his inability to raise money. I know he loaned himself a bunch of money, but that isn't the same as putting together an organization and raising millions of dollars as a candidate.

A lot of people might disagree with me on this next point or complain that it isn't fair, but I think the ability to raise funds is vitally important element of politics. First and most important it is a sign of organizational strength of a candidate. It shows that a candidate has the mettle it takes to win and hold political office. Secondly, like a free market system, it naturally whittles down the field to a few qualified candidates. While Bill Johnson was a strong conservative, he wasn't a good candidate. Especially for a U.S. Senate race.

Even so, he kept trying to proclaim himself a legitimate candidate. Even denying the results of the recent SurveyUSA poll that showed him with little support. Today he faced reality and dropped out of the race.

Todd County businessman Bill Johnson has decided to withdraw from Kentucky’s U.S. Senate race.

Johnson, a Republican, issued a statement Wednesday that said a poll conducted for his campaign Tuesday night showed results that “were not encouraging for a continued run.

“It is time to gracefully and honorably exit the race for the U.S. Senate.”

The reality is you can't just run for the U.S. Senate and expect to win. You have to build up a base of support over time. Bill Johnson appears to be a young guy. I hope he can find a local race to jump into and win. It will allow him to build the political base necessary to run for higher office somewhere down the line. I hope he does it because we need more conservatives like him serving in elected office.

Posted by brians at 10:06 PM in Kentucky Politics
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Tuesday, 9 March 2010

KY US Senate Poll - Red Edition

When Grayson won the race for Kentucky Secretary of State 6 years a go, it was obvious that he was an up and comer in the GOP. He followed up his first win with another victory 4 years later when Gov Fletcher was significantly beaten by Beshear. That victory was amazing since he accomplished it without gubernatorial coat tails. Even though he scored an impressive victory, I wondered how strong his name recognition really was in the state. I knew everyone involved in politics knew him, but I wondered how well known he was with the general electorate.

Three years after his re-election campaign, he saddled up to run for the U.S. Senate. What surprised me the most was that early polling only showed him with support in the 30s. That is when I knew that he was suffering from a lack of name recognition with the general electorate.

Enter Rand Paul. Paul used his father's celebrity status to not only raise a significant amount of money, but was able to leverage it into television appearances on the the national level. The media buzz he created along with Grayson's low key campaign propelled Paul to a commanding lead in the polls.

What is interesting about the latest SurveyUSA poll is how consistent Paul's lead is across pretty much every demographic. It is the same type of lead a well known candidate would have over a lesser known candidate. It seems like a lead built upon name id. So what does it mean?

I think the challenge for Grayson going forward will be to increase his name recognition with the electorate. His campaign has been too passive and hasn't really engaged the state. He still has 20% of the electorate which is undecided. I think he can grab a big chunk of it if he gets out there and defines himself with the public.

The challenge for Paul is a different one. He has to be able to defend his lead in the polls. His biggest challenge will be to retain 40+% he has amassed so far. Especially since he is the libertarian candidate in the race. It will be interesting to see how well he stands up to not only the pressure of the campaign, but the attacks on the soft spots of the libertarian ideology among Republicans.

One thing he can't afford to do is go on the defensive. No one wins a defensive war. Decisions like backing out of a forum because it might not be friendly is not a good idea. For one thing it brings more attention and news to the event than if he would have attended. These guys have been in a number of forums together and none of them have made much news. But now the story is Paul skipping out on the event. It makes him look weak and scared. A situation that is easily exploitable by his opponents.

Needless to say, it is going to be an interesting 10 weeks till primary day.

Posted by brians at 9:24 PM in Kentucky Politics
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Monday, 8 March 2010

KY US Senate Poll - Blue Edition

The latest poll from SurveyUSA has been released and Conway is in trouble. He finds himself down 18 to Mongiardo with 10 weeks until the primary. The biggest problem for Conway is the break down by regions.

