Sunday, 29 June 2008
Polling In Kentucky
« Second Amendment an Individual Right | Main | The Problem With Soccer »It has been some time since we have taken a look at polling results in Kentucky. Let's start with the presidential race. I know the left has great hope that Obama can win Kentucky, but the reality appears to be quite different.
Rasmussen shows McCain with a 16 point lead while Survey USA has McCain with a 12 point load. At a time where Obama holds a 4-5 point lead on McCain in national polls he still trails by double digits in Kentucky. Obama would have to be leading the national race by at least 10-15 points before Kentucky would be considered to be in play.
Given the historical trends in presidential elections. One which generally shows the Democratic candidates shooting to an early lead and faltering down the stretch. It seems to me to be a wee bit far fetched to believe Obama can or will win Kentucky.
Obama's abysmal showing in Kentucky will prove to be a big drag on Lunsford's chances to beat McConnell. While the latest poll shows that McConnell only leads by 4 points, I find the results to be a bit dubious. Why?
Take a look at the cross sections by region:
| Region | Results |
| Western Kentucky | 54-42 |
| Louisville | 42-58 |
| Northern Kentucky | 54-40 |
| Eastern Kentucky | 56-41 |
Is it believable that McConnell has stronger support in the northern and eastern Kentucky than in western Kentucky? Especially since western Kentucky has traditionally been McConnell's stronghold. Adjusting for reality, I imagine McConnell is probably leading by around 8 points in the state. A solid lead that he should be able to easily defend in the coming months.
What about the Congressional races? McCain's 18 point lead and McConnell's 12 point lead in western Kentucky point to an easy win by Guthrie over Boswell. But we won't know until we see actual polling on this race.
On the flip side, the only place Obama is doing well is in Louisville. His 12 point lead in Louisville appears to be a boost for Yarmuth! in the race. The results are reflected in the polling that shows Yarmuth! with a double digit lead over Northup. As the presidential race tightens, Northup should be able to close this gap, but will it be enough in a year that will be tough for Republicans?
