Thursday, 11 March 2010

Senate Fixes Amanda's Bill

Early on I opposed Amanda's bill because it would have allowed the government to legally track a citizen who hasn't committed a crime. The original bill would force anyone subjected to a domestic violence order to undergo electronic surveillance by the government. I understand the need to protect victims of domestic abuse, but snatching freedom away from law abiding citizens is not the answer. The senate today fixed the obvious flaw in the bill.

A Senate panel made significant changes to a bill Thursday that would allow judges to order electronic tracking devices to protect some victims in domestic violence cases.

One of the changes made by the Senate Judiciary Committee, which gave unanimous approval to the amended version of House Bill 1, known as “Amanda’s Bill,” would only allow electronic monitoring after a domestic violence order is violated.

These changes makes sense to me. If you violate a court order, you are no longer a law abiding citizen and thus could be subjected to electronic surveillance. The amendment to the bill helps to protect legitimate victims while shielding law abiding citizens from an atrocious abridgment of their freedoms.

Posted by brians at 9:33 PM in Kentucky Politics
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Wednesday, 10 March 2010

Bill Johnson Withdraws From GOP Primary

I first became aware of Bill Johnson as a candidate when he received an endorsement from Alan Keyes last year. That was all I needed to know about his conservative credentials. My kind of guy. The problem he had was his inability to raise money. I know he loaned himself a bunch of money, but that isn't the same as putting together an organization and raising millions of dollars as a candidate.

A lot of people might disagree with me on this next point or complain that it isn't fair, but I think the ability to raise funds is vitally important element of politics. First and most important it is a sign of organizational strength of a candidate. It shows that a candidate has the mettle it takes to win and hold political office. Secondly, like a free market system, it naturally whittles down the field to a few qualified candidates. While Bill Johnson was a strong conservative, he wasn't a good candidate. Especially for a U.S. Senate race.

Even so, he kept trying to proclaim himself a legitimate candidate. Even denying the results of the recent SurveyUSA poll that showed him with little support. Today he faced reality and dropped out of the race.

Todd County businessman Bill Johnson has decided to withdraw from Kentucky’s U.S. Senate race.

Johnson, a Republican, issued a statement Wednesday that said a poll conducted for his campaign Tuesday night showed results that “were not encouraging for a continued run.

“It is time to gracefully and honorably exit the race for the U.S. Senate.”

The reality is you can't just run for the U.S. Senate and expect to win. You have to build up a base of support over time. Bill Johnson appears to be a young guy. I hope he can find a local race to jump into and win. It will allow him to build the political base necessary to run for higher office somewhere down the line. I hope he does it because we need more conservatives like him serving in elected office.

Posted by brians at 10:06 PM in Kentucky Politics
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Tuesday, 9 March 2010

KY US Senate Poll - Red Edition

When Grayson won the race for Kentucky Secretary of State 6 years a go, it was obvious that he was an up and comer in the GOP. He followed up his first win with another victory 4 years later when Gov Fletcher was significantly beaten by Beshear. That victory was amazing since he accomplished it without gubernatorial coat tails. Even though he scored an impressive victory, I wondered how strong his name recognition really was in the state. I knew everyone involved in politics knew him, but I wondered how well known he was with the general electorate.

Three years after his re-election campaign, he saddled up to run for the U.S. Senate. What surprised me the most was that early polling only showed him with support in the 30s. That is when I knew that he was suffering from a lack of name recognition with the general electorate.

Enter Rand Paul. Paul used his father's celebrity status to not only raise a significant amount of money, but was able to leverage it into television appearances on the the national level. The media buzz he created along with Grayson's low key campaign propelled Paul to a commanding lead in the polls.

What is interesting about the latest SurveyUSA poll is how consistent Paul's lead is across pretty much every demographic. It is the same type of lead a well known candidate would have over a lesser known candidate. It seems like a lead built upon name id. So what does it mean?

I think the challenge for Grayson going forward will be to increase his name recognition with the electorate. His campaign has been too passive and hasn't really engaged the state. He still has 20% of the electorate which is undecided. I think he can grab a big chunk of it if he gets out there and defines himself with the public.