Conway leads in Louisville, but trails by 40 points in the eastern and western parts of the state. The poll numbers tell me that Mongiardo has been able to successfully brand Conway as the big city slicker politician and have used it to bludgeon him in the more rural parts of the state. The only thing left in Conway's favor is his huge war chest. He should be able to swamp Mongiardo in paid media over the next 10 weeks..

The only question remains is can he utilize that advantage to redefine himself with voters in the state. Or has he been pigeonholed as a candidate. I just have a hard time believing he will be able to ingratiate himself with the rural electorate. But then again all he has to do is be respectable and win the central part of the state big.  Regardless, he is up the stream and needs to start paddling hard before his campaign goes over the waterfall.

Posted by brians at 9:15 PM in Kentucky Politics
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Saturday, 6 March 2010

Latest Rand Paul Ad

After some early skirmishes between Paul and Grayson, it seems that the campaigns are starting to get back to the basics of campaigning. The first step is introducing yourself to the electorate. The latest advertisement by Rand Paul is a solid attempt at it.



As a student of politics I love the imagery of this ad. Morning in Kentucky harkens back to Ronald Reagan's Morning in America campaign. The only question is will the average person connect it back to the Morning in America theme? This leads to my biggest problem with the ad. I think the imagery and feeling it generates is strong, but the overall message is weak. It tells us very little about Rand Paul and why we should vote for him. For that reason, I think they missed on an opportunity at creating a truly great ad.

Posted by brians at 5:29 PM in Kentucky Politics
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Friday, 5 March 2010

Ky Dems Are Getting Desperate

Kentucky Democrats are screwed. New polling in the state shows both Conway and Mongiardo trailing either Grayson or Paul by double digits. They are trailing anywhere from 13 to 18 points.  The lead is greater than the percentage of voters who are not sure. Such dismal inevitability leads to acts of desperation. Conway hoping to score points on Paul and Grayson's support of Sen Bunning ran the following advertisement.



Let's rewind the situation a bit. Why is he claiming that Bunning is throwing high and wild? Because Bunning decided to block a unanimous consent measure that blocked funding for out of work benefits. While it seems like he is scoring political points for his demagoguery, he is really opening himself up to a devastating line of attack. Bunning blocked the bill because he wanted it paid for rather than continuing to run up the federal debt. I guess Mr Conway is OK with spending money he doesn't have.

The reason we are having a voter revolt this year is because of massive debt piled up by irresponsible spending. Apparently, Conway is against what the voters in this country want. It is difficult winning an election when you are on the wrong side of an important issue.

But the desperation doesn't end with a wild stab at populism. He just makes up stuff about his record. I remember him continuing Stumbo's law suit on "price gouging" by big oil. I also remember Conway joining the national lawsuit against big pharmaceuticals. What I don't remember is hearing about him winning any of those cases. So he is just making crap up about saving taxpayers millions of dollars.

The biggest reason this whole ad reeks of desperation is that he is attacking the Republican front runners in the primary season. Last time I checked he was running in the Democratic primary against Mongiardo. Talking about a wild pitch. I think this ad is much wilder than anything Bunning ever threw.

Posted by brians at 6:15 PM in Kentucky Politics
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Wednesday, 3 March 2010

Grayson's New Ad Is Good

Political television ads are the primary tool of communication that candidates running for state wide office have to connect with the voters of the state. That is why it is important to first raise enough money to be able to utilize the resource. But after the money is raised, it is even more important to use television effectively. Trey Grayson's latest ad is a great example of using that medium effectively early in a campaign.


I like two things about this ad. First it provides a basic statement of principles. It tells people why he is running for the U.S. Senate. Secondly, it provides an example of how he has applied the principles of smaller government in his currently elected role. I think the ad is a solid effort at defining who he is as a candidate.

