Elendil's Journal

Is Beshear A Leader?

2008-07-23T17:49:48-04:00

By now many of you know about Gov Beshear's town hall meeting in Pikeville last week.

Gov. Steve Beshear took three plane loads full of officials with him to Pike County at a cost of more than $7,000 Thursday for the first stop in his six-week statewide tour of town hall meetings.

That came just days after Beshear suggested ways state workers could conserve on fuel when commuting.

The responses to the story are so obvious. The first is a charge of hypocrisy. Do what I say and not what I do. The second is why did he take everyone?

But Republican Party Chairman Steve Robertson questioned why the state paid for so many cabinet officials to attend if they weren’t part of the official program.

Robertson said the taxpayers appear to be footing a $7,000 bill for one stop in what appears to be a public image-building tour.

While the story is amusing, I think it provides some insight into the problems with this administration. Let's look at Beshear's response to the incident .

"I happen to think it's important to listen to what the people of this commonwealth think," he said in Lexington Monday at the Kentucky Association of Conservation Districts convention. "So when I'm going around the state for the next two months, I'm going to take the cabinet secretaries with me regardless of whether the Herald-Leader likes it or not."

Beshear opened himself up to such obvious ridicule so his cabinet members could listen to the people? That is silly and makes little sense to me. The members of his cabinet have only been in the job for six months. They shouldn't exactly be out of touch with the world around them. I am sure the people in the town hall meetings had no idea who any of the secretaries were nor did they care. I know I wouldn't care. The people of Pikeville showed up to speak to the governor.

The governor should be able to listen to the peoples concerns and incorporate them into his vision for tomorrow. Once he does, he should be able to provide direction for his cabinet officials to implement his agenda.

All of which brings me back to my original question. Why did he make this trip with his entire entourage knowing full well that he would be open to such ridicule? Part of it is because he thought he could slip it by like previous administrations. I think the bigger reason is he doesn't have a vision for Kentucky. He is hoping that his cabinet will help him to provide an agenda for his term. He doesn't know what to do himself.

The pieces are beginning to fall into place for me. Beshear was elected based on the platitude that we can do anything if we have casinos. He had no idea or vision to what that "anything" actually was. He ran for governor so he could have the prestige and not to actually move Kentucky forward.

This is why he surrounded himself with the old cronies in the first place and why he took them with him on these town hall meetings. He has no idea what he is doing and is hoping his "friends" will help him make something up. It also explains his failure to lead during the last legislative session. He didn't know where to lead.

Beshear is adrift and has no idea where he is going. Without a vision he can't lead this state forward. I doubt he has the leadership skills to develop a vision and instruct his secretaries to implement his plan for tomorrow. Instead he seeks some form of consensus as to what to do next. As Margaret Thatcher said, "consensus is the death of leadership".

Northup Closing Gap On Yarmuth!

2008-07-22T22:40:45-04:00

Northup has begun closing the gap on Yarmuth! in the election closing the gap to 10 points with over three months to go. I am not surprised by the movement. Northup was a popular congressman who only lost because of the tidal wave that swept Republicans out of power two years ago. She was going to do better once people realized she was running again.

The other issue that is helping her is the high gas prices. The do nothing Democrats in Congress have done zilch to help the energy problems this country faces and Yarmuth! is getting swept up in the growing anger over the price of gas.

While the current polling shows the race at 10 points, it also has 18% of the voters who claim they might change their mind. Once the undecideds are added in to the mix over 20% of the voters could swing for one candidate or the other. That tells me the race while leaning towards Yarmuth! is still up for grab.

The one surprise I did find in the latest numbers is how well Northup is doing among black voters. She is currently garnering 16% of the black vote. While that doesn't sound like much, It is a big percentage for a Republican. If she can hold that margin, I believe she has a realistic chance of winning this race.

It will be interesting to see if the polling continues to move her way over the next couple of months.

2nd District Race Virtually Over?

2008-07-21T21:07:03-04:00

Last week I talked about how raising money in a campaign separates the wheat from the chaff. It turns out I am not the only one who thinks that way. Leading political analyst for Roll Call magazine, Stuart Rothenberg, has a similar take and it doesn't bode well for Boswell.

It's no longer the time for mere scenarios or fundraising polling memos. Now is the time for serious candidates to show they have the fundraising energy and prowess to run top-shelf campaigns.

The latest round of fundraising numbers shows that some Congressional hopefuls have established themselves as credible candidates, while others need to find an explanation for their weak totals.

The weakest showings? How about three of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's "emerging races," all of which might be migrating to a new DCCC submerging races category?