The challenge for Paul is a different one. He has to be able to defend his lead in the polls. His biggest challenge will be to retain 40+% he has amassed so far. Especially since he is the libertarian candidate in the race. It will be interesting to see how well he stands up to not only the pressure of the campaign, but the attacks on the soft spots of the libertarian ideology among Republicans.

One thing he can't afford to do is go on the defensive. No one wins a defensive war. Decisions like backing out of a forum because it might not be friendly is not a good idea. For one thing it brings more attention and news to the event than if he would have attended. These guys have been in a number of forums together and none of them have made much news. But now the story is Paul skipping out on the event. It makes him look weak and scared. A situation that is easily exploitable by his opponents.

Needless to say, it is going to be an interesting 10 weeks till primary day.

Posted by brians at 9:24 PM in Kentucky Politics
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Monday, 8 March 2010

KY US Senate Poll - Blue Edition

The latest poll from SurveyUSA has been released and Conway is in trouble. He finds himself down 18 to Mongiardo with 10 weeks until the primary. The biggest problem for Conway is the break down by regions.

Conway leads in Louisville, but trails by 40 points in the eastern and western parts of the state. The poll numbers tell me that Mongiardo has been able to successfully brand Conway as the big city slicker politician and have used it to bludgeon him in the more rural parts of the state. The only thing left in Conway's favor is his huge war chest. He should be able to swamp Mongiardo in paid media over the next 10 weeks..

The only question remains is can he utilize that advantage to redefine himself with voters in the state. Or has he been pigeonholed as a candidate. I just have a hard time believing he will be able to ingratiate himself with the rural electorate. But then again all he has to do is be respectable and win the central part of the state big.  Regardless, he is up the stream and needs to start paddling hard before his campaign goes over the waterfall.

Posted by brians at 9:15 PM in Kentucky Politics
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Saturday, 6 March 2010

Latest Rand Paul Ad

After some early skirmishes between Paul and Grayson, it seems that the campaigns are starting to get back to the basics of campaigning. The first step is introducing yourself to the electorate. The latest advertisement by Rand Paul is a solid attempt at it.



As a student of politics I love the imagery of this ad. Morning in Kentucky harkens back to Ronald Reagan's Morning in America campaign. The only question is will the average person connect it back to the Morning in America theme? This leads to my biggest problem with the ad. I think the imagery and feeling it generates is strong, but the overall message is weak. It tells us very little about Rand Paul and why we should vote for him. For that reason, I think they missed on an opportunity at creating a truly great ad.

Posted by brians at 5:29 PM in Kentucky Politics
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Friday, 5 March 2010

Ky Dems Are Getting Desperate

Kentucky Democrats are screwed. New polling in the state shows both Conway and Mongiardo trailing either Grayson or Paul by double digits. They are trailing anywhere from 13 to 18 points.  The lead is greater than the percentage of voters who are not sure. Such dismal inevitability leads to acts of desperation. Conway hoping to score points on Paul and Grayson's support of Sen Bunning ran the following advertisement.



Let's rewind the situation a bit. Why is he claiming that Bunning is throwing high and wild? Because Bunning decided to block a unanimous consent measure that blocked funding for out of work benefits. While it seems like he is scoring political points for his demagoguery, he is really opening himself up to a devastating line of attack. Bunning blocked the bill because he wanted it paid for rather than continuing to run up the federal debt. I guess Mr Conway is OK with spending money he doesn't have.

The reason we are having a voter revolt this year is because of massive debt piled up by irresponsible spending. Apparently, Conway is against what the voters in this country want. It is difficult winning an election when you are on the wrong side of an important issue.

But the desperation doesn't end with a wild stab at populism. He just makes up stuff about his record. I remember him continuing Stumbo's law suit on "price gouging" by big oil. I also remember Conway joining the national lawsuit against big pharmaceuticals. What I don't remember is hearing about him winning any of those cases. So he is just making crap up about saving taxpayers millions of dollars.

The biggest reason this whole ad reeks of desperation is that he is attacking the Republican front runners in the primary season. Last time I checked he was running in the Democratic primary against Mongiardo. Talking about a wild pitch. I think this ad is much wilder than anything Bunning ever threw.