My only question is why he didn't lead with this ad? I think this would have been a perfect opening move. Instead he decided to attack Rand Paul with his first two efforts. I know those ads put the Paul campaign on the defensive, but wouldn't the Grayson campaign been better served doing that later in the race? I just don't understand the political calculus in their decision making. Although they got off to a bit of a shaky start, they seem to be back on track with this latest effort.

Posted by brians at 5:35 PM in Kentucky Politics
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Tuesday, 2 March 2010

Environmentalists Tired of Talking - Talk Some More

Environmentalists in Kentucky are tired of being ignored.
“We have petitioned, marched, sung, written, lobbied, testified and pleaded — all to no avail,” Berry said. “But today we declare that business as usual in Frankfort — long intolerable — has now become unacceptable.”
So what are they going to do about it?

The environmentalists, members of Kentuckians for the Commonwealth (KFTC), took turns reading a Declaration of Independence-type statement.

It called on the state’s political leaders to break their close ties with coal, remove legislators with ties to coal companies from leadership positions, and call for an end to “extreme and sometimes violent speech” directed at people who speak out against coal in the coalfields.

Wow! They are tired of talking to legislators so their solution is to talk some more. Freaking hilarious. I am sure the legislators are quaking in their boots over this powerful "declaration".



Posted by brians at 9:07 PM in Kentucky Politics
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Why We Shouldn't Elect Judges

Everyone knows that Katie King is a below average judge. Hell she wasn't even remotely qualified to be a sitting judge when her daddy bought her the seat. Thus it doesn't come as a shock that she gets a poor rating among lawyers of the Louisville Bar Association. What is shocking is that three other judges got worse ratings than her.

The 20 judges, who were evaluated by lawyers, had an average score of 83 percent in generally doing well in their positions. But four scored below the mid-70s, putting them in the below-average range, said Jim Lunger of the Thoroughbred Research Group, which conducted the survey for the bar association.

Those judges were Katie King, at 69 percent; Annette Karem, 65 percent; William Ryan, 66 percent; and Paula Fitzgerald, 36 percent. Ryan and Fitzgerald both have senior status.

Wow. How piss poor of a judge do you have to be to score lower than Katie King? Apparently Paula Fitzgerald has no business being a judge yet she is considered a "senior" judge. This is the primary reason we shouldn't elect judges. The electorate has no reasonable means of knowing the legal qualifications or skills of each judicial candidate. Therefore you are bound to end up with a handful of pathetic judges like these.

We really need to have appointments for judgeships. Yeah we would probably end up with some cronyism, but in general the picks would be solid because the person appointing them won't want it to become a political issue in his or her next campaign.



Posted by brians at 9:06 PM in Louisville Politics
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Monday, 1 March 2010

Prisoner's Dilemma and Bunning's Stuborn Stance

When I took introduction to political science, I was introduced to the concept of the "prisoner's dilemma". The problem is outlined as such.
Two suspects are arrested by the police. The police have insufficient evidence for a conviction, and, having separated both prisoners, visit each of them to offer the same deal. If one testifies (defects from the other) for the prosecution against the other and the other remains silent (cooperates with the other), the betrayer goes free and the silent accomplice receives the full 10-year sentence. If both remain silent, both prisoners are sentenced to only six months in jail for a minor charge. If each betrays the other, each receives a five-year sentence. Each prisoner must choose to betray the other or to remain silent. Each one is assured that the other would not know about the betrayal before the end of the investigation. How should the prisoners act?
The whole point of the exercise is to introduce game theory. Here is a matrix of the possible decisions.

  Prisoner B Stays Silent Prisoner B Betrays
Prisoner A Stays Silent Each serves 6 months Prisoner A: 10 years
Prisoner B: goes free
Prisoner A Betrays Prisoner A: goes free
Prisoner B: 10 years		 Each serves 5 years

The interesting aspect of the game is that each individual would be best served to stay silent. In that scenario they serve a combine 1 year in jail. The other three scenarios have them going to jail for a combined 10 years. The only problem is that the rational choice for each prisoner is to betray. Why? Because they are guaranteed to end up in better shape or equal to the other prisoner if they betray. In the other case they may end up much worse off than the other prisoner.

