The race for mayor in Louisville has a crowded Democratic field and a surprisingly competitive Republican field.
Over the weekend, poll numbers came out for the mayor's race.
Let's break down the field starting with the Republicans.
Thieneman holds a slight lead over Heiner 34-30 with Robertson way behind at 6%. That leaves over 30% undecided which is a huge wild card in the race. Personally, I am a bit surprised that Thieneman doesn't have a larger lead since his name was heavily associated with the movement against the library tax. He was also in the paper a lot over his botched Congressional race two years ago. Or maybe Republicans remember his disgraceful exit from that race and it is holding him back. Only time will tell.
Regardless, both candidates are going to have their work cut out for them in the coming weeks. I imagine their message will get drowned out by the crowded Democratic field and race for U.S. Senate. They are going to have to try to cut through all of the noise and lift their name id if they hope to win.
While the Republican side has two candidates fighting for the spot, the Democratic side is a complete mess. Fischer leads the way with 20% followed by Tandy with 17%, King 12%, Allen at 8% and four other candidates sitting around 2%. 32% of the electorate is still undecided.
It doesn't surprise me at all that Fischer leads the way. He is coming off a run for the U.S. Senate two years ago and should lead in name recognition. I think it is a bit of a surprise that Tandy is in second and King in third. I figure King would have much greater name recognition. Especially after the debacle of buying his daughter a judgeship and his tenure as president of the Metro Council. Or maybe the fiasco with his daughter may be hurting him. We can only hope.
At this point the polls tell us one thing about the race. It is going to be a wild finish. No one has a solid lead and all the top candidates are close to each other. There is no telling who is going to win the race.
With both races being this close and with so many undecideds, the race is going to come down to two things. First and foremost it will be about name recognition. This will be an uphill battle with so many candidates and a highly competitive battle for U.S. Senate. Each campaign is going to have to scramble to eek out as much media (both free and paid) time as possible.
The other determining factor will be campaign organization. The team that can identify supporters and get them to the polls in the greater number will have an excellent chance of making up ground on more popular candidates in this wide open field. I don't expect any of these candidates to win by a large margin.
Notice I didn't say anything about the issues. Issues will have nothing to do with the primary winner. It will all be about name id and get out the vote efforts. There are just too many people in the races for the issues to play much of a role.