Thursday, 2 September 2010

All Is Well!

A month ago, Lally the GOP nominee in the 3rd district came out with an internal poll that showed him in a dead heat with Yarmuth!. It was scoffed at by not only the Yarmuth! campaign but by the media as well. We were told that Yarmuth!'s far left agenda was what the people in the 3rd district wanted and Yarmuth! would easily win re-election.

Fast forward to today and the latest SurveyUSA poll on the race.

Yarmuth!47
Lally45

That is pretty much the definition of a statistical dead heat. Yet, Yarmuth! tries to act like everything is alright.

"This race is just beginning," Yarmuth countered, "The community has no idea who Todd Lally is."

And Yarmuth says voters will learn that Lally is extreme.

Hmmm, sounds familiar... where have I heard this before?



But in all seriousness, the Yarmuth! campaign has to be very worried. Lally's name recognition can't be that high and he is already in a statistical dead heat with Yarmuth! Even worse, Yarmuth is polling under 50% which is the danger zone for any encumbent. Sadly I think today we also got a peek at the coming Yarmuth strategy. He is obviously planning to attack Lally as an extremist while talking about all of the pork he brought to Louisville.

That strategy seems eerily similar to the strategy Northup used against Yarmuth! 4 years ago. Remember, 4 years ago was also a wave year. November could be very interesting in the Ville.



Posted by brians at 10:35 PM in Kentucky Politics
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Wednesday, 1 September 2010

Great Line

Moffett, the underdog for the GOP nomination, had a great line about the David Williams / Richie Farmer team.
Moffett, who is active in the conservative tea party movement, said Wednesday in a statement that “running against someone who has signed off on all the debt Kentuckians are struggling with now and who has supported lots of tax increases kind of makes me feel like I'm already facing a Democrat.”
I still don't think he will win, but I imagine his campaign will be interesting.

Posted by brians at 8:52 PM in Kentucky Politics
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It's On! Williams/Farmer vs Beshear/Abramson

I have been silent on the gubernatorial race next year waiting to see who was going to run against the Beshear "juggernaut"...... sorry I had to stop and laugh at the thought of Beshear as a "juggernaut". Anyway, it looks the Republican challenger will be Gubernatorial candidate Sen President David Williams along with Agricultural Commissioner and former UK basketball star Richie Farmer as Lt Governor. (Yeah I know they have a contested primary, but I don't see Moffet having the same fortune that Rand Paul had. For starters he doesn't have the money list that Paul had and will probably fall significantly behind Williams/Farmer in fund raising)

Today Williams and Farmer announced their decision to team up.
Senate President David Williams  and Agriculture Commissioner Richie Farmer announced Wednesday that they would form a ticket to run in next year's governor's race, giving Republicans what many believe is their party's best chance to capture the office.
I think the campaign will revolve around Beshear's competence as governor which Williams outlined in the press conference.
“We believe the state is adrift, and we need a positive, pro-jobs agenda,” Williams said. He said he and Farmer “have a common belief that we need a change in leadership.”
Heck we can look at the last legislative session for proof enough that we have been rudderless in the governor's office
  • Beshear released a budget that is DOA in both the Republican controlled Senate AND the Democratic controlled House.
  • Beshear was more likely to be found at a fund raiser than in the halls of the capital during the session
  • Beshear was no where to be found at the end of the sesion when a compromise was needed
  • Beshear decides to mediate a compromise after the session when pressure was great to pass a budget and then took a week to come up with what was a fairly straight forward compromise
Can that behaviour be called "leadership"? I don't think so, and I think it will be an oppening for Williams to exploit against Beshear.


Posted by brians at 8:49 PM in Kentucky Politics
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Tuesday, 31 August 2010

Beshear Has Obviously Been Doing a Good Job

Now that former Lt Gov Pence has told us what a wonderful governor we have in Beshear. In fact, Beshear is so spectacular that he deserves re-election and won't even be seriously challenged. I wonder if this is what Pence meant when he said Beshear is "doing a good job"?
Kentucky is among the worst markets for job seekers, with 5.53 unemployed workers for each job opening posted online.

That's according to a new analysis of the job market by Juju.com, a search engine that compares traditional unemployment rates with the number of online job postings that it finds in each state.
Gee I think that is a mark of a great something, but I am not sure that something is leadership. I guess it could if Beshear was leading us to the status of the worst state in the Union. With all seriousness, I think these results illustrate how little our governor has done to attract and grow business in Kentucky. The only business he has seriously tried to attract during his tenure is the gambling industry. A mission in which he has failed horribly.