Ok, I see it is an interesting thought problem, but what does it have to do with Sen Bunning's latest antics?
Kentucky Sen. Jim Bunning on Monday again held up legislation that extends unemployment and health insurance benefits....

Bunning said he supports extending unemployment benefits and he tried unsuccessfully last week to negotiate an agreement with the Senate Democratic leadership.

“We cannot keep adding to the debt,” Bunning said in remarks on the Senate floor. The legislation is not paid for, contrary to a recent pay-as-you-go law that Congress passed and President Barack Obama signed into law.

Basically, Bunning is saying that he is not going to allow Congress to keep spending taxpayer money without first paying for it. The Democrats immediately jumped on him as being against the working class of America.

The Republican senator’s objection to the funding bill has temporarily shut down multi-million dollar construction projects in several states and canceled highway reimbursements to states worth hundreds of millions of dollars, said Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood.

“As American families are struggling in tough economic times, I am keenly disappointed that political games are putting a stop to important construction projects around the country,” LaHood said in a statement. “This means that construction workers will be sent home from job sites because federal inspectors must be furloughed.”

Sen Reid said Republicans were standing in the way of providing emergency help to people in need.

“They said ‘No’ to the families of their own states and all our states who count on us when they need action,” Reid said.

"Because of one senator's irresponsible actions, over 61,000 Michigan workers will begin losing their unemployment benefits on Monday," said Sen. Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich. "These workers and their families cannot afford to wait for help."
The evil Republicans just want the common man to suffer! Again, what does this have to do with the prisoner's dilemma? Because it is the same problem that the Democrats are exploiting to trash Bunning. Let's rework the problem to reflect the current situation. On one side we have person unemployed and on the other side we have the rest of society. We have the choice of responsible spending and irresponsible spending. Let's revisit the matrix. The X axis is society and the Y axis is the unemployed individual. The first result inside the matrix is the individuals results and the second is society's result in the game.

  Responsible Spending
 Irresponsible Spending
Responsible Spending
 40, 40
 0, 50
Irresponsible Spending
 50, 0
 1, 1

If the government spends irresponsibly for the people out of work then those people are better off, but the society as a whole loses. Why? Because money spent on them is taken from the rest of society. The rest of society is poorer for the transfer of wealth. The Democrats argue that if we don't help the little guy then all we care about is the rich. The rich will get everything and the poor will be stuck with nothing. For Democrats the only two options are the lower left and upper right quadrants.

The only problem with the Democrat's argument is that they offer the same deal to every group in society. If everyone takes their deal we end up in the bottom right quadrant were everyone loses. For that is where the leviathan of government overwhelms the economy and shreds it into tatters.

The problem Republicans face in convincing people that they are better off with responsible spendingt. They are asking people to give up their bit of government pork for the greater good knowing in the long run they will be better off for it. In the example of the unemployed gentleman. While he may suffer initially from the lack of federal money. In the long term he will be better off without it. The economy will recover quicker without government intrusion and new jobs will be created. Allowing the unemployed gentleman to find gainful employment.

What makes it such a difficult sell is that the individual's rational best interest is to take the irresponsible spending. In affect getting a piece of the pie while it is still there. It is difficult to get past this rational with voters when Democrats continually play one group against another. The Democrats have been feasting off this dilemma for years to drive their agenda.

It has worked until recently. People are awakening to see the government nearing the cliffs and are beginning to resist. They are beginning to understand the risks of irresponsible spending and are forming Tea Parties across the country. The move to responsible spending has to start some where and Bunning is leading that charge in the senate. The only question is will people stick together for the common good or resort to their base rationales. We will find out by the general publics reaction to Bunning's stand in the senate.

Posted by brians at 9:29 PM in Political Issues
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