Tuesday, 1 July 2008
More Polling Data on Congressional Races
« The Left and Judges | Main | Beshear: Continuing To Take Care Of His Own »The other day, I was musing on the numbers for the second district congressional race. I thought Guthrie would have a comfortable lead because McCain and McConnell were both up by large numbers in the second district. Polling data has surfaced that nullifies my original observation. It shows that Boswell has a 3 point lead on Guthrie. They are in a statistical dead heat as they head into July.
Looking at the cross tabs in the poll, I found some weirdness in the numbers by age group.
| 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | |
| Guthrie | 41 | 48 | 40 | 49 |
| Boswell | 51 | 45 | 51 | 39 |
I wasn't surprised to see Boswell leading among younger voters. They tend to be more liberal on the political spectrum. Usually as the groups get older they tend to vote more conservatively. But the 50 to 65 group bucked the trend by a statistically large number. The spread was greater for the 50 to 65 than the 18-34. I find this really strange. I am not sure what it means, but it is seems very odd.
We will have to wait for another poll to determine if the numbers are consistent or some weird anomaly. In the end I was surprised to see Boswell with the slight lead. I guess his name recognition from holding a statewide office and his contested primary has given him an ID boost in early polling. It will be interesting to see if he can maintain the lead once Guthrie starts spending money to increase his voter ID. I still think in the end Obama will be too much of a drag for Boswell to win.
On a final note, polling has come out showing Davis with a solid lead over his opponent, Michael Kelley in the 4th district. Since Kelley has raised little money, I suspect that is as close as he will get.