The reality is we have stagnated under Beshear's rudderless leadership and hopefully we can find someone new to actually lead our great state next year.



Posted by brians at 9:46 PM in Kentucky Politics
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Monday, 30 August 2010

Pence Returns To Push The Knife Further Into The GOP

I remember back to the Fletcher administration when Gov Fletcher's Lt Governor Steve Pence decided to go overboard and back Stumbo's war on Fletcher. I remeber at the time the party establishment cheered these actions. I remember being at a GOP pizza party in Louisville when Pence received a standing ovation.

I wonder how these establishment types like thier Lt Governor now?
Former Republican Lt. Gov. Steve Pence said he is planning a fundraiser for Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear in Louisville next month.

Pence, who was lieutenant governor with Republican former Gov. Ernie Fletcher from 2003 to 2007, told the Lexington Herald-Leader that Beshear deserves another four years in office.

“I don't see anybody on the horizon challenging him,” said Pence, an attorney. “I think he has done a good job. He's made some very tough decisions.”
Amazing. This supposed Republican is endorsing one of the most incompenent administrations this state has ever seen. I am trying to figure out how anyone with any intelligence could say Beshear has done a good job while keeping a straight face. So much for Pence being a "great Republican" who stands by his principles. He is endorsing Beshear even before the Republican nominating process begins.

I just wished that Pence would have switched to being a slimy Democrat four years ago when he came out of the closet. It would have saved us the lame "Republican" endorsing a Democrat story last week. Oh yeah, I think this endorsement validates the poor dispostion I formed for the man four years ago.

Posted by brians at 8:50 PM in Kentucky Politics
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Conway's Bizarre First Commercial

Jack Conway has begun the paid media battle today by launching his first advertisement.



I am at a loss. I have no idea what the point of this commercial is. It sounds like he is running for sheriff, attorney general, mayor, or governor. It doesn't sound like a candidate running for a legislative seat. My favorite part of the ad is when they throw in his "A" rating with the NRA. It had nothing in common with the rest of the ad. I guess the random position insertion that is supposed to make him look like a "conservative" Democrat.

I don't think his position on guns is going to help him considering his position on Obamacare, tax cuts, spending, cap and trade, and other liberal issues of the day. All in all, this first ad is absolutely horrible and illustrates how thin his appeal to the electorate truly is. I hope they have something better down the road or they are going to get beaten like a drum in two months.

Posted by brians at 8:48 PM in Kentucky Politics
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Tuesday, 17 August 2010

Paul's Political Inexperience Feeds The Non-Issues Campaign

One of the problems with making a run for the U.S. Senate your first race is that you have a huge experience deficit that your opponents can exploit to their advantage. Experience matters. Without it, a candidate is prone to gaffes under the constant scrutiny. Unfortunately for Rand, his inexperience is being used by his political opponents to constantly feed their desire to change the topic. Let's look at the last two weeks.
  1. Rand Paul calls fancy farm a wild event
  2. Rand Paul says drug use not a 'pressing issue' in eastern KY.
Yeah, I know he clarified his remarks on point 2. But that is besides the point. He made statements that allowed the media to run with another story. They are going to do this every time he makes a semi-controversial statement. It is all his opponents have at this point. They sure as heck aren't going to focus on the economy, Obamacare, the debt, or any of the issues that are top priorities of people today because those issues favor Paul. A more seasoned campaigner would have avoided many of the pratfalls that the Paul campaign has endured.

In a normal political year, the hit job done on Paul by the media would have sunk his campaign. One only has to go back six years to see its effectiveness on Sen Bunning. Fortunately, this isn't a normal political year. The fear, uncertainty, and doubt being heaped on Paul has done little to move his poll numbers. The good news is that the lack of poll movement has to be frustrating the hell to the left. Because if they can't get movement now when they can control the story, how are they going to get movement once the paid media begins to work its magic? The reality of the situation is that the Paul campaign ads are going to be a heck of a lot more effective than the Conway ads.They have to be because he is on the popular side of the most pressing issues of the day.

In this regards, Paul is very fortunate with the timing of his election campaign. Any other year and I doubt he would have the lead he currently enjoys. All of which highlights how difficult it is to win a top race anywhere when you are a political neophyte.