Posted by brians at 6:15 PM in Kentucky Politics
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Wednesday, 3 March 2010

Grayson's New Ad Is Good

Political television ads are the primary tool of communication that candidates running for state wide office have to connect with the voters of the state. That is why it is important to first raise enough money to be able to utilize the resource. But after the money is raised, it is even more important to use television effectively. Trey Grayson's latest ad is a great example of using that medium effectively early in a campaign.


I like two things about this ad. First it provides a basic statement of principles. It tells people why he is running for the U.S. Senate. Secondly, it provides an example of how he has applied the principles of smaller government in his currently elected role. I think the ad is a solid effort at defining who he is as a candidate.

My only question is why he didn't lead with this ad? I think this would have been a perfect opening move. Instead he decided to attack Rand Paul with his first two efforts. I know those ads put the Paul campaign on the defensive, but wouldn't the Grayson campaign been better served doing that later in the race? I just don't understand the political calculus in their decision making. Although they got off to a bit of a shaky start, they seem to be back on track with this latest effort.

Posted by brians at 5:35 PM in Kentucky Politics
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Tuesday, 2 March 2010

Environmentalists Tired of Talking - Talk Some More

Environmentalists in Kentucky are tired of being ignored.
“We have petitioned, marched, sung, written, lobbied, testified and pleaded — all to no avail,” Berry said. “But today we declare that business as usual in Frankfort — long intolerable — has now become unacceptable.”
So what are they going to do about it?

The environmentalists, members of Kentuckians for the Commonwealth (KFTC), took turns reading a Declaration of Independence-type statement.

It called on the state’s political leaders to break their close ties with coal, remove legislators with ties to coal companies from leadership positions, and call for an end to “extreme and sometimes violent speech” directed at people who speak out against coal in the coalfields.

Wow! They are tired of talking to legislators so their solution is to talk some more. Freaking hilarious. I am sure the legislators are quaking in their boots over this powerful "declaration".



Posted by brians at 9:07 PM in Kentucky Politics
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Friday, 26 February 2010

Grayson Continues Applying Heat

Trey Grayson continues applying the heat to Rand Paul campaign. This time he strikes Paul on national security and military funding.


I have to give some credit to the Grayson team. They keep finding juicy sound bites Rand Paul has made over the last two years. Of course the Paul campaign responded to the attack.
Dr. Paul has clearly stated that the most important function of the federal government is national defense. Rand supports robust funding for our military. Under Dr. Paul’s vision, the percentage of our federal budget spent on national defense would increase.
While the percentage of budget would increase under Paul that doesn't mean funding wouldn't decrease as well. They even admit as much.
Dr. Paul believes there is room to cut waste from all budgets.
So what does he want to cut from the military I wonder?
One particular area Rand will target is the billions of dollars we waste on foreign aid.
Here is the one area where I vehemently disagree with Rand. I do not believe in isolating the U.S. from the rest of the world. Foreign aid is a pittance of our budget and actually does good in the world. First it keeps our relationships with many of the world's small countries on good terms which is good for trade. Secondly, it helps keep the world at peace through increased stability.

Personally, I would rather we tackle the parts of the budget that are strangling our economy such as runaway entitlements and an ever expanding bureaucracy before we isolate ourselves from the rest of the world.

One thing is for sure, Grayson has gained the upper hand by putting Paul on the defensive this week. At the same time, he is admitting that he is trailing in the polls. Joe Arnold says as much in his article.
By putting Paul on the defensive and introducing possible doubts in Paul's conservative bonafides, the week belongs to Grayson.  Yet, the fact that Trey Grayson's first TV and radio ads talk as much about Rand Paul as they do Trey Grayson acknowledges that Paul is leading the GOP primary.
With the Democrats and Republicans ripping each other it is going to be an interesting couple of months.

Posted by brians at 7:34 AM in Kentucky Politics
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Wednesday, 24 February 2010

Good Political Ad

I have been critical of the advertisements run by both Grayson and Paul so far in the primary season. That begs the question, what do I consider a good early campaign advertisement? Personally, I like a simple positive statement of principle. The winner this year is 6th Congressional District candidate Mike Templeman. Below is his initial advertise.


His ad has a simple and up beat message. All the while introducing himself to the electorate. He comes across as a candidate who any Republican would be happy to vote for on election day. It is the type of ad I would lead off with if I were running for office.

Posted by brians at 9:46 PM in Kentucky Politics
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