Tuesday, 13 May 2008
Inside The Poll Numbers
« Nothing To See Here, Move Along Now | Main | Are West Virginians A Bunch Of Racists? »Last night the Lexington Herald released poll numbers showing how Fischer and Lunsford stack up against McConnell in the general election. Not surprisingly McConnell leads by 12 points against either candidate. The poll also shows McConnell's approval ratings at 48% with a disapproval rating of 44%.
At first glance, these number's don't look all that great for McConnell. But when one begins to examine the internals, a problem with polling sample jumps out as problematic.
| Age | |
| 18-29 | 17% |
| 30-44 | 31% |
| 45-59 | 32% |
| 60+ | 20% |
The elderly (60+) are polled at roughly the same numbers as the 18-29 age group? I find it difficult to believe that the poll's distribution represents the actual voting percentages for each age group. The 60+ group will almost assuredly be a much larger percentage of those voting in the fall than the percentages represented by this poll.
Interestingly enough when we break down vote and approval rating by age we see an interesting phenomenon. First let's look at the approval numbers
| Age | Approve/Disapprove |
| 18-29 | 37%/54% |
| 30-44 | 54%/38% |
| 45-59 | 45%/50% |
| 60+ | 57%/33% |
Hmm, the most underrepresented group in the poll provide McConnell the highest approval ratings. Coincidence? Now let's look at the most likely match up this fall, McConnell vs Lunsford.
| Age | McConnell - Lunsford |
| 18-29 | 44%-41% |
| 30-44 | 53%-38% |
| 45-59 | 45%-39% |
| 60+ | 52%-32% |
Again we see the underrepresented group, 60+, has McConnell with a 20 point lead. Adjusting the poll for reality, two things become apparent. McConnell's real approval rating is some where over 50% and he is really leading Lunsford and Fischer by a minimum of 14 points. One thing is for sure, McConnell is in a more comfortable position than the Herald would lead you to believe.