Posted by brians at 4:18 AM in Kentucky Politics
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Thursday, 12 August 2010

KY Democrats Practice A Wee Bit Of Hyperbole

This weekend a story came out in GQ that claimed Paul kidnapped someone in college and made her do drugs. Well, except that wasn't the case. It was nothing more that a stupid hazing prank.

But the KY Democrats are up in arms over the story. Now they are going so far as to say that he isn't "morally"qualified to hold office.
The Kentucky Democratic Party says revelations about Rand Paul in a GQ Magazine excerpt "call into question his moral qualifications to be Kentucky's voice in the United States Senate."
This is hilarious. The Democratic party of Kentucky is going to call into question the moral qualifications of a Republican for a college prank. This after defending the likes of Bill Clinton, Paul Patton, and even Greg Stumbo. All of whom have moral dilemmas far surpassing a stupid hazing incident from college.

I have to give the Dems credit. They are absolutely shameless in their attempts to change the subject in the US Senate Race.

Posted by brians at 9:07 PM in Kentucky Politics
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Wednesday, 11 August 2010

Fancy Farm Speech Recap

I know it has been a few days since the speeches of fancy farm, but I thought I would give up my thoughts on each of the major speakers.

Gov Beshear - The governor gave a passionate speech taking credit for other peoples work... um, I mean about his leadership. You see he worked in a bipartisan fashion to reduce spending and balance the budget. Oh wait no he didn't. That is what David Williams and Greg Stumbo did while Behsear fiddled. Yeah, we call this history revisionism. Let's recap.

The legislative session started and Beshear submitted a budget that neither party took serious. Both started from scratch and spent a lot of time trying to meet. During the entire session, the only thing Beshear did was raise money for his re-election campaign. Needless to say the session ended without a budget as both sides had differences on it.

Instead of helping out with the session, Beshear was forced into calling a special session. Before the session Stumbo and Williams pleaded for him to make a compromise. At this point Beshear's team actually did some work. It was a couple months too late, but better late than never. And he calls this his successful leadership.... yeah.

My favorite part of the speech which he repeated twice is that Conway's views are "mainstream". It reminded me of a quote from Margaret Thatcher. "Being powerful is like being a lady. If you have to tell people you are, you aren't."

Sen Mitch McConnell - He had the easiest job of anyone. All he did was equate Conway with the highly unpopular Obama and Pelosi. That wasn't very hard to do. What I found interesting was the fact that he didn't bring Harry Reid into the equation. Apparently their is an unwritten rule that leaders of the other party won't interfere in the other leaders re-election campaigns. I thought it was a classy move by McConnell unlike Sen Franken.

Jack Conway - Bless his heart. He had a difficult row to hold. He was passionate, but he didn't have anything to say. He rambled on about his AG leadership although he is running for a legislative position and not an executive position. He also talked about coming down hard on the fat cats. You know the ones that create jobs. That is a great way to spur the economy. He also attacked Paul as a great waffler. Didn't really hear anything about the economy. Anything about the massive debt. Anything about immigration. You know the important issues of the day. I wonder why?

Rand Paul - He took his layup. It was dry and boring speech kinda like watching someone shoot a layup. But it was effective. He talked about government intrusion, massive debt, and how it was suffocating our economy. It was the meat and potatoes conservatism. The stuff voters in this state eat up and ask for a second helping. This is why he leads in every poll while the media tries desperately to change the topic.

Posted by brians at 8:30 PM in Kentucky Politics
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Saturday, 7 August 2010

KY US Senate Race To Kick Off Today

Today is Fancy Farm. The traditional start to the fall campaign here in Kentucky. It is a special event where candidates stand up in front of raucous crowds and deliver stem winding speeches. On top of that each campaign generally provides a theatrical side show satirizing their opponents. If you are a political junky it is one of the best political events in the country.

With that said, let's take a look at the state of the race heading into Fancy Farm. As noted here the summer was filled with media stories about Paul that were targeted at changing the subject. How well did those attacks work? Apparently, not very well. The latest polls all show Paul enjoying a 8-9 point lead over Conway. What does that mean heading into the fall? It means bad news for Conway. He really needed to take the lead at some point this summer. It will prove very difficult for him to make up ground. Especially since Paul enjoys the high ground on almost every top issue of the day.

Where will that lead in the fall? With Paul on the high ground, I expect a Pickett's charge from Conway at some point in the fall. I suspect it will be about as effective as it was at Gettysburg.

Posted by brians at 11:35 AM in Kentucky Politics
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