Kentucky 2nd district hopeful David Boswell was promoted by some Democrats as a strong contender for retiring Rep. Ron Lewis' (R) open seat. Yes, said Democrats about the Owensboro-Bowling Green district, it's conservative, but the Democratic state Senator is a good fit for it.
Well, Boswell's June 30 cash-on-hand total of $45,000 should end that talk. Republican nominee Brett Guthrie's $661,000 in the bank means that, barring a total turnaround of finances, this race is over.

At the time that fund raising numbers came out last week, I thought that Boswell's poor showing would make it unlikely for him to win. I felt that Guthrie's money advantage should allow him to easily pull away from Boswell. It turns out that Rothenberger feels the same way.

Elendil's Fitness Plan: Step 1 - Commit

2008-07-21T20:36:44-04:00

My biggest accomplishment this year has been to get into the best shape of my life. In the process, I have learned a ton of stuff about fitness, training, and eating. What I want to do is distill this information into a simple five step plan that anyone can follow to lose weight and get in the best shape of their lives.

Being healthy is a simple process. It just isn't easy to do in the real world. Why? Because time is always pressing. There never seems to be enough time in the day. We are so consumed doing stuff that health always seems to take a back seat.

What I contend is that no matter how busy you feel, their is always time for a healthy lifestyle. How many times have you heard someone complain about not having time to be healthy, but they can tell you all about their favorite television show. There is time, you just have to make it.

The first step to being healthy is to commit. Health must be one of your top priorities. Here is tip that might help the process. When you plan your week, you should start by setting time aside to shop, to cook, and to work out. If you schedule time for these activities first, I think you will be surprised with how much blank space will be left on your calendar. For those who are super busy this may take some creativity but it can be done.

The second obstacle is you social life. You go out and eat. You go out and drink. You want to be social. It is hard to eat healthy while being social. The key is choosing smart foods and stopping after 1 drink. But as you get results it will become easier and easier to say no.

I am not going to lie. Living a healthy life is not easy. It takes planning. It takes time. It takes discipline. It takes dedication. There is no 15 minute plan or universal pill you can take to be healthy. But if you make the commitment and stick with it for three months it will work. You will be surprised with all of the energy you have. You will feel better about yourself. You will become more productive. You life will be transformed for the better.

I can give you the knowledge you need to reach this state. What I can't give you is the desire and motivation to obtain it. So take a moment and visualize how you want to look. Think about how it would make you feel. Embrace that vision and commit to living a healthy lifestyle so you achieve that goal. If you don't take the first step, it will be impossible to succeed.

More Bad News For Global Warming Enthusiasts

2008-07-18T14:18:09-04:00

The man made global warming theory continues to unravel. The latest convert is Australian David Evans. He was the scientist who wrote the carbon accounting model for measuring Australia's compliance to the Kyoto Protocol.

When I started that job in 1999 the evidence that carbon emissions caused global warming seemed pretty good: CO2 is a greenhouse gas, the old ice core data, no other suspects.

The evidence was not conclusive, but why wait until we were certain when it appeared we needed to act quickly? Soon government and the scientific community were working together and lots of science research jobs were created. We scientists had political support, the ear of government, big budgets, and we felt fairly important and useful (well, I did anyway). It was great. We were working to save the planet.

But since 1999 new evidence has seriously weakened the case that carbon emissions are the main cause of global warming, and by 2007 the evidence was pretty conclusive that carbon played only a minor role and was not the main cause of the recent global warming. As Lord Keynes famously said, "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?"

David points to three reasons he has changed his mind on the topic.

There is no greenhouse signature. If global warming were occurring there would be a hot spot about 10km up in the atmosphere over the tropics. We have been measuring the temperature there for decades and have not found a hot spot. Since there is no hot spot greenhouse gasses can't be the cause of global warming.
The current warming trend ended in 2001 and the last year saw an drop of about one degree Fahrenheit.
New ice cores show that temperature increases preceded rises in atmospheric carbon during the last six warming cycles over the last 500,000 years. Which is cause and which is effect?

Hate to bust your bubble global warming environmentalists, but the facts are starting to get in the way of your dogma. I guess you are going to have to find a new reason why we need to implement socialism and destroy capitalism. It was a nice try, but sometimes the truth just gets in the way.

Lunsford's Fund Raising Debacle

2008-07-17T23:29:28-04:00

Yesterday, I talked about the importance of fund raising in a campaign. It is not just about the money. It is about organization. Its about the candidates ability to show he not only has support but can work hard to put together a winning team.

Lunsford raised a whopping $600,000 last quarter. Jennifer Duff from Cook Political Report called the paltry financial report "not impressive". No, the tally was not impressive at all. Some of the congressional candidates raised almost as much money as he did.

Personally, I don't think Lunsford has the desire to do the things necessary to win an election. I don't think he ever has been. I think running for office is just a rich playboy indulgence of his. Kind of like buying a yacht and spending a few months sailing around the Caribbean.

We don't need any more Kennedy's in the US Senate.